Favorable poll for Juan Garcia

Back in June, there was a much-debated poll showing Democratic State Rep. Juan Garcia trailing challenger Todd Hunter in HD32, which runs from Corpus Christi up along the Gulf Coast. Now BOR brings word of another poll with a very different result:

48.4% say they will definitely vote Garcia with another 1.9% leaning that way. Hunter has a combined support of 39.7%.

The poll was by Jeff Smith's Opinion Analysts, but no further data is available in that post. QR fills in a few gaps:

The sampling of 400 likely voters by Democratic pollster Opinion Analysts, Inc confirms that 60.2% of HD32 voters have a favorable or very favorable view of Governor Perry. John McCain leads but has surprisingly weak numbers with only 52.7% support against Obama's 30.7%.

Nevertheless, against that backdrop, 48.4% say they will definitely vote Garcia with another 1.9% leaning that way. Hunter has a combined support of 39.7%

[...]

The most interesting issue test question reported was a surprising 67% upset with the insurance industry and supporting an elected rather than appointed Texas Insurance Commissioner. With the Texas Department of Insurance under sunset review, that issue may have resonance in other races across the state.

The other surprise in the poll was the weakness in self-identified Republican numbers. In what is supposed to be a 60+% Republican district, only 32.7% identified as either a "strong Republican" or "not so strong Republican" vs. 35.2% "strong" or "not so strong Democrats". Nearly 24% called themselves independent, independent leaning Democrat or independent leaning Republican.

The poll reflected 71.1% Anglo, and 23.7% Hispanic numbers.

The bit about the insurance industry is important because Hunter has been a lobbyist for them, which suggests a pretty clear path for Garcia to take in attacking him. Beyond that, I'm a little skeptical of the Dem/GOP numbers, though the results of that recent Texas Politics Project poll, for which Burka adds his analysis, suggest they may be valid, and I'm a little skeptical that even including leaners nearly 90% of the voters have a preference this far out; it would be nice to see the result of the initial ask, pre-pushing. As this is a top target for the GOP, and as both sides will have a lot of money, I figure we'll see more polling as we go. But at least now, there's another data point to accompany that first poll.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on August 18, 2008 to Election 2008