Win now, rest later

I don't actually disagree with anything Joe Sheehan says here about the Yankees' sudden proximity to the Red Sox in the standings and how basically meaningless it is given their now almost assured spot in the playoffs as a wild card, but my evil little pinstripe-adorned heart can't help itself.

It's hard to close even a 2 ½-game gap on a good team with 12 days left in the season. Even if it was necessary to do so, it would be a difficult task. In this case, it's not; whatever benefits--home-field advantage, schedule choice, comfort--are gained by winning the division versus being the Wild Card aren't generous enough to warrant playing the last week and change as if it mattered. Look at how Terry Francona has managed his squad all month, in the knowledge that his team is going to October. He's been resting players all around the roster, diddling with his rotation, and trying experiments like "let's see how many batters Eric Gagne can walk in one inning."

It would behoove Joe Torre to start doing this as well. The Yankees are up five games in the loss column on the Tigers, with a magic number of seven for the wild card. If form holds through the weekend and the Yankees' magic number reaches three or so, Torre needs to worry less about seeding and more about making sure his aging team is ready to go on October 2. Alex Rodriguez has missed two games all year, and none since August 8. Robinson Cano hasn't missed a game since May 6. Jorge Posada has played his usual 130-odd games behind the plate; a couple of extra days off next week couldn't hurt. I can't quantify the effects of rest on a player's performance, but I can say that the cost of doing so--possibly ending up as the wild card versus winning the division--is essentially zero.

The difference between winning the division and advancing as the Wild Card doesn't mean a thing. It's all just playoff seeding, and if you're looking for some evidence--I mean, other than the 1996 NL West race or the 2001 NL Central race--let's go all the way back to...last October. The Tigers closed the season 19-31, blowing a huge lead over the Twins, and were swept...in the last series of the year--at home--by the Royals to lose the division title on the last day.

Not two weeks later, they were the AL pennant winners, and no one cared how they got there. There was no hangover, no leftover impact on the team for having blown a division title in such a ridiculous fashion, no repercussions. They simply started a new season that Tuesday, one in which their pitching staff was utterly dominant for a week. The Twins? They played exactly three more games, the bare minimum allowed by the rules. Which set of fans came away happier last year?

Yes, yes, yes, I know. Given how mortifying things looked in late May, the mere fact that I can confidently talk about the Yankees' all-but-assured playoff berth should be more than enough to exult in. But still. No matter what happens in October, being able to bask however ephemerally in the fear and loathing that would emanate from Red Sox Nation at having blown another 14 1/2 game lead to their hated rivals is pretty irresistible. I fully understand the strategic rationale for easing up and coasting, but that doesn't keep me from thinking "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!"

(Does this count as weauxfing? I sure hope not.)

Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 21, 2007 to Baseball