Precinct analysis: The Richmond Rail Effect 2008

Back in 2006, I did a series of posts that examined CD07 election results in the precincts surrounding Richmond Avenue and the route that was proposed at the time for that stretch of the Universities line to try and answer a question originally raised by Rich Connelly about whether support for rail on Richmond would be a loser in that area. My conclusion was not only did Jim Henley not lose votes to John Culberson in these precincts, he likely gained votes, and thus his support for rail on Richmond was an asset, not a liability. Even though rail was essentially a non-issue this year, I figured as long as I was knee-deep in precinct data, I might as well take a look back to see how Michael Skelly stacked up. Here's the data for the last three elections:

2004


Pcnct Ballots  Culb      Pct  Mrtnez      Pct   C/M Pct M/C Pct

===============================================================

39       1809   473   26.15%    1187   65.62%    28.49%  71.51%

60       1625   422   25.97%    1027   63.20%    29.12%  70.88%

123       866   236   27.25%     544   62.82%    30.26%  69.74%

139      1688   773   45.79%     767   45.44%    50.19%  49.81%

177      1024   635   62.01%     310   30.27%    67.20%  32.80%

178      1346   905   67.24%     328   24.37%    73.40%  26.60%

233      1597   837   52.41%     610   38.20%    57.84%  42.16%

569      1791  1065   59.46%     685   38.25%    60.86%  39.14%

802       237    46   19.41%     162   68.35%    22.12%  77.88%

Total   11983  5392   45.00%    5620   46.90%    48.96%  51.04%



2006

Pcnct Ballots  Culb      Pct  Henley      Pct   C/H Pct H/C Pct

===============================================================

39       1273   246   19.32%     958   75.26%    20.43%  79.57%

60       1050   202   19.24%     790   75.24%    20.36%  79.64%

123       513   117   22.81%     364   70.96%    24.32%  75.68%

139      1061   423   39.87%     564   53.16%    42.86%  57.14%

177       658   403   61.25%     237   36.02%    62.97%  37.03%

178       968   697   72.00%     231   23.86%    75.11%  24.89%

233      1583   791   49.97%     696   43.97%    53.19%  46.81%

569      1076   556   51.67%     454   42.19%    55.05%  44.95%

802       205    42   20.49%     149   72.68%    21.99%  78.01%

Total    8387  3477   41.46%    4443   52.97%    43.90%  56.10%



2008

Pcnct Ballots  Culb      Pct  Skelly      Pct   C/S Pct S/C Pct

===============================================================

39       1800   316   17.56%    1310    72.78%   19.43%  80.57%

60       1524   372   24.41%    1048    68.77%   26.20%  73.80%

123       913   222   24.32%     625    68.46%   26.21%  73.79%

139      1689   677   40.08%     921    54.53%   42.37%  57.63%

177      1076   587   54.55%     437    40.61%   57.32%  42.68%

178      1395   911   65.30%     452    32.40%   66.84%  33.16%

233      2844  1309   46.03%    1370    48.17%   48.86%  51.14%

569      2175  1075   49.43%     995    45.75%   51.93%  48.07%

802       208    47   22.60%     142    68.27%   24.87%  75.13%

Total   13624  5516   40.49%    7300    53.58%   43.04%  56.96%

As before, "Pct" refers to the percent of the total ballot, which includes undervotes and votes for the Libertarian candidate. "C/x Pct" and "x/C Pct" are the straight-up Culberson versus Martinez/Henley/Skelly percentages. Precincts 39, 60, 123, and 802 are in Montrose, 178 is Afton Oaks, the epicenter of anti-rail activity back in the day, 177 and 569 are Lynn Park, Highland Village, and St. George's Place, all of which border Afton Oaks, and 139 and 233 are Greenway Plaza.

Overall, there's nothing too exciting here. Skelly lost a few points in 60, 123, and 802, but he had a pretty high standard to meet. He gained a little or more everywhere else, and flipped 233 to blue. He topped Henley by a small margin, with his biggest gains coming in Culberson's strongest turf. Given Skelly's gains in the district as a whole, that's about what you'd expect.

So there you have it. I didn't really have a point to make with this post, I just felt it needed to be included, at least before someone asked me about it. I figure that as there are still hurdles to be cleared for the Universities line, and construction is still at least a year away, this may become an issue again in 2010. Just keep these numbers in mind when Culberson or one of his proxies claims that he has the support of the voters in the area.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 20, 2008 to Election 2008