Greg makes a pretty good case (here and here) that turnout was as good as you could reasonably expect in the uncontested Democratic districts, thus rebutting HCDP Chair Gerry Birnbirg's assertion that this was our primary failure in 2004. That's what I get for doing a cursory analysis. The best GOTV effort we can make starts with strong candidates delivering a strong message - the rest will follow.
One number that should have jumped out at everyone regardless of their position on the turnout/message axis is that of Moldy Joe Nixon. Running against an unfunded, unknown independent candidate, Nixon was named on only 53.76% of the ballots, meaning he barely outperformed Martha Wong in the contested HD134 race. Going through the precinct data, District 133 voted for George Bush at a 54.6% rate, which is to say dead on even with Harris County as a whole. You think maybe a serious Democratic challenger could have moved the numbers in HD133 a bit? Hopefully, we'll get a chance to find out in 2006. Put this one on your radar now as a top-tier pickup opportunity, and ask yourself again why we didn't have anyone running this time around. Precinct comparison data is beneath the More link.
And just because I can't help myself, some of those precincts where Nixon and Bush got less than 40% of the vote had crappy turnout. If wishes were horses, let me tell you...
Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 17, 2004 to Election 2004 | TrackBackPrecinct Votes Nixon Nixon Pct Bush Bush Pct ====================================================== 130 1851 1383 74.7 1393 75.3 338 2177 859 39.5 850 39.0 356 2135 1356 63.5 1377 64.5 395 1363 939 68.9 963 70.7 429 600 273 45.5 282 47.0 437 1555 1085 69.8 1124 72.3 438 1425 1030 72.3 1051 73.8 457 1331 309 23.2 301 22.6 483 1587 918 57.8 918 57.8 487 843 251 29.8 262 31.1 492 1795 1057 58.9 1099 61.2 493 1350 890 65.9 904 70.0 499 1840 1340 72.8 1353 73.5 503 688 261 37.9 275 40.0 504 1754 1187 67.7 1198 68.3 508 1625 706 43.4 733 45.1 511 1301 823 63.3 803 61.7 546 72 37 51.4 42 58.3 559 1806 699 38.7 726 40.2 565 1446 315 21.8 330 22.8 620 2828 1501 53.1 1522 53.8 624 556 261 46.9 281 50.5 625 1342 863 64.3 839 62.5 626 1853 1072 57.5 1057 57.0 706 379 219 57.8 223 58.8 727 1343 514 38.3 523 38.9 765 1992 901 45.2 934 46.9 882 569 135 23.7 134 23.6Totals 39406 21184 53.8 21497 54.6
I think there's a pick up opportunity in Arlington/Grand Prairie with Toby Goodman (especially in an off year where Bush's support won't matter as much). The district just switched to majority minority, and Goodman isn't winning by very many votes.
There's also another couple areas in Dallas County that Dems should look at.
The Dem opponent in Arl. didn't impress that much (an unnamed organization offered to start working to do some turnout efforts in Dem base vote areas, and he never returned repeated calls). With real support and a real campaign, who knows?
Posted by: Brennan on November 18, 2004 10:44 PM