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Bob Stein on the District I runoff

I’ll cut to the chase and just excerpt the conclusion of Rice poli sci prof Bob Stein’s analysis of the District I runoff between Graci Garces and Robert Gallegos.

The runoff election in District I should be highly competitive with the slight advantage to Garces. Gallegos must rely on turning out [Leticia] Ablaza’s supporters, who appear to be more likely to support his candidacy over Garces. Voter turnout in District I was only 9 percent, well below the citywide voter turnout at 18 percent. [Sen. Sylvia] Garcia’s support of Gallegos should be instrumental in providing Gallegos the resources needed to turn out Ablaza’s supporters for the runoff. [Rep. Carol] Alvarado’s support of Garces and her history of support in the district (she was District I city council member for six years) and Ablaza’s voters past support of Alvarado provides Garces a potential advantage.

He arrives at those conclusions via some heavier-duty math than what I usually bring, but don’t worry, it’s all summed up in graphs. Check it out. Via Campos.

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9 Comments

  1. joshua ben bullard says:

    Here are the final vote numbers in this race on election night, Robert Gallegos is at 51.4% and Graci Garces at 49.6%=We need new vision in district I,Robert Gallegos provides district I with balanced leadership that will arm the district with increased jobs,safer schools,and better quality of life,therefore I Joshua ben bullard along with community leader Charles x white endorse Robert Gallegos for Houston city council district I.

    Joshua ben bullard#voteGallegos

  2. Julian Deleon says:

    I think Gallegos is going to be the next City Council Member for District I.

  3. Jason says:

    Robert will most likely win. Based on the experience Graci says she has, I’m surprised she has gone negative. She has also immersed herself in trivial issues such as Robert’s last name. Robert will most likely win.

  4. Hobby Lobby says:

    I still put my money on Garces.

  5. Bob S. says:

    Gallegos has surprised me! To be honest, I did not think he had a chance, but Boy did his machine kick in. People are responding to him very well and he has all those endorsements. Gallegos ain’t playing. I think it is imminent he will be the next City Council Member. A guy from the neighborhood that did well. That is a good story. Good for him!

  6. Jim Kovach says:

    It is troubling that Garces lived in Humble shortly before running for the office. She seems to thinks it is an office to be handed down instead of representing the district starting by knowing the people and citizens from living with them. I’m supporting Gallegos.

  7. R Shaw says:

    I’m for Graci Garces but I think either candidate will be a good representative for District I. The best thing to come from the district I results so far is that Leticia Gutierrez Ablaza came in last again, and now that she’s lost again I understand she is backing to claiming to be a Republican (even though she claimed to be a democrat while campaigning). I don’t think most people trust politicians that change, or hide from their political party affiliation based on the political climate or the demographics in which they are running. This type of trickery has become only one of Leticia Gutierrez Ablazas dishonest trade marks since she first stepped into politics.
    Garces and Gallegos are democrats, and are not ashamed to say they are democrats. Thanks for the honesty Graci and Robert.

  8. R Shaw says:

    I’m for Graci Garces but I think either candidate will be a good representative for District I. The best thing to come from the district I results so far is that Leticia Gutierrez Ablaza came in last again, and now that she’s lost again I understand she is backing to claiming to be a Republican (even though she claimed to be a democrat while campaigning). I don’t think most people trust politicians that change, or hide from their political party affiliation based on the political climate or the demographics in which they are running. This type of trickery has become only one of Leticia Gutierrez Ablazas dishonest trade marks since she first stepped into politics.
    Garces and Gallegos are democrats, and are not ashamed to say they are democrats. Thanks for the honesty Graci and Robert.

  9. R Garza says:

    Robert might be from the neighborhood but he is not qualified for city council. As president of the civic club he did not follow through on anything. He did not follow through to get the civic club bills paid on time. He ignored the deed restrictions in his neighborhood. He will not fight for you. He is a poor manager. He is not a leader. Even though Robert lives in the neighborhood, he has done nothing to protect it. It is all about Robert.

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