Dean heads towards Mexico

Here comes Dean.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the first hurricane of the Atlantic season was a powerful Category 4 storm, and could reach the highest level -- Category 5, with maximum winds greater than 155 mph -- later today.

As of 7 a.m. CDT today, Dean was about 440 miles east of Belize City, traveling west at about 21 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

Dean killed at least eight people as it moved across the Caribbean but Jamaica avoided a direct hit when the storm wound up passing to the south Sunday night.

There were no deaths reported in Jamaica, but the storm uprooted trees, flooded streets and tore the roofs off many homes, businesses and a prison block.

The storm is expected to cut across the southern Yucatan Peninsula, cross the Bay of Campeche and make landfall again in south-central Veracruz state, possibly entering the Mexico City area by Wednesday. With the mountains in the region already sodden with heavy seasonal rains, government officials fear severe flooding and mudslides.

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In Texas, state officials cautiously shifted their response to Hurricane Dean as they watched the storm make its way toward Mexico.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, who also directs the county's homeland security and emergency management office, notified area responders to stand down from a rescue and evacuation mission and reposition themselves as support for South Texas.

"The department will continue to monitor Hurricane Dean and is prepared to assist areas that may be impacted," a news release from Emmett's office stated. In Galveston, the emergency operations center closed its doors by midafternoon.

Officials in Texas, mindful of the lack of preparation that came with Hurricane Rita in 2005, continued to push vehicles and gas into the Rio Grande Valley, just in case.

Gov. Rick Perry on Sunday deployed 600 buses to the Alamodome in San Antonio. Another 700 were heading to the Rio Grande Valley, where they would remain on standby until local officials determined whether to use them.

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In Brownsville, there were no plans for a mandatory evacuation, but those residents who wanted to leave were urged to do so if they could.

"We caution people not to underestimate this situation," Brownsville Mayor Pat Ahumada said. "This storm could turn our way very quickly."

One of the concerns they have in South Texas is how well the levees will hold.

With many of the forecast models predicting Hurricane Dean will hit Veracruz, Mexico, Rio Grande Valley leaders are turning their attention to the region's suspect levee system.

"The levees are our Achilles heel," La Joya Mayor Billy Leo told the Guardian, after speaking at a news conference Sunday to give an update on emergency preparedness in Hidalgo County.

"If Hurricane Dean hits northern Mexico, we could still be in danger because the Rio Grande will fill. We all know our levees are very weak and you might still have to evacuate because you are going to get flooded."

Hidalgo County Judge J.D. Salinas, who also spoke at the news conference, agreed.

"Our focus is now changing from Hurricane Dean to the IBWC," Salinas said, referring to the International Boundary and Water Commission. "As Hurricane Dean goes south, we will have to consider what indirect situations might occur - rain, flooding, possible dams overflowing. It may be beautiful today but we may be talking in a week about the low-lying areas, such as Sharyland, having to evacuate because we have a river overtopping."

SciGuy has more on the likely effect Dean will have on Texas.

With a final landfall now forecast for 300 miles south of the Texas border on Wednesday, Dean's effects on this state should be minimal. Even if Dean re-strengthens into a powerful Category 3 storm it may only bring tropical depression-force winds to extreme south Texas for a few hours.

Dean's presence in the Bay of Campeche may increase moisture along the coast, possibly bringing showers a little later this week. After that temperatures will warm as a strong ridge of high pressure returns us to normal August temperatures.

We'll see. All we can do at this point is hope for the best, and respond to calls for help afterwards.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 20, 2007 to Hurricane Katrina