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November 1st, 2018:

Early voting, Day 10: Happy Halloween

Here are the totals for Wednesday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies:


Year    Mail    Early    Total
==============================
2010  48,478  288,568  337,046
2014  63,857  220,505  284,362
2018  82,009  605,869  687,878

2008  49,558  513,888  563,446
2012  61,972  549,816  611,788
2016  89,271  700,697  789,968

There was a dip in participation yesterday, which I would attribute to one part Halloween and one part bad weather. My guess is the numbers will bounce right back today. We are still very much on track to exceed the entire turnout for 2010 by the end of early voting.

UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke

Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.

According to the poll, which is the first one released by the university, 47 percent of the 905 likely voters surveyed online and on the phone said they would vote for Cruz, while 43.4 percent said they would vote for O’Rourke; 5.7 percent said they were “not sure,” and 3.9 percent chose “other.”

Among registered voters in the poll, Cruz’s lead was slightly larger at 4.3 percentage points, with 46.5 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Cruz, 42.2 percent saying they would vote for O’Rourke, 7.7 percent saying they were “not sure” and 3.5 percent choosing “other.”

The poll follows a slate of polls that show Cruz’s lead over O’Rourke narrowing. A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday said Cruz was up by 5 percentage points, and a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Friday showed Cruz up by 6.

The UT-Tyler poll was conducted Oct. 15-28 and surveyed 1,033 adults. The margin of error among likely voters was 3.26 percentage points, while the margin of error among registered voters was 3.03 percentage points, according to Mark Owens, a political science professor at UT-Tyler who helped run the poll.

You can see the poll data here. I’ve no idea how UT-Tyler is as a polling outfit, but we’ll see how they do. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t ask respondents if they have already voted if your time in the field includes a week of early voting, but maybe that’s just me. The poll also has Greg Abbott up by 20 on Lupe Valdez, which is easily the largest difference between that race and Beto/Cruz. They have Valdez down in the low 30s. As you know, I don’t think there will be nearly that much separation between Beto and Lupe – some, but not double digits. The overall sample seems a bit Republican-leaning, based on their Trump/Clinton numbers, but perhaps that’s a function of their likely voter screen. Anyway, I’ll say again that I think this will be the last poll result we’ll see before we see the canonical one that counts.

Shame on you, Stan Stanart

Just go away.

Judging by Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart’s campaign website, you might think that he is running against George Soros — the billionaire Jewish philanthropist who’s become a worldwide lightning rod for anti-Semitic groups, white supremacists and conspiracy theorists, but who has no apparent connection to the county clerk’s duties or to any current Harris County race.

“Make NO mistake,” begins the main article on re-elect.stanstanart.com. “George Soros wants to control Harris County Elections and Stan Stanart is in his way…. There are many more Flag Waving, defenders of the Constitution then [sic] those who support Soros’ world views, but remember ‘All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing.’”

The page unnerves observers attuned to historic attacks on Jews — particularly in light of the past two weeks, in which a Trump supporter sent a pipe bomb to Soros’ house, and a conspiracy-theory-fueled neo-Nazi gunman killed 11 congregants at a Pittsburgh synagogue.

Stanart’s focus on Soros is “clearly a dog whistle,” said Houston voter Rachel Dvoretzky, who discovered Stanart’s website last week via a discussion on Facebook. “It’s red meat for a wave of anti-Semitism that’s infecting American public discourse right now.”

The Anti-Defamation League noted earlier in October that Soros had become the focus of “outsized conspiracy theories, including claims that he masterminds specific global plots or manipulates particular events to further his goals. Many of those conspiracy theories employ longstanding anti-Semitic myths, particularly the notion that rich and powerful Jews work behind the scenes, plotting to control countries and manipulate global events.”

That’s part of a rising tide of anti-Semitism, which had been growing fast even before the past week’s violence. According to the ADL, in 2017, the number of reported anti-Semitic incidents in the U.S. surged 57 percent.

Stanart, for his part, said there’s no anti-Semitic intent behind his website. “Are you serious?” he shouted on the phone. “Are you serious?”

Asked about the ADL statement decrying conspiracy theories related to Soros, Stanart called it “B.S.! Big B.S.! He meddles in lots of races across the U.S. It has nothing to do with religion.”

I’m going to pay Stanart the compliment of taking it as a given that he’s not too stupid to grasp why the obsession that people like him have with George Soros is stinkingly anti-Semitic. Thankfully, Stanart is apparently able to be shamed (eventually), so there you have it, two nice things I can say about the man. Not much else to say beyond that except that all decent people should vote him out of office.

Texas blog roundup for the week of October 29

The Texas Progressive Alliance urges everyone who has voted to work to get more people to the polls as it brings you this week’s roundup.

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