Sleepers

As noted before, there's an article in Capitol Inside that discusses some "sleeper" races for the State House and for Congress.

The list of potential sleepers in Texas House races includes Democrats Diane Trautman of Kingwood, Sherrie Matula of Houston, Phillip Shinoda of Dallas and Karen Felthauser of Round Rock. Several more sleeper campaigns are starting to percolate in other parts of the state as well.

Trautman - a former teacher, principal and college professor - has been running an aggressive campaign against Republican State Rep. Joe Crabb in a bid for the House District 127 seat that takes in part of Atascocita and Channelview and a slice of Houston in northeast Harris County. Trautman has rallied teachers behind her campaign while taking Crabb to task for his vote in support of school vouchers and his role as the chairman of the House Redistricting Committee that drafted the congressional map that Tom DeLay inspired and the Legislature approved in 2003. Trautman has support from some Republicans in the suburban district as well.

[...]

Shinoda and Matula received a boost last week when they were endorsed by the Texas Parent PAC, which had a successful debut earlier this year with primary victories on both sides of the aisle including several key upsets. Shinoda, an Asian-American Democrat, is competing against Republican State Rep. Will Hartnett for the HD 114 seat in a north central Dallas district where GOP voters have outnumbered Democrats by almost two to one in elections held during the past few years. Shinoda, who opened his own consulting firm last year after a stint as a University of Texas at Arlington official, would become the Legislature's third member of Asian descent if he could find a way to beat Hartnett. Shinoda was born in Colorado after his parents had fled California to avoid being sent to internment camps where Japanese-Americans were being detained during World War II. He spent most of his childhood in Dallas and has been heavily involved in civic activities there as an adult.

Matula - a retired teacher and former school board member - is challenging Republican State Rep. John Davis of Houston in HD 129 in southeast Harris County. A longtime Democratic activist, Matula is a member of the Texas State Teachers Association board and a Clear Lake Area Symphony Society member who's in line to be president. Matula had raised about one-third as much money as Davis and had less than half as much cash on hand at the end of June. But Matula's fundraising fortunes could take a turn for the better if she can continue to rally education interests and others behind her campaign in the final four weeks of the race. Matula is pushing ethics reform amid questions that have been raised about Davis' campaign spending. But HD 129 - like the districts represented by Hartnett and Crabb - has a substantial Republican majority that will be difficult for a Democratic contender to overcome.

Felthauser is challenging Republican State Rep. Mike Krusee of Round Rock in a district where Republican statewide candidates received six out of every 10 votes in 2004. That makes it a tough district for a Democrat to win but not insurmountable. Felthauser, a substitute teacher who's a member of the TSTA and the Texas Federation of Teachers, is one of several sleeper candidates who have significant support from education forces unhappy with House members who supported the leadership's school finance plans. But Felthauser and her fellow Williamson County Democrats are hitting Krusee hardest for his role as the sponsor of the transportation package that included toll roads that have proven to be controversial and unpopular in some areas of the state.

Houston businessman Mark McDavid is a potential sleeper candidate in a race against second-term Republican State Rep. Dwayne Bohac in HD 138 - a west Houston district where the minority population outnumbers white residents. Republican statewide contenders garnered 60 percent of the vote in Bohac's district two years ago. McDavid, nonetheless, raised slightly more cash for his campaign than Bohac reported during the first six months of the year - and now he's planning to file an ethics complaint against the incumbent in connection with a fundraising mailer that he says didn't meet disclosure requirements. McDavid's grandmother, Constance McDavid, was a longtime Harris County treasurer and leader in the County Treasurers ' Association of Texas.

Several more educators - Sharon Cade Davis of Palestine, Scott Cornuaud of Quinlan and Ernie Casbeer of Oglesby - could be considered potential sleeper candidates at this point in the competition in races against State Reps. Byron Cook of Corsicana, Dan Flynn of Van and Sid Miller of Stephenville respectively. Cornuaud, who practices law in Greenville, has been a member of the Quinlan school board for the past five years. Davis is a Democratic activist who's been campaigning full time since retiring from the Region VII Education Service Center earlier this year. Casbeer teaches government and history at McGregor High School near Waco. Casbeer, Conuaud and Davis still face uphill battles in districts that have been voting about two-to-one Republican in recent years.

Some of these battles are more uphill than others. Here's a comparison of the statewide numbers for each of these districts for 2004:

Dist  Democrat   Bush Carillo Brister Keasler Incumbent

=======================================================

  2   Cornuaud   73.1    64.5    69.0    68.2     100.0

  8      Davis   68.7    56.8    63.8    62.4     100.0

 52 Felthauser   61.3    59.1    60.8    59.6     100.0

 59    Casbeer   74.5    64.3    69.8    67.9      63.9

114    Shinoda   59.9    62.0    62.0    61.9     100.0

127   Trautman   73.0    71.8    72.4    71.7      70.4

129     Matula   67.8    67.1    67.6    66.6     100.0

138    McDavid   60.3    59.5    60.0    58.9      63.8

Felthauser, Shinoda, and McDavid are clearly in less hostile districts than the others; I at least wouldn't call HD114 a two-to-one district. Matula and Trautman have strong organizations and along with Casbeer have backgrounds as teachers in a year where that's a plus. Sid Miller, Casbeer's opponent, significantly underperformed, as did Crabb (who was the low scorer in HD127) though not by as much. Matula and Shinoda have the ParentPAC endorsement, while Felthauser has Krusee's close ties to the toll road industry as a club to hit him with.

While conditions might be more conducive for Democratic longshot contenders this year, the GOP might have a potential sleeper candidate in Ted Kenyon, a San Antonio attorney who's challenging State Rep. David Leibowitz in the November election. HD 117 had been represented by a Republican for two years until Leibowitz won it by less than 500 votes in 2004. Leibowitz, who's also an attorney, has been considered relatively safe in his first bid for re-election. But the state House district overlaps with a congressional district where Republican U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla will be turning out votes in a special election for his seat. A big turnout for Bonilla could give Kenyon a boost.

Republicans two years ago had high hopes for a challenger who took on State Rep. Scott Hochberg in a Houston district where the GOP candidates won half the votes in statewide races in 2002. But John Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in HD 137 two years ago - and Hochberg did even better than that. This year's Republican nominee, Sylvia Spivey, is viewed as a longshot at best as a result. Other Democrats who might have distance chances are Dan Barrett of Fort Worth in a race against State Rep. Anna Mowery and Chris Youngblood of Burleson against State Rep. Bill Zedler of Arlington. A backlash against Republicans might also put Byron Sibbet of North Richland Hills within striking distance of favored Republican Kelly Hancock in a race for an open seat in HD 91.

Given how close Leibowitz's win was in 2004, it's a bit odd to see that race listed as a sleeper, but between the re-re-redistricted Congressional seats and the open HD118, this one has definitely been below radar. I can't dismiss such a purple district (only Leibowitz, JR Molina, and Bexar County Sheriff Ralph Lopez won it as a Democrat), but for what it's worth I've not heard any concern about this one. Kenyon had no cash on hand reported last quarter. Neither did Leibowitz, but he's a self-funder, so that doesn't tell you much. I'm not much worried about this one, and even less worried about Scott Hochberg. I wouldn't bet on any of these races, but I'd bet on one of the Democratic sleepers winning before I bet on Kenyon or Spivey.

More numbers for the other Dems named:

Dist  Democrat   Bush Carillo Brister Keasler Incumbent

=======================================================

 91    Sibbett   68.4    66.1    67.1    65.9     100.0

 96 Youngblood   62.7    60.6    61.2    60.0      60.3

 97    Barrett   64.2    63.8    64.5    63.1      63.2

More or less in the middle of the pack above. I don't know enough about any of them to assess their odds beyond that.

As for the Congressional races:

To be a real sleeper with any chance whatsoever at this point in time in the election season, a candidate must have made some sort of impression with the voters even if they haven't been well-armed compared to a favored opponent. The congressional districts in Texas will be harder to crack for challengers as a result of the way they've been drawn to prevent upsets from happening. Democratic challengers Shane Sklar of Edna, Mary Beth Harrell of Killeen and John Courage of San Antonio have formidable budgets despite being substantially outfunded in races against Republican U.S. Reps. Ron Paul, John Carter and Lamar Smith. They're still underdogs, but their chances for upsets appear to be better now than they were three or four weeks ago.

The same goes for Will Pryor as he takes on Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions in a Dallas district where the incumbent outdueled Martin Frost in one of the most expensive race for Congress in the nation in 2004. While the incumbent has had four times more money to spend on the campaign than Pryor, the Democratic challenger has still had sufficient resources to establish communication with voters and the benefit of being able to reassemble Frost's old organization that was in place less than two years ago. Pryor's best shot could come if Sessions takes the race for granted during the final month.

Courage's chances were made worse by the Supreme Court decision. Harrell has gotten a fair amount of decent press (though nothing nearly as sweet as this mash note) and could get some traction in that military-heavy district. Pryor has decent fundraising and is in the least red of the districts, but I've heard very little about him.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on October 10, 2006 to Election 2006 | TrackBack