Fearing the worst for Galveston

I've been trying to stay at least somewhat optimistic about what Ike will do to Texas. That isn't easy, and it's getting harder. Here's SciGuy's latest:

Ike's expected to produce a massive, destructive surge far up the Texas coast and into low-lying areas of Louisiana.

A more northward turn, which might spare Houston the worst winds and Galveston Island a catastrophic storm surge, has not yet happened. And with landfall due to occur in less than 18 hours, time is running out.

In fact, if the track comes even 10 miles to the southwest of the forecast location, across the far West End of Galveston, the across the island will be considerably worse than depicted on the maps above.

The National Hurricane Center, which is not prone to hyperbole, had this to say (pardon the ALL CAPS nature of it, that's just how they do it):

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 25 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL
EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH
EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

If that's not scary enough for you, take a look at these pictures the state put out to depict what might happen to Galveston. The official landfall may still be hours away, but Galveston is already starting to flood, and the bayous farther inland are elevated. I hope everyone is prepared for a large number of people to be displaced for a long time, as was the case after Katrina. Galveston may never be the same again.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on September 12, 2008 to Hurricane Katrina