Dean headed for Mexico

Once again, good news from my perspective, horrible news from many other people's. Here's the late night update from SciGuy:

Today the models have fallen in line with a final landfall for Dean in Mexico. The official forecast has caught up, bringing Dean into Mexico about 210 miles south of the Texas border. This forecast remains conservative as a couple of models bring the storm even deeper into Mexico.

Here's the distance from the Texas border yielded by the most recent runs of the most important computer models used by the hurricane center:

HWRF 1 p.m. run: 210 miles
GFDL 1 p.m. run: 130 miles
GFS 1 p.m. run: 270 miles
NOGAPS 1 p.m. run: 350 miles
UKMET 1 p.m. run: 320 miles

For a four-day forecast this is a surprisingly good consensus among the models. I believe that by [Sunday] morning we will be able to clear the upper Texas coast from a direct hit by Dean, and possibly any of its effects as well.

South Texas should remain on alert, but if the consensus among the models holds, it's likely the United States could escape serious harm from an extremely powerful and damaging hurricane. We're not there yet, but that's the trend.

Should that come to pass I would hope Texas and the rest of the country would do what it could to help Jamaica and Mexico, as these two nations appear set to bear the brunt of the most intense hurricane to form since 2005's Wilma.

It's hard to feel positive about one's own good fortune when one realizes what it means to someone else. I feel relief for my family, friends, and neighbors, and acute dread for everyone who is now in Dean's path. All I can do now is hope that Dean weakens, but there will be plenty to do later, once we know what damage Dean has done. Let's all be ready for that.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 19, 2007 to Hurricane Katrina