Let me introduce you to Harris County Precinct 697. It's a very Democratic precinct, but it doesn't get a lot of turnout, at least not compared to some of its neighboring precincts. Here's what happened in Precinct 697 last year:
Precinct RVs Votes Turnout Harless Khan Pct Sharp Pct
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697 5198 1108 21.32 323 704 68.6 710 69.0
The reason why I'm introducing you to this precinct is that I believe we have to rethink our notion of where Democratic voters are, and where our turnout efforts need to be, if we really are serious about turning Harris County blue in 2008 and beyond. We know how to fish in the friendly waters, but we've got to be willing to venture beyond them, because the data tell me there's a lot of opportunity to better Democratic performance if only we'd expand our aim a little.
Let's take a closer look at HD126, which is very much a Republican district, but not a monolith. Here are all of the precincts in HD126 where Democrats ran well:
Precinct RVs Votes Turnout Harless Khan Pct Sharp Pct
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468 3792 841 22.18 245 548 68.3 535 68.2
520 3977 715 17.98 249 405 61.9 419 64.1
613 2614 564 21.58 155 379 71.0 389 72.7
614 4133 1177 28.48 446 654 59.4 667 60.7
697 5198 1108 21.32 323 704 68.6 710 69.0
757 3712 590 15.89 187 363 66.0 382 68.2
873 729 144 19.75 34 102 75.0 108 78.3
Putting it another way, total turnout in the Democratic precincts of HD126 was 21.28%; in the Republican precincts, it was 39.00%. By my rough calculation, had the Dem precincts turned out at that level, Democrats would have netted about a thousand extra votes. When you realize that Mary Kay Green missed being elected by less than 7000 votes, that's really something.
Now, I know it's easy to be seduced by the lure of GOTV as a cure-all for electoral woes. Turning out voters, especially voters who aren't habitual voters, is hard. So let's take a look at how these precincts performed in 2002 for comparison purposes:
Precinct RVs Votes Turnout Dewhurst Sharp Pct
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468 3538 1007 28.46 345 593 63.2
520 4084 856 20.96 399 414 50.9
613 2643 750 28.38 221 503 69.5
614 4085 1349 33.02 609 689 53.1
697 4064 1181 29.06 395 728 64.8
757 2193 360 16.42 143 187 56.7
873 652 212 32.52 66 136 67.3
What I'm saying is simply this. I believe there are a lot of precincts like the ones I've documented here - blue dots in red areas. (I'm going to review the other Republican HDs as well to try to prove that.) I believe that Democrats in Harris County have not expended much, if any, effort in targeting the voters in those areas. I believe we are not maximizing our efforts to win countywide if we are not targeting those voters. I believe we need to give some thought as to how we do this - certainly, mail needs to be a part of it, but being on the ground has to be a part of it as well. Ideally, there'd be a State Rep campaign to be the focal point of the latter. Point is, almost anything we might think of is likely to be better than what we've been doing.
I'll report on more of these areas in the coming weeks. Let me know what you think.
UPDATE: Here's Precinct 697.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on June 25, 2007 to Election 2008If you ever see dead people on the voter rolls for Precinct Two, take a closer look, you might want to cross refernce some names. Glenwood Cemetary and Washington Cemetary are both in the precinct.
http://www.hctax.net/PctImages/0002.jpg
Posted by: Larissa Lindsay on June 25, 2007 1:05 PMThe problem with your theory is that a lot of Democratic precincts contain renters versus property owner and that means their are more "dead" names on the voter rolls. So one reason the percentage is lower is because many of those people simply don't live there anymore - they just haven't been purged from the voter rolls yet.
This goes on everywhere.
Posted by: Aaron on June 26, 2007 11:53 AMAaron,
There's a little more than a speck of truth in your argument. But in the case of Pct. 697, 88% of the registered voters live in homes. Whether renting or owning, that's still an indication of more stability.
Your point stands out when you look at Suspense list voters compared to active voters: 29% of the apartment dwellers are on the suspense list; 9% of the homeowners are. Just looking at the active voters, the turnout would still be a meager 25% and home addresses account for 90% of the active list voters.
I don't doubt that there's something to your argument, just not enough to warrant the difference. If I take a precinct I know more firsthand (Pct 431), I can see that the difference in TO would have been about 4-5% points if you just looked at Active voters ... but still below 25% in a precinct full of apartment dwellers.
So the argument doesn't explain even the majority of the difference we see in turnout between wealthier parts of town and poorer parts of town.
Posted by: Greg Wythe on June 26, 2007 4:59 PM