The following comparison comes out of a conversation I had yesterday with Greg and the realization that it hasn’t gotten anywhere near the attention I think it deserves. I’m talking about the result out in House Speaker Tom Craddick’s district, HD82, which covers Crane, Dawson, Martin, Midland, and Upton counties. This is, needless to say, one of the most Republican parts of the state. Look at the 2006 election results (PDF) for the district; at a quick glance, it’s hard to tell the difference between races with a Republican and a Democrat, and the races with a Republican and a Libertarian. This year, Craddick, who had a Democratic challenger for the first time in forever in Bill Dingus, won with a smidge more than 62% of the vote to Dingus’ 35% (there was a Lib as well). That may not seem very interesting, but consider this:
County Craddick Dingus McCain Obama ======================================== Crane 821 483 1,119 319 Dawson 2,483 1,283 2,906 1,152 Martin 711 893 1,389 314 Midland 28,526 15,798 36,155 9,691 Upton 661 413 898 288 Totals 33,302 18,870 42,467 11,764
Call me crazy, but that looks like an awful lot of Republican voters – about 7 or 8 thousand of them – who crossed over to vote for Dingus. Remember, this is Tom “Speaker For Life” Craddick, arguably the most powerful politician in Texas, who has represented this district for 40 years we are talking about. And lest you think this is some skewed result that just shows West Texas antipathy to Barack Obama, here’s a few more comparisons:
County Craddick Dingus Cornyn Noriega ========================================= Crane 821 483 990 319 Dawson 2,483 1,283 2,742 1,064 Martin 711 893 1,252 343 Midland 28,526 15,798 35,514 8,798 Upton 661 413 830 255 Totals 33,302 18,870 41,328 10,779 County Craddick Dingus Williams Thompson =========================================== Crane 821 483 857 394 Dawson 2,483 1,283 2,366 1,214 Martin 711 893 1,142 371 Midland 28,526 15,798 34,736 8,857 Upton 661 413 716 294 Totals 33,302 18,870 39,817 11,130 County Craddick Dingus Wainwright Houston ============================================ Crane 821 483 797 412 Dawson 2,483 1,283 2,275 1,275 Martin 711 893 1,056 394 Midland 28,526 15,798 33,032 9,752 Upton 661 413 671 305 Totals 33,302 18,870 37,831 12,138 County Craddick Dingus Johnson Yanez ========================================= Crane 821 483 834 398 Dawson 2,483 1,283 2,439 1,169 Martin 711 893 1,104 376 Midland 28,526 15,798 33,426 9,367 Upton 661 413 686 293 Totals 33,302 18,870 38,489 11,603
No matter how you slice it, other Republicans get thousands more votes than Craddick. And the effect is by far the strongest in Craddick’s home county of Midland, where apparently to know him is not necessarily to love him.
And just to prove that this is a recent phenomenon, here’s Craddick versus Bush in 2004:
County Craddick Bush ========================= Crane 1,121 1,314 Dawson 2,779 3,419 Martin 1,107 1,514 Midland 36,373 36,585 Upton 857 1,009 Totals 42,237 43,841
Craddick was unopposed that year; Bush may as well have been in those counties. Ah, Midland. What did Tommy ever do to you?
Anyway. I point all this out, apparently just as the arm-twisting efforts on Craddick’s behalf are being ramped up, so that the next time you hear a Craddick acolyte, like Rep. Will Hartnett or Burnet County Republican Linda Rogers, president of Texas Republican county chairmen, claim that opposition to Craddick is all about “liberals”, you ask them to explain those good, solid Republicans in Midland and the rest of HD82 who voted to oust him from the House. Maybe, just maybe, it’s possible to be a Republican and to think Tom Craddick is bad for Texas, too.
Excellent analysis.