Early Census estimates

These are not official numbers but give a pretty good idea of what the final numbers will look like.

Figures released Monday suggest the nation’s population is between 305.7 million and 312.8 million.

The middle estimate of 308.5 million would be an 8.8 percent increase since 2000, down substantially over the previous decade’s 13.2 percent growth.

Even the highest estimate would mean the population grew by only 11 percent.

Census Bureau officials said most of the uncertainty is linked to the difficulty of estimating how many people have immigrated to the United States, legally and illegally. The new figures also confirm earlier research showing huge growth in the number of young Hispanics.

“That’s absolutely dramatic demographic change,” said Luis Salinas, a sociologist at the University of Houston, who noted that the growth is highest for children 3 and younger, as birth rates in the white, black and Asian populations dropped during the recession.

Hispanic birth rates dropped, too, but not as much, he said.

[…]

The figures show that Hispanics are growing as a percentage of young people. They now represent as much as 25 percent of people younger than 20, up from 17 percent in 2000.

Salinas said the figures will be even higher in the Southwest as Hispanic birth rates overtake relatively low birth rates for other groups.

Something that I never see explained in any of these stories is why it is that the birth rate among Anglos is so much lower than it is among Hispanics. I get that Anglos are on average older than Hispanics, but is that a cause or an effect? Anyway, there’s new Census data to play with for those of you who like that sort of thing.

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One Response to Early Census estimates

  1. trowaman says:

    I think I got your answer to Hispanic birth rates (just hit me)

    Hispanics are mainly Catholic, low condom usage and tend to reject abortion. Result = faster population growth.

    Ta-da.

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