Category Archives: The making of the President

Morning Consult: Biden 48, Trump 47

The overview is here and there are some words that I’ll include shortly, but for the headline we’ll need this picture: I know it says “Tied” despite the “Biden 48, Trump 47” listing. My guess is that the exact numbers … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Biden 47, Trump 47

Very interesting. In the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden is in a tied race with President Donald Trump in the reliably red state of Texas, and he holds a single digit lead … Continue reading

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DFP: Biden 47, Trump 46

From Twitter: . Police cars revolving lightNew Poll – TX Police cars revolving light Biden 47 – Trump 46 Cornyn 44 – Hegar 41 https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/tx.pdf — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 8:21 PM – 18 October 2020 What’s interesting about this … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: For Biden

Duh. Character, without question, is the starkest divide between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. For all his faults — and there are a few — the latter possesses a rare ability in these polarized times to … Continue reading

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UT/Trib: Trump 50, Biden 45

I’ll get into a broader discussion in a minute, but for now, there’s this: President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden with the support of 50% of the state’s likely voters to Biden’s 45% in the 2020 race … Continue reading

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There’s so much more money in Texas races

Item one: It’s the question that many, many people have raised — often as a joke — for years. But the combination of changing demographics, chaos among the state Republican ranks, and the ongoing struggles of President Donald Trump’s campaign … Continue reading

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PPP/TDP: Trump 48, Biden 48

More polls. A new poll of likely voters found that President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are tied in Texas. The poll, commissioned by the Texas Democratic Party through Public Policy Polling, is the latest reflecting a dead … Continue reading

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NYT/Siena: Trump 46, Biden 43

The second of two polls from yesterday, both of which are interesting in their own way. The NYT story about the poll, which included results from Iowa (Biden leading by3) and Georgia (tied), is behind their firewall, so I’ll give … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Trump 50, Biden 45

Here we have a new Quinnipiac poll, one of two that came out yesterday, and it’s a bit of a puzzle. In Texas and Ohio, two states where President Trump won easily in 2016, the president holds a slight lead … Continue reading

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Two more polls of Texas

Trump is up two in this one. Florida and Texas remain tight battlegrounds in the presidential election, according to CBS News Battleground Tracker polls released Sunday. The current margin in both states is 2 percentage points, with Democratic nominee Joe … Continue reading

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Adding to the team in Texas

Shot: Joe Biden is a lot closer to winning Texas at this point than Donald Trump is to winning Minnesota, if the polls are anywhere close to right. — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) 2:15 PM – 14 September 2020 Chaser. Joe … Continue reading

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PPP/Giffords: Trump 48, Biden 47

From Evan Smith: New @ppppolls poll in Texas: @realDonaldTrump 48 @joebiden 47 @JohnCornyn 44 @mjhegar 40 https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf #txlege #txsen #tx2020 — EvanSmith (@evanasmith) 3:18 PM – 08 September 2020 I could not find a news story, press release, or even … Continue reading

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Trump 48, Biden 46

Here’s our first post-convention poll from an outfit that has polled the state at least twice so far this year. Texas remains a toss-up in the presidential race. But Democrat Joe Biden’s modest – and somewhat startling – lead over … Continue reading

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Morning Consult: Trump 48, Biden 47

We’re already starting to get a ton of new polls now that the conventions are over, and with that I expect some more Texas-specific polls. In the meantime, there’s this. Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest … Continue reading

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A very simple projection of the November vote

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 47

Time for another poll. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden emerged from his national convention with a 1 percentage point lead in Texas over Republican President Donald Trump, a poll scheduled for wide release on Tuesday shows. The results from the … Continue reading

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The Kamala effect

I assume you are all aware that California Sen. Kamala Harris is now the Democratic nominee for Vice President. I didn’t post about that on Wednesday because it was hardly news by the time I published, but there are things … Continue reading

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 46

Looks like maybe we’ll get a regular dose of these. Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe … Continue reading

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Biden’s team in Texas

Get to it, y’all. Joe Biden’s campaign is naming its first hires for the general election in Texas, where polls continue to show a close contest between the presumptive Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump. Biden’s state director will be … Continue reading

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 45

The hits keep coming. Another day, another poll showing that Texas is up for grabs despite President Donald Trump’s bluster. Former vice president Joe Biden leads 47-45, with only one in 20 voters still undecided, in a Morning Consult poll … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading

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More pressure on Biden to really compete in Texas

Fine by me. With President Donald Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joe Biden is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and … Continue reading

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CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Biden 45

Maybe a tad bit of a letdown after yesterday’s result, but still quite solid. The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, … Continue reading

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 43

Holy mackeral. Former Vice President Joe Biden has built a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, as unease over Trump’s handling of coronavirus mounts, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll has found. If the general … Continue reading

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A more extensive look at the state polls

As you know, I’ve been computing a poll average for the Presidential race in Texas based on post-primary numbers, meaning that I start with the April 25 UT/Trib result and go from there. As of the June 25 Fox poll, … Continue reading

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The fifty percent challenge

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 46

And here’s poll number two, which is technically about the Texas Senate race but I’m counting it as a Presidential poll for consistency. Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds that John Cornyn has basically no profile in Texas. Only … Continue reading

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UT/Trib: Trump 48, Biden 44

We had two Presidential polls drop on Thursday. Here’s the first, I’ll do the second for tomorrow. President Donald Trump would beat former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas by 4 percentage points if the election were held today, according … Continue reading

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What should Joe Biden do in Texas?

“Win” would be my preferred answer, but it’s more complicated than that. No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling. Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is … Continue reading

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Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading

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PPP/PT: Trump 48, Biden 46

Time for another poll. Today, Progress Texas released statewide Texas voter poll results, showing Democrats are within striking distance in both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races in Texas. What does this mean? Texas voters are fed up with Texas … Continue reading

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The Economist’s 2020 Presidential election model

Here it is, the first official model of the year. Four months ago, Donald Trump’s odds of winning a second term had never looked better. After an easy acquittal in his impeachment trial, his approval rating had reached its highest … Continue reading

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PPP: Trump 48, Biden 48

You want polls, we got polls. In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Trump 44, Biden 43

Nice. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a very tight race in Texas, with Trump receiving 44 percent of the vote and Biden receiving 43 percent in a general election matchup, according to a … Continue reading

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