Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

March 1st, 2018:

Early voting, Day 9: Around the state again

Let’s just jump right in again…

EV 2010
EV 2014
Day 8 EV 2018 totals


Year  Party     Mail In Person    Total
=======================================
2010    Dem    5,035    16,107   21,142
2010    Rep   10,327    24,759   35,086

2014    Dem    5,456    12,405   17,861
2014    Rep   14,687    29,287   43,974

2018    Dem   12,914    36,785   49,699
2018    Rep   15,512    33,140   48,652

The second Wednesday is usually where the turnout curve starts to swing upward, with the last Friday always being the busiest day. We could see a lot more voters come out before the end of the week. And notice, for all the justifiable excitement about Democratic participation, Republican turnout so far is up, too. It’s just not up as much. There are many explanations for this, some of which have elements that ring true to me. I’m going to let the numbers speak for themselves.

Now let’s look statewide. Here’s how the top 14 counties by population have been voting on the Democratic side.


County      EV 2010  EV 2014  EV 2018     2010    2014
======================================================
Harris       21,142   17,861   49,699  101,263  53,788
Dallas       11,745   20,258   35,580   56,896  68,053
Tarrant       4,696   13,663   21,507   23,704  42,209
Bexar        13,741   17,431   28,630   43,338  44,835
Travis        7,904   13,597   32,139   38,915  48,495
Collin        1,475    3,102   10,986    6,229   9,584
Denton        1,006    2,311    8,644    4,678   7,212
El Paso      11,199   11,246   19,255   36,353  32,571
Fort Bend     2,472    2,559    8,935   14,890   8,549
Hidalgo      18,647   22,479   23,645           47,350
Montgomery      893      910    3,212    4,539   2,561
Williamson    1,688    2,397    8,846    7,148   7,243
Galveston     2,402    1,802    3,686            4,680
Cameron       5,395    6,777    6,019           18,472

Totals      104,405  136,393  260,783          395,602

All numbers are for the Dem primaries; some counties did not have 2010 data available. The first three columns are for the first eight days of early voting – i.e., through the second Tuesday – while the last two are the final totals for those years. With the three busiest days of early voting plus Primary Day to go, several counties have already exceeded their final tallies from 2014, with Harris County right behind. We’re already two thirds of the way to the final overall total for these counties. I’m not going to make a projection, I’m just pointing out where we are. I think cracking one million voters and having the strongest showing after 2008 is well within reach. Keep voting, y’all.

UPDATE: Here are your Day 9 totals. Dems are now almost at 60K.

Trib overview of CD23 primary

Definitely a key race.

Gina Ortiz Jones

Now, CD-23 is faced with its most crowded Democratic race in decades to determine who will duke it out in November in what is regularly ranked as one of the country’s most competitive districts. It spans San Antonio to El Paso and includes hundreds of miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, a massive, largely rural area with a predominantly Hispanic population.

Four Democrats are seriously vying for the seat in the March 6 primary: Judy Canales, a former Bill Clinton and Barack Obama appointee from Eagle Pass; Hulings, a former federal prosecutor from San Antonio; Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Air Force intelligence officer from San Antonio; and Rick Treviño, a former high school teacher from San Antonio who unsuccessfully ran for city council there before entering the TX-23 primary last year. A fifth Democrat, Angela “Angie” Villescaz, filed for the seat but does not appear to be running as active a campaign as the others.

With a week and a half until Election Day, much attention has centered on Hulings and Jones, who appear poised for a runoff if neither can garner over 50 percent of the vote on March 6. Propelled by EMILY’s List, the influential national group that helps elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, Jones has shown serious fundraising momentum, raking in $282,000 in the first 45 days of 2018 — more than three times Hulings’ total over the same period. She entered the homestretch of the race with a more than 2-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Hulings, $217,000 to $101,000.

Jay Hulings

The two are drawing their support from distinct corners of the Democratic universe. Hulings enjoys the support of Democratic congressional leaders such as House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, as well as political figures well known within the district, including his law school classmates, the Castro brothers. Hulings, who is Mexican-American, also has the backing of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the moderate Blue Dog Democrats.

Jones, meanwhile, is being backed by veterans and LGBT groups, in addition to EMILY’s List. She has also been endorsed by two of the most prominent women in Texas Democratic politics: Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte, two former state senators — Van de Putte is from San Antonio — who were the 2014 nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, respectively.

[…]

Waiting at the finish line of the Democratic primary is an increasingly well-positioned Hurd, who faces minimal opposition in his own nominating contest. Since his 2016 re-election, he has amassed a $1.2 million war chest and built a national profile as a rising-star Republican willing to break with his party’s president, Donald Trump.

In recent months, both Democratic- and Republican-aligned polling has found Hurd’s popularity far outpacing Trump’s in the district. So while his Democratic opponents certainly have their beefs with him — chief among them is that his voting record is not nearly as independent as his image suggests — they appear to have found a more galvanizing target in the president for now.

We’ve discussed Gina Ortiz Jones before. She got into the race late and was behind originally in fundraising, but she’s been a machine since December, blowing right past Jay Hulings. None of the other candidates are near their weight class. Doesn’t mean they’ll finish in the top two, but they do have all the advantages going in. As for Will Hurd, he has certainly done what he can to position himself well, but I feel like he could be the Lincoln Chafee of 2018 – liked by the voters, to the left of his partymates, but still voted out by an electorate that wanted to send a message to his President. I imagine he won’t have too many restful nights this year.

ACLU goes after Judge McSpadden

As well they should.

The ACLU of Texas is asking Harris County’s longest serving felony court judge to resign after making a statement to the Houston Chronicle on his views about black men’s attitudes toward the criminal justice system.

The civil rights group also is asking that the judge be automatically recused from cases involving African-American defendants until an investigation into potential racial bias occurs, according to a news release Tuesday.

[…]

“If there remained any doubt that the deck is stacked against people of color in our criminal justice system, Michael McSpadden just dispelled it,” said Terri Burke, executive director of the ACLU of Texas. “When a sitting judge feels comfortable enough to admit openly and on the record that he uses bail orders to jail black defendants on the assumption they can’t be trusted, it’s time to take action. This kind of flagrant racism has no place in our justice system.”

She said, “The Texas Commission on Judicial Conduct needs to take the first step toward rooting it out, and Judge McSpadden should voluntarily step down.”

McSpadden could not be immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday. His court staff said he was on the bench hearing cases.

The civil rights organization said McSpadden’s comments violate the Texas Code of Judicial Conduct and could merit removal from office.

“Judge McSpadden’s remarks are inexcusable, but not at all surprising for those of us who know the justice system well,” said former death row inmate Anthony Graves, who runs a criminal justice initiative for the ACLU of Texas.

See here for the background. Perhaps there’s some context Judge McSpadden can add to his comments, or perhaps he could just admit that was a dumb and offensive thing to say and offer an apology for it. People may or may not accept either action, but at least it would be something. In the absence of any such followup, one is left to conclude that he has nothing further to say on the matter. Whatever one may have thought of Judge McSpadden before now, that’s not a good look. And as a reminder, Judge McSpadden is up for election this fall. For all the griping some people do about partisan judicial elections, they do at least give the voters the chance to correct errors on the bench.

On a side note, two of Judge McSpadden’s colleagues on the misdemeanor courts are again urging the county to settle the bail lawsuit.

“The most conservative appellate court in this country, strict constitutional conservatives, have said that this practice that we are doing is unconstitutional,” said Judge Darrell Jordan, one of the defendants in the lawsuit.

Jordan told County Judge Ed Emmett and county commissioners that fighting the suit had already cost Harris County $6 million in legal fees. “I’m asking that you all cut this last check, fire these $6 million lawyers, let the County Attorney’s office come, and we all sit down and work out a settlement.”

Jordan’s co-defendant, Judge Mike Fields, urged Emmett and the commissioners to “use every tool in your arsenal to help us settle this lawsuit.” Fields added, “Our county needs to settle this for financial reasons, and our public needs it settled for reasons of good governance and confidence in the criminal justice system.”

Judge Emmett said he’s willing to settle on the basis of the 5th Circuit’s ruling, but said plaintiffs haven’t responded to offers to talk.

Judge Jordan, the lone Democrat on these benches, and Judge Fields have been the lone voices from those courts for sanity. Unfortunately, their colleagues remain uninterested in such matters as the cost of the litigation and the fact that they’ve lost at every step and looked bad in doing so. And they’re all up for election this November. See my comments above on that.

Texas blog roundup for the week of February 26

The Texas Progressive Alliance urges you to get out and vote in the Democratic primary as it brings you this week’s roundup.

(more…)