Looks like my prediction that Mayor White will break 90% of the vote today has drawn some interesting responses. Matt Stiles thinks it's too high, noting that Bob Lanier only got 82% going into his third term, and provides a useful spreadsheet of mayoral electoral data to peruse. Greg also thinks I'm aiming too high. Los Dos Professors are with me, though they warn to look at the undervotes in that race.

For what it's worth, my prediction was mostly based on the fact that White's opposition is truly fringy, as it was in 2005. Looking at Stiles' spreadsheet actually made me feel better about that, because it made me recall that Lanier's '95 opponents were, unlike Amanda Ulman and Outlaw Josey Wales, people who could reasonably have claimed to have had bases of support. Small ones, obviously, but not nonexistent ones. See my comment to Stiles' post for more on that. It's all still a guess I've pulled out of my ear, of course, and I think the Profs' note about the undervote is worth remembering, but at least there's some foundation for it. In fairness to the Outlaw, I should note that he did do pretty well against Lee Brown in 1999, though that may be more of a statement about Brown than anything else. Of course, if that's the case, then there shouldn't be much of an undervote in the Mayor's race - if you're bothering to vote at all, you'll vote for him or against him, but you won't take a pass. Who knows? This is why guessing is both fun and a complete fool's errand. We'll know soon enough.

I'll be at the Melissa Noriega party tonight, for those who will be out and about. I'll post some results after I get home.