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Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008.

Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn Noriega ======================================== HD126 63.86% 36.14% 62.26% 37.74% HD127 70.57% 29.43% 67.93% 32.07% HD128 72.95% 27.05% 66.87% 33.13% HD129 65.92% 34.08% 61.64% 38.36% HD130 77.23% 22.77% 74.54% 26.46% HD131 16.84% 83.16% 17.37% 82.63% HD132 60.83% 39.17% 60.02% 39.98% HD133 68.91% 31.09% 67.19% 32.81% HD134 57.28% 42.72% 55.21% 44.79% HD135 60.51% 39.49% 61.04% 38.99% HD137 36.31% 63.69% 36.85% 63.15% HD138 61.32% 38.68% 59.72% 40.28% HD139 24.74% 75.26% 23.36% 76.64% HD140 31.36% 68.64% 28.00% 72.00% HD141 13.22% 86.78% 14.11% 85.89% HD142 23.00% 77.00% 20.27% 79.73% HD143 33.60% 66.40% 28.89% 71.11% HD144 49.50% 50.50% 45.22% 54.78% HD145 41.21% 58.79% 34.99% 65.01% HD146 21.07% 78.93% 21.56% 78.44% HD147 21.64% 78.36% 18.50% 81.50% HD148 43.49% 56.51% 38.34% 61.66% HD149 43.47% 56.53% 43.88% 56.12% HD150 69.92% 30.08% 67.33% 32.67%

As before, I’m omitting the third party candidates and just giving the two-party percentages. Even with that, this isn’t a perfect comparison, since the candidates are different. Rick Noriega, running in a year with maximal Democratic turnout, scored a majority of the vote in the county, while Paul Sadler trailed Ted Cruz. Also, while Noriega wasn’t exactly swimming in campaign cash, he did raise over $4 million in his race, or about ten times what Sadler collected. Noriega had actual staffers on his campaign, Sadler was basically a one-man show. As such, one should expect better performance from Noriega overall; among other things, Noriega only lost about 7000 votes from Obama’s total, while the lesser-known Sadler dropped 23,000 votes from Obama. Still, it’s interesting to see the range of percentages in the Latino districts, to compare the two Latino candidates, one from each party. All things considered, Cruz didn’t do that much better than John Cornyn. His name may have given him a boost in the Latino areas, but the overall decline in Latino support for Republicans was a drag on that.

But how much of a boost did Cruz get? The number we’ve heard tossed around is six percent, so let’s compare Sadler’s share of the Obama vote to Cruz’s share of the Romney vote:

Dist Sadler Obama Ratio ================================ CD29 64.73% 66.60% 0.97 SD06 65.26% 67.14% 0.97 HD140 68.64% 70.74% 0.97 HD143 66.40% 67.82% 0.98 HD144 50.50% 51.47% 0.98 HD145 58.79% 61.13% 0.96 HD148 56.51% 57.92% 0.98 Dist Cruz Romney Ratio ================================ CD29 35.27% 33.40% 1.06 SD06 34.74% 32.86% 1.06 HD140 31.36% 29.26% 1.07 HD143 33.60% 32.18% 1.04 HD144 49.50% 48.53% 1.02 HD145 41.21% 38.87% 1.06 HD148 43.49% 42.08% 1.03

So Sadler got between 96 and 98 percent of Obama’s vote, while Cruz improved on Romney by two to seven percent. A six percent boost is therefore plausible, but notice what I’ve done here: I’ve compared percentages, not raw vote totals. This actually makes it look better for Cruz, for two reasons. One is that the sheer number of votes is fairly small. Add up all the votes in the five State Rep districts above (CD29 and SD06 largely overlap those districts, so including them would double- and triple-count a lot of votes) and you get the following:

Romney 55,839 votes, Obama 89,709 votes, meaning Romney got 38.36% of the vote overall.
Cruz 56,605 votes, Sadler 84,891 voters, which is 40.00% for Cruz.

Putting it another way, Cruz’s percentage was 4.29% better than Romney’s, but his vote total was only 1.37% better. While Cruz clearly picked up some Obama voters, what largely drove his improvement over Romney in percentage of the vote was undervoting on the Democratic side. It’s fair to blame some of this on Sadler’s lack of finances, though how much is hard to say. Still, my point is that depending on how you look at it, Cruz’s improvement on Romney is pretty modest, at least in Harris County.

You may be looking at those percentages above and thinking “Hey, these guys did pretty well in Latino areas. I thought Republicans were supposed to have sucked wind this cycle with Latinos.” Remember that this kind of analysis is a very blunt instrument. There’s still a lot of non-Latino voters in these districts, and for what it’s worth the most heavily Latino district (HD140) is the one where Cruz and Romney did the worst. You can see population and voting age population (VAP) totals for each district here, but even that only tells you so much since it doesn’t say what the citizen voting age population (CVAP) is, and of course we don’t know what the Latino versus non-Latino turnout in each district was. This is what I’ve got to work with, so this is what I can tell you.

One last point to make is that Cruz actually got more votes than Romney in nearly all of the Democratic state rep districts:

Dist Cruz Romney Ratio ================================ HD131 7,144 6,851 1.04 HD137 8,488 8,468 1.00 HD139 12,382 12,138 1.02 HD140 7,160 6,846 1.05 HD141 4,949 4,617 1.07 HD142 9,366 9,194 1.02 HD143 9,916 9,771 1.01 HD145 11,674 11,374 1.03 HD146 10,261 10,112 1.01 HD147 11,340 11,107 1.02 HD148 16,325 16,268 1.00 Total 109,005 106,746 1.02

Cruz trailed Romney in vote totals in HDs 144 and 149. Overall, Cruz got 2.11% more votes than Romney in these Democratic districts. He did not lead Romney in any Republican district. It should be noted that while the others listed here aren’t officially “Latino” districts, Latinos comprise a majority of the VAP in HD137 and a significant minority in all the others, at least 27% in each case. Again, though, we’re talking VAP and not CVAP, so tread carefully. We can only guess about who the Obama/Cruz voters were and why they chose to split the ticket in that fashion.

That’s all for today. More on these and other races next week and after Thanksgiving.

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