Targeting 2008: CD10

BOR lists "Five Things You Can Do To Help Win TX-10". We know there's two announced candidates on the Democratic side, and we know that incumbent Michael McCaul won with a modest 55% in 2006. What else do we know about this district and the chances of winning it in 2008?

Well, ask me a question like that and I'll give you a spreadsheet. Here's how the statewide candidates did in CD10 last year:

Republican    Votes    Pct    Democrat     Votes    Pct

=======================================================

Combs       107,403   63.1        Head    62,564   36.8

Abbott      107,990   62.9      Van Os    63,605   37.1

Hutchison   107,988   62.5   Radnofsky    64,818   37.5

Dewhurst    104,155   61.7    Alvarado    64,540   38.3

Patterson    97,762   58.9     Hathcox    68,328   41.1

Staples      97,273   58.1     Gilbert    70,124   41.9

McCaul       97,712   57.8      Ankrum    71,415   42.2

Ames Jones   95,750   57.7       Henry    70,112   42.3

Keller       98,243   57.3      Molina    73,136   42.7

Willett      89,899   54.4       Moody    75,343   45.6

Remember that all percentages are for the two-party totals, and that every race except Keller/Molina had a Libertarian in it; Mike Badnarik scored about 4% in CD10. Basically, McCaul compares poorly to the other Republicans on the ballot. An incumbent with his financial resources should have done better than he did.

I believe the key to making CD10 a viable target in 2008 is Travis County. You may recall that Ted Ankrum commissioned a poll in CD10 back in July, which showed the race splitting 50/42, with Libertarian Michael Badnarik getting the remaining 8. The poll skewed towards Travis - 47% of the respondents were from Travis County, 36% from Harris, and the remainder elsewhere. I noted that this was a critical factor, because Travis was going to be the main source of Democratic support. I also noted that this was a significant departure from 2004, where Harris slightly outpolled Travis. Here's how everybody performed in the CD10 portion of Travis County last year:

Republican    Votes    Pct    Democrat     Votes    Pct

=======================================================

Combs        34,418   49.1        Head    35,667   50.9

Abbott       33,790   47.5      Van Os    37,321   52.5

Hutchison    33,359   46.3   Radnofsky    38,654   53.7

Dewhurst     32,597   46.3    Alvarado    37,798   53.7

Patterson    29,295   42.6     Hathcox    39,512   57.4

Staples      28,972   41.9     Gilbert    40,256   58.1

Ames Jones   28,539   41.9       Henry    39,638   58.1

McCaul       28,576   40.9      Ankrum    41,351   59.1

Keller       28,962   40.4      Molina    42,769   59.6

Willett      25,479   37.3       Moody    42,845   62.7




Puryear      30,765   42.5       Brees    41,550   57.5

Waldrop      28,578   39.8    Coronado    43,191   60.2

Wilson       28,564   39.6      Henson    43,647   60.4

Connor       27,069   38.1       Baird    44,070   61.9

The bottom four candidates are all judicials. Ankrum did well here, but again there's room to grow. (There's also room to drop if you're not as good a candidate as some others, which I think explains the disparity between Mina Brees and her judicial colleagues.) More importantly, Travis County took in more votes than Harris did - where Harris was about 40% of the vote in 2004 and Travis 39%, it was 41% Travis and 37% Harris in 2006. A strong turnout operation could boost performance and total vote even more, which brings you that much closer to a win.

You can't do it all in Travis, of course. The Democrat will have to move the baseline up in Harris County, where the average statewide contender got 23% - Ankrum for 27%, Moody 29%. Topping 30% - ideally, getting 32 or 33 percent - has to be the goal. Which is easier said than done, given the utter lack of Democratic infrastructure in that part of the district. But if you believe CD10 is winnable - and I for one do - then this work needs to get done. Having the necessary financial resources would help a lot. Hopefully, the DCCC and the in-state money people are paying attention. We'll see.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on May 10, 2007 to Election 2008