CD10 candidate Larry Joe Doherty has released a poll memo (PDF) with some good and interesting news.
This district may have been gerrymandered to be a safe Republican seat, but it certainly does not look like one any longer. In the initial trial heat, [incumbent Rep. Mike] McCaul gets 43% of the vote to Doherty's 34% a scant nine percentage point lead that shows McCaul starting out well short of the 50% mark - and as the incumbent, he should be starting this race at or above the winning percentage. In addition, in a generic trial heat that just asks voter preference on voting for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, the generic Democrat gets 41% of the vote, and the Republican garners 45%, only a 4-point difference.
McCaul has failed to capitalize on the biggest advantages of incumbency: despite serving two terms in Congress, nearly half of all likely voters do not even recognize his name (47% don't recognize), the most basic measure of a politician's strength. His job rating is utterly anemic at 28% positive, 29% negative, and 42% unsure - and this is when McCaul is identified as their current Congressman.
Voters are moving to the center and more receptive to Democratic solutions to the nation's problems at the same time that McCaul has aligned himself solidly with a failed President. Bush's job rating is 70% negative here (in Texas) and 69% of C.D. 10 voters think the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Furthermore, the data shows that many of the tired, traditional attacks on a Democratic candidate will work no better in this district than they did in Mississippi or Louisiana. In addition, the economy and high food and gas prices, tough issues for incumbents, are increasingly the top concerns for voters.
BOR has more. Larry Joe is also a Blue America candidate, and you can learn more about him at his Firedoglake chat or my interview with him from the primary.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on June 17, 2008 to Election 2008