Precinct analysis: The microcosm

If studying all the precinct data for Harris County seems too daunting, you can get a pretty good representation of the county in a smaller scale by studying HD133, where Rep.-elect Kristi Thibaut unseated freshman Rep. Jim Murphy in a rematch of 2006. With one lone exception, the result in HD133 mirrored the countywide result for every single Democrat that was on the ballot; the exceptional case was for the 333rd Civil Court, where Democrat Goodwille Pierre nipped Judge Tad Halbach in the district. No other district I've looked at comes anywhere near to this similarity.

There's another aspect in which HD133 offers a good lesson on Harris County as a whole, and that's in the matter of turnout, especially when compared to 2006. To illustrate, let's look at how Thibaut did in each year. There's not that many precincts in HD133, so we can look at them individually. Unlike some other districts, HD133 is basically split between CDs 07 and 09, with Westheimer being a dividing line through the district separating the 7th to the north and the 9th to the south. Here's a look at the precincts in each CD from 2006:

CD07 - 2006


Pcnct  Votes  Turnout  Murphy Thibaut  T Pct  T Margin

======================================================

130     1295    54.09     918     320  25.85      -598

356     1249    39.51     786     386  32.94      -400

395      901    49.32     608     246  28.81      -362

437     1100    50.39     766     255  24.98      -511

438     1023    54.71     737     246  25.03      -491

483     1576    34.58     884     598  40.35      -286

492     1029    36.55     652     328  33.47      -324

493      862    45.46     581     242  29.40      -339

499     1267    54.15     896     321  26.38      -575

504     1176    51.47     777     348  30.93      -429

625      856    44.75     501     303  37.69      -198

626     1102    36.83     598     428  41.72      -170

706      182    33.09     103      65  38.69       -38

727      513    19.96     193     280  59.20        87

Total 14,131    41.93    9000    4366  32.66     -4634



CD09 - 2006

Pcnct  Votes  Turnout  Murphy Thibaut  T Pct  T Margin

======================================================

96       209    16.76      40     153  79.27       113

338     1067    23.96     355     636  64.18       281

429      823    20.64     230     536  69.97       306

487      653    19.87     216     393  64.53       177

503      349    24.15     105     215  67.19       110

508      846    26.81     261     518  66.50       257

559      707    20.75     238     410  63.27       172

565      517    14.14     101     391  79.47       290

620     1500    28.45     741     660  47.11       -81

765      950    26.55     399     467  53.93        68

Total   7621    22.76    2686    4379  61.98      1693

You wouldn't realize it if you just looked at the number of votes cast, but there were actually a few more registered voters in the CD09 half of the district as there were in the CD07 half - 33,490 in CD09 and 33,353 in CD07. But in 2006, the voters in the precincts that largely favored Thibaut stayed home in droves, and she lost by what looked like a large margin, 57.2% to 42.8% using two party numbers. That was close to the average countywide performance, which was 58.0% for the GOP and 42.0% in HD133 for the Dems. It was clear that this wasn't really representative of the district (or the county), and that Thibaut would get a boost from the fact that 2008 was a Presidential year. I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation by applying 2004 turnout numbers to each precinct, and assigning it the same percentage of the vote for each candidate, and estimated Thibaut would net between 46 and 47 percent of the vote under those conditions. Given that everyone expected more robust Democratic turnout this year compared to 2004, it was fair to assume the race would be close to even, before anyone did any campaigning.

Well, it was that and then some. Compare to 2008:

CD07 - 2008


Pcnct  Votes  Turnout  Murphy Thibaut  T Pct  T Margin

======================================================

130     1858    78.90    1383     410  22.87      -973

356     2136    71.65    1245     811  39.45      -434

395     1333    74.43     910     376  29.24      -534

437     1527    73.41    1097     371  25.27      -726

438     1379    77.70    1058     276  20.69      -782

483     2784    64.59    1381    1283  48.16       -98

492     1750    67.15     988     705  41.64      -283

493     1321    72.90     876     388  30.70      -488

499     1810    79.74    1346     410  23.35      -936

504     1688    75.42    1172     473  28.75      -699

625     1330    72.48     798     474  37.26      -324

626     1905    67.43     968     867  47.25      -101

706      342    63.10     174     155  47.11       -29

727     1430    62.83     409     964  70.21       555

Total 22,593    71.24  13,805    7963  36.58     -5842



CD09 - 2008

Pcnct  Votes  Turnout  Murphy Thibaut  T Pct  T Margin

======================================================

96       698    62.04      72     600  89.29       528

338     2463    54.86     735    1540  67.69       805

429     2164    55.20     469    1574  77.04      1105

487     1576    50.08     484     997  67.32       513

503      729    51.52     234     450  65.79       216

508     1740    56.92     594    1045  63.76       451

559     2092    64.63     491    1492  75.24      1001

565     1569    46.52     233    1274  84.54      1041

620     3913    67.71    1738    1965  53.07       227

765     2216    60.56     827    1246  60.11       419

Total 19,610    59.06    5877  12,183  67.46      6306

Now this begins to look like a district with an even partisan distribution of voters. In fact, CD09 increased its advantage in registrations to 33,402 to 31,712, but thanks to its near-tripling of turnout over 2006, it actually looks like it's of equivalent size. The CD07 precincts jumped by 75%, but that wasn't enough to hold the seat for Murphy. The rising Democratic tide swamped his boat. And that was reflected across the county.

All this is easy to see, and to my mind provides a quick and dirty refutation of Dave Mann's thesis that the Democratic Party in Harris County somehow failed to turn its voters out, but a closer look reveals something else. Thibaut increased her margin in each precinct in CD09, which included flipping Precinct 620 from red to blue. She also cut into Murphy's margin in four of the CD07 precincts - 483, 492, 626, and 706 - while building on the lead in 727. I don't want to reduce this to one precinct, but the gain Thibaut made in 727, which remember is in CD07, is greater than her margin of victory. Obviously, she needed the huge boost she got in the CD09 precincts, which is what everyone expected to happen. The point I'm making, the recurring theme throughout this election, is that she didn't make it on gains in Democratic districts alone. She needed the help she got in the CD07 precincts where she gained as well. At the county level, or in this microcosm of the county, that's the story of this election.

Posted by Charles Kuffner on November 25, 2008 to Election 2008