Interesting overview of Mayor White's upcoming final term in office.

Fresh off his re-election this month, Mayor Bill White heads into his final term with the most ideologically aligned City Council since taking office in 2004.

When newly elected members join the 15-person council in January, the number of Republicans will have dwindled from eight to five during his four-year tenure, a shift that could make it easier for White to pursue his agenda while eyeing a potential run for higher office.

The partisan shift could reduce instances of members challenging the mayor's direction on taxes, spending or other contentious issues, but it's his own consensus-building style that has defused acrimony at City Hall, political observers say.

"What we're really seeing here is that the mayor's changed the game," said Allen Blakemore, a prominent local Republican political consultant. "The mayor has continued to refine and develop the power of a strong-mayor form of government, and has used it in a very wise and savvy way."

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[S]tarting next year, White should preside over a changed council.

For example, the panel for the first time in recent memory will not have a Republican member elected citywide to an at-large seat.

The ideological change on the council is not unexpected, thanks to demographic shifts and the growing political participation of Democratic-leaning Hispanics.

"That is one of the reasons why the council has made a subtle change now, and that might increase in the future," said local political scientist Sanders Anderson Jr.

During his final two-year term, White may not face predictably vocal critics -- unlike in years past, when former Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs and the term-limited Councilwoman Addie Wiseman lobbed attacks about tax rates, red-light cameras, mandatory freeway towing and other items.

They only prompted postponed or lost votes for White's administration in a few instances but sparked plenty of debates during their tenures.

Councilman Michael Berry, a conservative member, is also leaving. He has been a critic, and he sometimes votes against White, but the mayor appointed him to oversee the council's administrative office.

Some of the remaining Republicans could be seen as moderates who have worked with the mayor's administration to accomplish their goals.

For example, White appointed Councilwoman Toni Lawrence to a committee that allows her to pursue ordinances that protect neighborhoods. White also tapped Councilwoman Pam Holm to handle quality-of-life issues, and she has advised him on dealing with non-permitted billboards. Even Berry has led the defense of Safe Clear, White's towing program.

Those more moderate, or at least less vocal, members could be less likely to take partisan shots at the mayor if he positions himself to seek the Democratic nomination for governor in 2010, or some other higher office, observers say.

"The mayor is fortunate in that some of the more aggressive Republicans ... are no longer on council, and that there's now a clear Democratic majority," said Richard Murray, a University of Houston political scientist.

"Very likely his next race will be a partisan race, and, therefore, if you had particularly outspoken Republicans on council, they would not pass any opportunity to dent his image."

- Politics really is a game of inches. Change about a thousand votes in the 2003 runoff (PDF), and instead of the moderate consensus-oriented MJ Khan in F and Pam Holm in G, we'd have the more conservative and ideological Terry McConn and Jeff Daily, both of whom might have been more vocal opponents of the Mayor's. Bill White may have the political skill to have co-opted them, but it's got to have been easier on him not needing to find out. Similarly, though the 2005 runoff in District C wasn't close, George Hittner was running to Anne Clutterbuck's right. Who knows where we'd be today with that alternate universe version of Council?

- I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that there will be no one on Council to provide a little friction for the Mayor's agenda. I think District E will continue to provide that, even without Council Member Wiseman. Annette Dwyer said in the interview I did with her that she intended to be more of a team player, but I doubt she'll generate much ill will by placing holds and voting No a few times. I did not get to speak to Michael Sullivan, so I can't attest to his style, but I'd be surprised if he's any farther away from Wiseman's position than Dwyer is.

- Even if I'm wrong about that, and the District E winner is Addie's antithesis, I guarantee that someone will fill the role of Mayor White Attack Dog. Everybody knows that Bill White's next race will be statewide, and the current narrative about him - highly popular, problem-solver, bipartisan appeal - is one that they need to knock down, and the sooner the better. I have no idea who they have that's well-suited for this role, but someone - probably several someones - will play it.

- Shifting gears slightly, I don't think the dismal results for the local GOP in this year's election portend their doom at a citywide level. I think it's clear that candidates of the Roy Morales/Tom Nixon mold won't win - it's too bad in a way that Jack Christie had the residency issue, since we can't really evaluate him as a candidate because of them - but I think a Clutterbuck/Lawrence/Holm/Khan type could do well.

- Things could also get worse for the Republicans. They hold five of the nine district Council seats, but there's nothing preordained about that. While I'd normally expect a Republican to hold Districts A, E, and G, a Democrat could certainly win in C and F. Mark Lee and Herman Litt both came close to making the runoff in C last time. And of course, who knows what the 2011 Council redistricting will bring. At least that won't be Mayor White's concern.