Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

March 20th, 2017:

Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape.

Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the top of the ticket have recently done well.

Specifically, they are the districts where Republicans won federal or state legislative races in 2016 while the same voters electing them were choosing Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.

Trump won Texas, but not by as much as Republicans normally do.

The non-prediction here is that every single one of these officeholders might win re-election next time they’re on the ballot.

On the other hand, a political fishing guide, in this instance, would tell you that these are districts Democrats should examine if they’re trying to win seats in the congressional delegation or in the Texas Senate or House.

We covered some of this before, when the Senate district data came out. In that spirit, I’ve put together a list of all reasonably competitive State House districts, which follows below. Many of these will be familiar to you, but there are a few new ones in there. First, all districts by Presidential numbers:


Dist  Clinton   Trump  Clint%  Trump%   Obama  Romney  Obama%  Romney%
======================================================================
134    50,043  35,983   54.7%   39.3%  34,731  46,926   41.7%    56.4%
102    30,291  24,768   52.3%   42.7%  24,958  29,198   45.3%    53.0%
114    35,259  29,221   52.1%   43.2%  28,182  35,795   43.5%    55.2%
105    25,087  20,979   52.1%   43.6%  20,710  23,228   46.5%    52.1%
115    30,897  26,158   51.5%   43.6%  23,353  29,861   43.2%    55.3%
108    39,584  34,622   50.3%   44.0%  27,031  40,564   39.3%    59.0%
113    27,532  26,468   49.1%   47.2%  23,893  27,098   46.3%    52.5%
112    26,735  26,081   48.3%   47.1%  22,308  28,221   43.5%    55.0%
138    24,706  24,670   47.6%   47.5%  18,256  27,489   39.3%    59.2%
136    37,324  35,348   46.7%   44.2%  26,423  35,296   41.2%    55.1%


135    28,233  29,486   46.6%   48.6%  21,732  32,078   39.8%    58.8%
047    48,658  48,838   46.5%   46.7%  34,440  50,843   39.3%    58.0%
065    28,774  30,078   46.1%   48.1%  22,334  31,456   40.8%    57.5%
066    33,412  35,728   45.5%   48.7%  24,895  40,639   37.4%    61.0%
026    31,636  35,022   45.5%   50.4%  22,554  39,595   35.9%    62.9%
132    31,489  34,495   45.4%   49.7%  21,214  31,432   39.8%    58.9%
052    32,184  33,185   45.3%   46.7%  23,849  30,763   42.4%    52.7%
045    34,468  38,038   44.2%   48.8%  26,757  35,298   41.8%    55.2%

067    33,461  37,741   43.9%   49.5%  24,866  40,763   37.2%    60.9%
054    23,624  27,379   43.6%   50.5%  21,909  25,343   45.7%    52.9%
043    22,716  27,549   43.6%   52.9%  22,554  25,017   46.9%    52.0%
121    33,956  40,371   42.7%   50.8%  27,422  44,391   37.5%    60.7%
126    26,483  32,607   42.7%   52.6%  21,191  35,828   36.7%    62.1%
097    29,525  36,339   42.1%   51.8%  25,869  39,603   38.9%    59.6%

They’re grouped into districts that Clinton carried, districts where Clinton was within five points, and districts where she was within ten. The Obama/Romney numbers are there to add a little context, and to show where the most movement was. Some of these are in places you may not expect. HD136 is in Williamson County, as is HD52. HD 65 is in Denton, with HDs 66 and 67 in Collin. HD97 is in Tarrant. Note that while there were some big swings towards Clinton, not all of these districts were more favorable to Dems in 2016, with HD43 (held by turnout Republican JM Lozano) being the clearest exception. And a few of these are little more than optical illusions caused by deep-seated Trump loathing among a subset of Republicans. HD121 is Joe Straus’ district. It’s not going to be in play for the Dems in 2018. I would suggest, however, that the weak showing for Trump in Straus’ district is a big part of the reason why Straus is less amenable to Dan Patrick’s arguments about things like the bathroom bill and vouchers than many other Republicans. There are a lot fewer Republicans from the Dan Patrick wing of the party in Joe Straus’ district.

And because I’ve repeatedly said that we can’t just look at Presidential numbers, here are the numbers from the two three-way Court of Criminal Appeals races, which I have used before as a shorthand of true partisan leanings:


Dist    Burns Keasler  Burns%  Keasl% Hampton  Keller  Hampt%  Keller%
======================================================================
105    23,012  21,842   49.0%   46.5%  19,580  21,745   45.8%    50.8%
113    25,411  26,940   46.4%   49.2%  22,651  25,693   45.6%    51.7%
115    26,876  28,999   45.8%   49.4%  21,431  28,402   41.5%    55.0%
134    39,985  44,560   45.4%   50.6%  33,000  42,538   42.3%    54.5%
102    26,096  28,210   45.3%   49.1%  23,232  27,295   44.3%    52.1%
043    21,812  25,213   44.3%   51.2%  21,565  22,434   47.5%    49.4%
112    23,798  27,901   43.9%   51.4%  20,942  26,810   42.4%    54.3%
135    25,998  31,365   43.7%   52.8%  20,745  30,922   39.2%    58.4%
138    22,119  26,669   43.6%   52.6%  17,470  26,224   38.9%    58.4%
114    28,774  35,129   43.3%   52.8%  26,441  33,128   43.1%    53.9%
136    32,436  37,883   42.7%   49.9%  23,925  32,484   39.3%    53.3%
132    29,179  36,667   42.7%   53.6%  20,237  30,515   38.9%    58.6%
065    26,010  32,772   42.4%   53.4%  20,732  30,377   39.1%    57.3%
052    28,698  34,976   42.2%   51.4%  21,947  28,562   40.8%    53.1%
054    22,114  27,979   42.0%   53.1%  20,110  24,571   43.5%    53.2%
045    31,530  39,309   41.7%   52.0%  24,897  32,734   40.6%    53.3%
026    28,138  38,544   41.0%   56.2%  21,232  38,332   34.8%    62.8%
047    41,032  54,388   40.5%   53.7%  32,028  47,181   38.1%    56.1%
126    24,261  34,679   39.8%   56.8%  20,309  34,351   36.3%    61.3%
108    30,706  42,923   39.6%   55.4%  24,685  37,529   38.1%    57.9%
066    27,709  39,675   39.5%   56.6%  22,409  37,693   36.0%    60.6%
067    28,298  40,926   38.9%   56.7%  22,539  37,932   35.8%    60.3%
097    26,454  39,254   38.5%   57.2%  23,967  37,732   37.6%    59.2%
121    28,995  43,743   38.0%   57.3%  25,683  42,350   36.5%    62.0%

Clearly, this is a much less optimistic view of the situation than the first table. I am certain that some anti-Trump Republicans will be willing to consider voting against a Trump surrogate next year, but it’s way too early to say how many of these people there are, and we need to know what the baseline is in any event. Note that even in some of the less-competitive districts, there was a big swing towards the Dems, most notably in HD26 but also in HDs 115, 135, 138, and 66. It may be that some of these districts won’t be competitive till 2020, and it may be that some will need a real dampening of Republican enthusiasm to be on the board. But whatever the case, these are the districts where I would prioritize recruitment efforts and promises of logistical support.

The travel ban and the rural doctor shortage

Just another unintended consequence.

In Texas and across the country, foreign-trained doctors like the Iranian-born [Dr. Hossein] Yazdani fill a critical need in rural communities, which often struggle to attract physicians born and trained in the U.S. That reality has been highlighted in the weeks since President Donald Trump signed an executive order temporarily banning travel from several predominantly Muslim countries.

A revised version of the order issued Monday was intended to keep terrorists from entering the country, but it also threatens to block international medical graduates, who help fill a growing physician shortage.

Yazdani is a classic example. He came to Houston for a prestigious fellowship at Texas Heart Institute. When he completed the training in 1997, he was given two choices: Return to Iran, or apply for a J-1 visa waiver, which allows international doctors to stay in the U.S. in exchange for working as primary care physicians in medically underserved areas.

Yazdani went to work in Anahuac.

“I had to stay three years to meet my requirement,” he said during a recent interview at his clinic. “But after that, I was interested to stay here in the community. A lot of doctors are in the big city. But there are poor people here who I like to help.”

In Chambers County, where he practices, nearly 80 percent of residents voted for Trump. A few blocks from his tiny clinic, a huge “Trump-Pence” campaign sign is painted on the side of a barn.

But inside his office, he said, politics rarely comes up.

“Patients come to see me, and I help them. That is all,” he said. “Patients don’t ask where I come from.”

Physicians who attended medical school in the six countries affected by Trump’s new order – Iran, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan and Somalia – provide 14 million appointments to American patients each year, according to an analysis by Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology economists. That includes more than 2.3 million office visits in areas with doctor shortages.

[…]

The problem is bigger in Texas, [Travis Singleton, senior vice president of Merritt Hawkins, a Dallas-based medical recruiting firm] said, where an additional 13,000 doctors are needed just to bring the state in line with the national average of physicians-per-resident. Thirty-five of Texas’ 254 counties have no doctors at all. About 150 counties have no general surgeons, psychiatrists or gynecologists.

International doctors are helping fill the gap: A third of Texas’ doctors were born abroad, including more than 1,000 from one of the six countries named in Trump’s order, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis of Texas Medical Board licensing data.

The rural doctor shortage, in Texas and elsewhere, is nothing new. It was cited as a reason for passing the 2003 tort “reform” proposition, which doesn’t make any more sense now than it did then and which obviously hasn’t had much effect. My guess is that if it was pointed out to the Trump-voting people of Anahuac who have been patients of Dr. Yazani that they might never have had his services had a travel ban like Trump’s been in existence before, that they’d react the same was as those people in Illinois who didn’t understand why one of their longtime and well-liked local residents had been targeted for deportation. But he’s one of the good ones! That’s not what I voted for! Well, it is what you voted for, and the Trump administration doesn’t distinguish between “good” immigrants and “bad hombres”. Maybe check the fine print next time. In the meantime, will any Republican elected official who represents a rural county that may never have a doctor again speak up about this?

Third time for Tesla

If at first (and second) you don’t succeed

Tesla is not giving up at the Texas Capitol. In fact, it’s getting more ambitious.

Instead of looking to create any kind of carve-out that favors the high-end electric car maker, legislation filed Friday would simply allow any vehicle manufacturer to sell directly to Texans — bypassing the middleman dealers — in Tesla’s biggest challenge yet to a longstanding state ban on the practice.

The proposal “will allow manufacturers of vehicles any weight, class, size or shape to sell direct to consumers,” said state Rep. Jason Isaac, the Dripping Springs Republican who filed the legislation in the House. “It’s a simple, free-market bill to allow that to happen.”

State Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, is carrying the legislation in the upper chamber. He and Isaac filed their bills, Senate Bill 2093 and House Bill 4236, on Friday with hours to go until the deadline to submit legislation for the biennial session.

[…]

Dealerships have long argued the Texas direct-sales ban protects customers by ensuring that they have locations where they can buy cars across the state, not just in highly populated cities where manufacturers, if given the chance to sell directly, might otherwise set up shop. The opposition to such legislation also has an ally in Gov. Greg Abbott, who said after the 2015 session that Texas’ automobile sector seems to be “working quite well the way that it is.”

“Tesla’s legislation seeks to unravel the entire franchised dealer system in Texas, in favor of direct sales of motor vehicles by a manufacturer,” Texas Automobile Dealers Association president Bill Wolters said in a statement Friday. “SB 2093 and the reduced competition it will bring about in the new vehicle sales and service market will come at the expense of Texans and Texas.”

“No other vehicle manufacturer is seeking to change the law, and Tesla doesn’t need to either,” Wolters added.

For Isaac, the issue goes beyond Tesla. He recalled having something of an epiphany after recently touring an Amazon facility in Texas and seeing robots zip around with pallets: What if similar technology could one day be used to haul containers up and down the state’s highways?

“I really believe in the next 10 to 20 years we are going to see a complete change in our transportation system,” Isaac said, “and the last thing I want is any barrier to that technology being available.”

See here for previous Tesla blogging. I side with them on this, though as before I don’t expect them to overcome the resistance to their business model. (Neither does bill author Rep. Isaac, but I agree with his assertion that it’s worth having the conversation.) I love how Greg Abbott has sided with the legacy system here. It’s an apt summation of his vision and purpose. Anyway, as with driverless cars, this has been going on since 2013. It’s beginning to feel like a tradition making note of these bills each session. I just hope it’s a tradition that eventually has an end.

Of course Obamacare repeal would have a big negative effect on Texas

I mean, duh.

Right there with them

As many as a half-million Texans could become uninsured under the Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, wiping out at least half the gains the state has made in reducing the number of uninsured residents in recent years, according to health care analysts.

Texas still has the nation’s highest percentage of people without health insurance, but that uninsured rate has dropped significantly, falling to about 19 percent from 26 percent over the past four years. About 1 million more Texans gained coverage under the health care overhaul known as Obamacare, which became law in 2010.

Under the Republican plan to repeal and replace the health care law, 500,000 could lose coverage by 2020, either through changes in federal assistance to purchase coverage and Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor, or the end of individual mandates that require people to have insurance, said Ken Janda, president and CEO of Community Health Choice whose company offers insurance plans on the federal exchanges.

Analysts such as Vivian Ho, health economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, advocates like Elena Marks, CEO of Houston’s Episcopal Health Foundation, and insurers, such as Molina Healthcare, confirmed Janda’s estimates.

“Certainly, Texas is going to have more uninsured people again,” Janda said. “I don’t see much positive coming out of Congress.”

[…]

Dr. Mario Molina, CEO of the California-based Molina Healthcare, a Fortune 500 company, said in an interview he cannot yet commit that his company will be in the Texas market next year on the exchange because of the uncertainty that currently exists surrounding the promise to repeal and replace the ACA. Currently his company is one of only three insurers who offer ACA coverage in Houston.

“I am very nervous,” he said. “There is little that Congress has done so far that indicates the insurance market will be stable.”

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas, which offers plans on the exchange in every Texas county, including Harris, also expressed concerns about the uncertainty of federal health care policy.

“It’s imperative that we have market stability and regulatory certainty,” the company said in an emailed statement. “We will make decisions about our product offerings for 2018 once we have more information about any legislative or regulatory changes that will be made impacting the individual health insurance markets.

Health care providers, meanwhile, worry what will happen if hundreds of thousands of Texas residents lose insurance. Katy Caldwell, executive director of Houston’s Legacy Community Health, which serves many low-income patients, said fewer insured patients will mean longer wait times as clinic staff become overwhelmed. But a jump in the uninsured rate would create more than inconvenience, she said.

“The thing that really concerns me is people foregoing their medication. I hear it all the time now: ‘I have to choose between food and my medicine’ or ‘I cut my pill in half because I can make a 30-day supply last 60 days,'” Caldwell said. “This has every potential to get worse.”

Honestly, I think that half million estimate is very much on the low end, possibly the optimal scenario under the Ryan bill, which to be sure has no obvious path forward at this time. The provision that would not only freeze Medicaid enrollments but prevent anyone who fails to re-enroll for any reason from ever re-enrolling would surely force many more people off, just as the six-month re-enrollment period for CHIP that was passed by the 2003 Legislature contributed to so many more children going without health insurance. And all that is before we consider the possible chaos in the broader healthcare market. So yeah, if a few years from now we come out of this with only a half million people having lost coverage, I’d consider that to be better than I expected.