Swing State Project has compiled a list of Presidential results by Congressional district, for all 435 DCs around the country. I've pulled out the Texas numbers and put them in a Google spreadsheet for ease of viewing. Here are a few notable ones:
CD Incumbent Obama Kerry Gore
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03 Johnson 42 33 30
07 Culberson 41 36 31
10 McCaul 44 38 34
21 Smith 41 34 31
22 Olson 41 36 33
24 Marchant 44 35 32
26 Burgess 42 35 38
31 Carter 42 33 32
32 Sessions 46 40 36
(By the way, my assumption is that the 2000 results are derived from taking the data from the existing precincts for that year, regardless of which actual CD they were in at that time. That must be the case, because CDs 31 and 32 didn't exist in 2000.)
You can also now see similar figures from the Cook Political Report, which just released its updated PVIs to reflect the 2008 Presidential cycle. What does this mean?
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI) ExplainedIn August of 1997, The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness of each of the 435 congressional districts. Using the 1992 and 1996 major-party Presidential voting results, the PVI measured how each congressional district performed compared to the nation as a whole.
Using the results of the 2004 and 2008 elections, we have updated these PVI ratings and have even more information to draw upon to understand the congressional level trends and tilts that will help to define upcoming elections.
Developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata, the index is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years.
While other data such as the results of senatorial, gubernatorial, congressional and other local races can help fine tune the exact partisan tilt of a particular district, those kinds of results don't allow a comparison of districts across state lines. Only Presidential results allow for total comparability.
A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.
To determine the national average for these latest ratings, we have taken the average Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote for 2004 and 2008, which is roughly 51.3 percent, and that of Republicans, which is roughly 48.7 percent. So, if John Kerry captured 55 percent of the vote in a district and Barack Obama carried 57 percent in the district four years later, the district would have a PVI score of roughly D+5.
Couple things here. You know how I feel about districts like 07, 10, and 32 already. I've touched on CD24 a bit as well, and I want to come back to it again here. This is a district that deserves a serious challenger. If the DCCC plans to be even a little aggressive on the offense this next cycle, instead of simply playing defense everywhere - and with the ad buys we've seen so far in 10 and 32, I think we can say they will be - CD24 should be on their roster of places to try to help the locals find a candidate. The trend is clear.DISTRICT PVI Rank 2008 Results 2004 Results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TX 1 GOHMERT, LOUIE (R) R+21 17 McCain (38) 69 30 BUSH (39) 69 31 TX 2 POE, TED (R) R+13 76 McCain (20) 60 40 BUSH (27) 63 37 TX 3 JOHNSON, SAM (R) R+14 69 McCain (16) 57 42 BUSH (34) 67 33 TX 4 HALL, RALPH M. (R) R+21 14 McCain (39) 69 30 BUSH (41) 70 30 TX 5 HENSARLING, JEB (R) R+17 35 McCain (27) 63 36 BUSH (35) 67 33 TX 6 BARTON, JOE (R) R+15 56 McCain (20) 60 40 BUSH (33) 67 34 TX 7 CULBERSON, JOHN (R) R+13 82 McCain (17) 58 41 BUSH (29) 64 36 TX 8 BRADY, KEVIN (R) R+25 8 McCain (48) 74 25 BUSH (45) 73 28 TX 9 Green, Al (D) D+22 393 Obama (55) 23 77 Kerry (40) 30 70 TX 10 MCCAUL, MICHAEL T. (R) R+10 107 McCain (11) 55 44 BUSH (24) 62 38 TX 11 CONAWAY, K. MICHAEL (R) R+28 3 McCain (52) 75 24 BUSH (57) 78 22 TX 12 GRANGER, KAY (R) R+16 37 McCain (27) 63 36 BUSH (34) 67 33 TX 13 THORNBERRY, MAC (R) R+29 2 McCain (54) 76 23 BUSH (56) 78 22 TX 14 PAUL, RON (R) R+18 24 McCain (33) 66 33 BUSH (34) 67 33 TX 15 Hinojosa, Ruben (D) D+ 3 265 Obama (20) 40 60 BUSH (3) 51 49 TX 16 Reyes, Silvestre (D) D+10 327 Obama (32) 33 66 Kerry (13) 44 57 TX 17 Edwards, Chet (D) R+20 19 McCain (35) 67 32 BUSH (40) 70 30 TX 18 Jackson-Lee, Sheila (D) D+24 400 Obama (55) 22 77 Kerry (44) 28 72 TX 19 NEUGEBAUER, RANDY (R) R+26 5 McCain (45) 72 27 BUSH (55) 78 23 TX 20 Gonzalez, Charles A. (D) D+ 8 316 Obama (28) 36 63 Kerry (10) 45 55 TX 21 SMITH, LAMAR (R) R+14 66 McCain (18) 58 40 BUSH (32) 66 34 TX 22 OLSON, PETE (R) R+13 84 McCain (17) 58 41 BUSH (29) 64 36 TX 23 Rodriguez, Ciro D. (D) R+ 4 195 Obama (3) 48 51 BUSH (15) 57 43 TX 24 MARCHANT, KENNY (R) R+11 93 McCain (11) 55 44 BUSH (30) 65 35 TX 25 Doggett, Lloyd (D) D+ 6 293 Obama (20) 39 59 Kerry (7) 46 54 TX 26 BURGESS, MICHAEL C. (R) R+13 83 McCain (17) 58 41 BUSH (29) 65 35 TX 27 Ortiz, Solomon P. (D) R+ 2 222 Obama (7) 46 53 BUSH (10) 55 45 TX 28 Cuellar, Henry (D) EVEN 240 Obama (12) 44 56 BUSH (8) 54 46 TX 29 Green, Gene (D) D+ 8 307 Obama (24) 38 62 Kerry (11) 44 56 TX 30 Johnson, Eddie Bernice (D) D+27 409 Obama (64) 18 82 Kerry (50) 25 75 TX 31 CARTER, JOHN R. (R) R+14 70 McCain (16) 57 41 BUSH (33) 67 34 TX 32 SESSIONS, PETE (R) R+ 8 134 McCain (7) 53 46 BUSH (19) 60 40
One other thing that stands out to me in these numbers is that some interesting choices will need to be made come redistricting time. There's a lot of not-very-solid Republican districts in the D/FW area, and there's going to be a new district added in for 2012. I can't see how that isn't a Democratic seat - there just aren't enough Republican votes to go around and keep all the incumbents safe. Remember the lesson of the State House - overreaching will bite you in the butt.
Finally, remember how in 2002 and 2004 a whole lot of Democratic candidates for office ran on how much they agreed with President Bush? It's quite clear that President Obama will get very few crossover votes from the current Republican delegation; at this point, for better or worse, the idea of "unified opposition" to the Obama agenda is firmly embedded as the GOP strategy. It's not out of the question that some of the No votes they'll be making will put a few of them in an uncomfortable position in 2010, such as thei early vote they made against supporting S-CHIP; again, of course, this depends on them having a viable, funded candidate opposing them to point those votes out. This will be well worth keeping an eye on going forward.
I've said before and I'll say again that I think this is going to be a quiet year at the Congressional level in Texas. No re-redistricting, no special elections, no Tom DeLay drama, and no real clue how things will play out in the 2011 Lege is a recipe for humdrumness. There's always the possibility of surprise, and you know what districts I'd like to see some action in, but the early line is for a snoozefest. We'll see how it plays out.
Posted by Charles Kuffner on April 13, 2009 to Election 2008