From the "Ain't gonna happen" files

I don't know how rumors like this get started, but for some reason Roll Call has seen fit to write an article speculating on who might run for Congress in CD22 if Tom DeLay were to retire.

Texas Republicans say there is absolutely no reason to hold onto this list, but just in case: Look for several GOP officials to run for Congress in the 22nd district if indicted Rep. Tom DeLay (R) chooses not to seek re-election.

Receiving immediate mention from the chairman of the Fort Bend County Republican Party: Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace; state Sen. Kyle Janek; and state Rep. Charlie Howard. Others also would likely jump into the race, said Eric Thode, who heads the GOP in DeLay’s home county, though he emphasized that the chances of the race opening up are "near zero."

That prospect "is a hypothetical, wrapped in an improbable, wrapped in a nonstarter," added DeLay spokesman Kevin Madden. "Mr. DeLay is running for re-election. He is experiencing incredible grass-roots support, as well as incredible support on the fundraising side."

For once in my life, I'm going to agree with Eric Thode. It's inconceivable to me that DeLay would not run in 2006. Given that he obviously cares about his legacy, which is why he's fighting to retain his leadership position in the House despite the felony indictments against him, I can't see him stepping down this late in the game. I believe he'd have announced a retirement months in advance, and would have a handpicked successor to support by now. This is just not the way that someone like DeLay leaves the stage.

That would be about all I'd have to say about this story, except that it contains some very questionable assertions that I just can't let go. So let's have a look at them:

DeLay campaign spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said Tuesday the Congressman has collected around 1,000 voter signatures, twice as many as is needed to file to run for Congress in Texas if a candidate wants to forgo the $3,125 filing fee.

The filing period began Saturday and runs through Jan. 2. Flaherty indicated DeLay will file to run for re-election just as soon as the signatures on the petition have been verified. DeLay is choosing to file for re-election using voter signatures to underscore the level of support he has in the district.

How in the world does getting 1000 signatures on a petition measure one's level of support in a Congressional district? Mike Fjetland has gotten on the primary ballot in CD22 before by collecting signatures. Several Democratic candidates that I can think of are going that route this year. Is that a measure of their support in those districts as well?

Thode, chairman of the Fort Bend County Republican Party, took issue with the [recent poll that showed DeLay trailing a "generic Democrat"] because it suggests more support for Democrats generally than he believes is plausible based on the demographics of the 22nd district.

In assessing DeLay’s vulnerability, too much is made of the fact that DeLay won re-election last year with just 55 percent of the vote, Thode said. Though that was the Congressman’s smallest margin of victory since he was elected in 1984, it was his first election in the newly drawn 22nd district.

Prior to 2003, Thode explained, Texas districts - drawn by Democrats - had packed as many Republicans into certain districts as possible to minimize the number of GOP seats. As such, he said, it is only natural that the victory margins for Republican Congressmen decreased following a redistricting that added five GOP districts to Texas' map.

President Bush outperformed DeLay in the district in last year’s presidential race by 9 points. But Thode said using that comparison to size up DeLay’s prospects is unfair, as Bush did better than most Republicans last year with blacks, women, Hispanics, Jews and other swing or Democratic-leaning voting blocs.

It's true that most Republican Congressfolk who ran opposed in both 2002 and 2004 garnered a higher percentage of the vote in 2002. That is the point of a partisan gerrymander, after all, to disperse your supports in such a way as to maximize the number of seats you win without greatly endangering any existing incumbent. Thode's assertion about comparing DeLay to Bush, however, is just baloney. Compare how DeLay did to all statewide Republicans in contested elections in 2004:

Candidate  Vote Total   Vote Pct

================================

Bush          177,378     64.37%

Carillo       159,309     62.04%

Brister       165,392     63.16%

Keasler       160,876     61.64%

DeLay         150,377     57.31%

The percentage is for the straight-up two-party totals, so Delay gets a boost here over his actual 55.11% total. Is Thode contending that Victor Carillo, Scott Brister, and Mike Keasler "did better than most Republicans last year with blacks, women, Hispanics, Jews and other swing or Democratic-leaning voting blocs", too? Or is it maybe that DeLay did worse with swing and Republican-leaning voting blocs? (Spreadsheet with precinct totals available here.)

"The district is solidly Republican," Thode said. "There has been no decrease in the Republican-leaning vote. Therefore, a poll that says a Democrat is preferred over a Republican 49 percent to 36 percent is suspect at face value."

Doesn't that contradict what you just said about victory margins for Republicans decreasing after the 2003 redistricting? Which is it - the number of Republicans is the same as it was before, or it was reduced as part of the effort to draw more Republican districts? And how do you square that with this?

"When you're drawing the lines, you have to set the example," DeLay explained late last week as he traveled his district during the Presidents' Day recess. "If you're going to maximize the number of Republicans that are elected, everybody can't have an 80 percent district. If you're the guy that's sort of leading the effort, you can't tell your members, 'Well, I'm going to dilute yours, but I'm going to pack mine.' "

"In doing all that, we tried to be as fair to everybody as possible," he added. "And I had to take my hit, too."

So did he take his hit or not? You can't have it both ways.

Anyway. To get back to the original point, no way in hell does DeLay step down now. Maybe some day, if he doesn't get convicted or voted out first, but not today.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on December 07, 2005 to Election 2006 | TrackBack