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September 25th, 2018:

Judicial Q&A: Meg Poissant

(Note: As I have done in past elections, I am running a series of Q&As for Democratic judicial candidates. This is intended to help introduce the candidates and their experiences to my readers. I am running these responses in the order that I receive them from the candidates. You can see other Q&As and further information about judicial candidates on my 2018 Judicial page.

Meg Poissant

1. Who are you and what are you running for?

My name is Margaret “Meg” Poissant and I am running for the 14th Court of Appeals, Place 8.

2. What kind of cases does this court hear?

The Court of Appeals decides appeals from civil and criminal cases in ten counties, with the exception of death penalty cases.

3. Why are you running for this particular bench?

The Court of Appeals should rule fairly with equal justice for all. I seek to bring my thirty-three years of experience and integrity to ensure justice for all Texans. The opinions of the incumbent are not always consistent or based on sound legal reasoning.

4. What are your qualifications for this job?

I have 33 years experience representing clients and trying civil cases, including personal injury, chemical exposure, wrongful death, probate, real estate, and complex business cases, many cases involving expert testimony and complex issues of law, as well as experience representing Defendants in criminal cases. My appellate experience includes appeals involving issues of insurance coverage, property damage, contract, and wrongful death.

I am Martindale-Hubbell AV Preeminent rated as having the highest ethical standards by both my peers and the judiciary. I am licensed in Texas and New York.

My memberships include the Texas Bar Association; Member of the New York Bar Association; Trial Lawyers of America; American Bar Association; Houston Bar Association; Texas Trial Lawyers Association; Houston Trial Lawyers Association; State Bar Committee; Houston Volunteer Lawyers Association; Harris County Democratic Lawyers Association; International Who's Who of Professionals; Notable Women of Texas; President Westwood Grove Civic Association; Committee Chair SN22 Ordinance Committee; Executive Committee Member- Legal and Communications Director for all of North America for a non-profit group; Special commendation from Humble Police Association for pro bono legal services; Board Member Shine Studios Board of Directors, a non-profit dedicated to issues of education for Latin American girls.

As a member of the Houston Volunteer Lawyers Association, I recently represented a non-status, indigent client in a case for 2 years, and 3 days in trial with a great result for the client; Volunteered for ARC of Greater Houston; Provided pro bono legal services to senior citizens, undocumented workers, neighbors and artists; pro bono legal counsel, as lead for the legal team, for all of North America for a national nonprofit foundation; Proactive member of the Super Neighborhood 22 Committees, ​devoting numerous hours to neighborhood quality of life issues; Volunteered for Avenue CDC (Community Development Corporation) art benefits to help finance the building of affordable homes and strengthening communities; Volunteer jurist for Fort Bend Contemporary Arts Museum; Charity fundraisers for various arts organizations and artists.

5. Why is this race important?

The Court of Appeals is often the last Court to rule on cases because the Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals hear very few cases. The Court of Appeals is often the last opportunity for justice in a case. It is important to have a fair justice on the bench with integrity and experience.

6. Why should people vote for you in November?

I am qualified and experienced, and I will bring justice and fairness to the rulings of the Court of Appeals. These rulings affect all Texans.

Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their own midterm forecast, based on a different model. And of course you are familiar with FiveThirtyEight, which (guess what) also has a 2018 Congressional forecast. What do we like to do when we have multiple data sources? We compare them, that’s what. Here are the forecasts for the Texas Congressional districts of interest:


Dist   XTab   Econ    538
=========================
CD02   15.1   50.0    9.3
CD03    6.4   29.0    0.9
CD06   16.5   40.0    7.3
CD07   50.3   27.0   46.6
CD10   21.0   13.0    2.6
CD14    6.4    1.0    1.3
CD17    4.4    1.0    0.5
CD21   20.3   50.0   20.3
CD22   20.5    8.0   14.8
CD23   66.3   83.0   49.4
CD24   29.0    9.0    4.5
CD25   11.3    0.0    7.0
CD27    6.5   20.0    0.3
CD31   11.2    4.0   20.1
CD32   47.4    1.0   17.4

Left to right, those are the projected percentage chances of a Democratic win in the given district from the Crosstab, the Economist, and 538. I have a hard time taking the Economist’s model seriously so I’m not going to say anything more about it. The other two provide an additional piece of data that’s worth looking at, which is a projection of the margin between the candidates in each district. Let’s look at that as well:


Dist   XTab    538   2012    2014   2016
========================================
CD02  - 9.1  -10.6  -26.9   -33.7  -20.3
CD03  -12.9  -20.6  -30.8   -37.1  -25.7
CD06  - 7.1  - 9.8  -16.7   -21.3  -15.2
CD07    0.1  - 0.6  -19.9   -31.4  -14.0
CD10  - 6.0  -15.9  -18.7   -22.6  -16.5
CD14  -12.4  -19.0  -15.2   -22.8  -21.3
CD17  -13.2  -22.5  -19.8   -28.9  -22.7
CD21  - 5.6  - 6.3  -22.0   -26.0  -18.7
CD22  - 6.2  - 8.5  -25.1   -33.3  -16.3
CD23    3.2  - 0.2  - 3.1   -15.5  - 1.2
CD24  - 4.0  -13.4  -23.3   -30.9  -15.9
CD25  - 9.0  -11.7  -20.0   -22.5  -21.5
CD27  -13.4  -25.4  -19.1   -30.3  -24.4
CD31  - 9.2  - 5.9  -21.0   -27.7  -19.3
CD32  - 0.4  - 6.6  -15.4   -23.7  -12.2

These numbers are all as of the September 23 update. They may have drifted a bit since then, one way or the other. I can tell you that in the few days that it took me to get my act together and finish writing this post, Democratic odds dropped a bit across the board, with the exception of an uptick in the 538 model in CD32. I have no idea if the loss in SD19 had anything to do with that, or if it was just reflecting whatever ebbs and flows their equations pick up on.

Note that 538 provides a range of possible vote shares for each candidate. In CD07, for example, they forecast a high of 55.1% and a low of 45.5% for John Culberson, with a high of 54.5% and a low of 44.9% for Lizzie Fletcher. The margin is the difference between the average forecast, which as of September 23 was 50.3% for Culberson and 49.7% for Fletcher. They take third party candidates into account as well. The Crosstab isn’t quite that granular, they just provide a forecast for the margin. Again, these numbers will drift around some.

The two points of interest here are where the forecasts differ – 538 is more bearish overall for Dems, though more optimistic in CD31 and considerably more pessimistic in CD32 – and how the current margins compare to previous years, which I show in the last three columns. As is my custom, I’m using judicial numbers for those margins, and for this I used one of the statewide judicial races. I don’t remember which one I picked for each year – did I mention that it took me a few days to write this post? – but it really doesn’t matter that much, they’re all within a point or so of each other. Look at the comparisons in the Harris County CDs – 02 and 07, which are entirely within the county, and 10 and 22, which are partially so. Everywhere you look, the indicators are for a rough year for the Harris County GOP. Never take anything for granted, of course, but dismiss the data at your peril as well. The postmortem here is going to be something.

Dallas County gets the Harris County treatment in its bail lawsuit

We have a precedent, even if everything is still a work in progress.

Taking a cue from the rulings on Harris County’s bail-setting practices, a U.S. district judge in Dallas issued a temporary order Thursday evening saying the county’s post-arrest procedures routinely violate inmates’ constitutional rights. The judge gave the county 30 days to change its ways.

U.S. District Judge David Godbey in Dallas said that the county has to stop the practice of imposing pre-set bail bond amounts, which often keep poor defendants locked up for days or weeks while letting wealthier ones go free, without individual consideration if arrestees claim they can’t afford it. He sided with the plaintiffs’ allegation that the county uses “wealth-based detention.”

“Wealthy arrestees — regardless of the crime they are accused of — who are offered secured bail can pay the requested amount and leave,” Godbey wrote. “Indigent arrestees in the same position cannot.”

[…]

Godbey relied heavily on Harris County rulings from the federal district court and the appellate court. He said the cases had the “same roots” — despite Dallas’ lawsuit also including felony defendants whereas Harris only involves those accused of misdemeanors — and concluded that doing anything other than what the appellate court ruled in Harris would “put the Court in direct conflict with binding precedent.”

“Broadly, those procedures include ‘notice, an opportunity to be heard and submit evidence within 48 hours of arrest, and a reasoned decision by an impartial decision-maker,’ he wrote, quoting the higher court’s ruling.

See here for some background, and here for an earlier story on how bail hearings have been done in Dallas. You know where I stand on this, and we both know that Dallas County has Democratic leadership, and thus I hope more than enough incentive to find a settlement. Some long overdue change is coming, and it is in everyone’s best interests to embrace it. The Chron and the Observer have more.