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Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

One last election to review:


Dist     Brown  Frazer
======================
A        5,232   7,918
B       13,161   2,616
C       15,244  15,726
D       16,390   4,197
E        6,118  16,073
F        3,890   3,527
G        8,775  21,762
H        6,558   3,117
I        5,253   2,731
J        2,794   2,763
K       10,632   5,434

A       39.79%  60.21%
B       83.42%  16.58%
C       49.22%  50.78%
D       79.61%  20.39%
E       27.57%  72.43%
F       52.45%  47.55%
G       28.74%  71.26%
H       67.78%  32.22%
I       65.79%  34.21%
J       50.28%  49.72%
K       66.18%  33.82%
Chris Brown

Chris Brown

Chris Brown was the only runoff candidate who did not finish first in November to win in the runoffs. Brown ran better than Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner in every district except the three predominantly African-American ones, and he still had very strong showings in those districts. He won districts F and J, both of which Turner did not win, and came within 500 votes of winning District C. Some of that was due to a successful strategy of making this a D-versus-R race – Brown had multiple email blasts going out in the days after the November race highlighting endorsements from a phalanx of Democratic elected officials, including many African-American officials, which no doubt helped him in B, D, and J – and some of it was his continued TV advertising, which likely helped keep the undervote rate to a modest 14.20%, the lowest among citywide races. I can’t say for sure if Brown did a better job of holding on to Turner supporters than Frazer did of holding on to King supporters or if he claimed some crossover voters. It’s not clear because despite Brown’s better performance in the districts I cited, he still had a lower absolute vote total in all of them, so I can’t say for sure that there had to be some King/Brown voters. I’m sure there were some, I just can’t put any numbers to it. Whatever the case, it worked. Brown won, by a 10,000 vote margin.

As for Frazer, this is two close losses for him. The “thanks to my supporters” email he sent out after the runoff said he intends “to stay very involved in the financial issues of Houston as a private citizen, not as a candidate”, so I suspect this was his last campaign. That said, four years is a long time, and people have been known to reconsider. Maybe the Chronicle will want someone to take over their “pension reform columnist” gig. I didn’t agree with Frazer on a number of things, but I respected the way he ran for the office. You knew what he believed in and what he would do about it. We can always use more of that.

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2 Comments

  1. Government should be a place of innovation, not where dinosaurs go to die.

    I hope this past election was the last time King, Hall and Frazer decide to run.

    Their financial ideas and economic platforms were embarrassing, and mathematically impossible.
    This really isn’t rocket science.

    This is 2016, not 1776.

    In regards to their Houston Chronicle, I wasn’t impressed with the screening process or questions.
    We are a Fortune 500 capitol.

    When you have mayoral and council candidates using smoke and mirror for their own personal gain on basic public policy, of course voters will be confused.

    Congrats to Brown and Turner.
    Both Candidates support repealing the revenue cap and HERO.

  2. Steve Houston says:

    Joseph, while I agree Hall, Frazer and King were heavily flawed, I doubt very much most of your laundry list of goals has a chance in hell of passing. Things such as giving workers 30 more days of time off in the form of FMLA (rather than letting them use their own time when ill as happens now), are about as likely as Turner fully funding pensions without any cuts, trims, or adjustments.

    Imposing additional costs on local businesses is unlikely to garner much support either, the bulk of the progressive agenda you espouse. Given existing budgetary limitations, Turner is unlikely to even entertain most such things as impractical, revenue cap reversal or not.