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The trend in mail ballots

Wanted to take a closer look at the not-in-person aspect of early voting:


Year   Mailed  Returned  Return%    Dem %
=========================================
2008   76,187    68,612   90.06%   36.60%
2010   69,991    55,560   79.38%   30.82%
2012   92,290    76,085   82.44%   41.79%
2014   89,073    71,994   80.83%   48.94%
2016  123,999   101,594   81.93%   51.56%
2018  119,742    89,098*  74.41%*

“Mailed” is the number of mail ballots sent out, “Returned” is the number that were returned. This number is higher for the previous years than what I’ve been reporting in the daily EV posts because these numbers represent the final total, not what had arrived by the day in question. (The asterisk besides the 2018 numbers is to indicate that these are still in progress, and thus not directly comparable.) Remember, mail ballots that arrive between Friday and Tuesday also count. Going by past history, we can probably expect the total number of mail ballots to increase by three to five thousand, so the final percentage of ballots returned this year will be in the vicinity of 78%.

“Dem%” is a representative figure to illustrate how many mail voters were Democrats. For 2008 and 2012, that was the Presidential voters. For 2016, I went down to one of the Court of Criminal Appeals races, so as not to have this distorted by the crossover vote in the Presidential race that year. For 2010 and 2014, I used the Lt. Governor race. The HCDP began a program to get eligible Democratic voters to request and return mail ballots, and you can see the result as the Dem share of that vote increased. Sure, some of that was merely people shifting behavior, but some of it was new or less-likely voters participating. My expectation is that Dems will generally win the mail ballots this year. I don’t have any larger point to make, I just wanted to take a look at this for myself and see what there was.

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23 Comments

  1. Mainstream says:

    Some firmly Republican elderly voters have reported to me that they did not get any mail ballot application from the Party or any campaign this year, so I will expect the D share to be 54% or higher this year.

  2. Manny Barrera says:

    Making excuses for the party of hate already, mainstream?

  3. Mainstream says:

    Let’s see if I got this right, Manny. Dan Crenshaw is ridiculed on Saturday Night Live for losing an eye in combat, but it is the Republicans who are the party of hate in your warped view of the world.

  4. Flypusher says:

    Pin that blame where it belongs- on SNL, which last time I checked was not a political party. Also note that there was bipartisan condemnation of that tasteless joke. As for the claims that the GOP is the party of hate, all that racist fear mongering over a bunch of desperate hungry refugees who aren’t anywhere near the border, while giving fuel to the domestic terrorists (2 shootings and a bunch of mail bombs in one week) sound pretty damn hateful to me.

  5. Manny Barrera says:

    My warp view, when you start saying the same about the deplorable ad that your party and the people who are running, then I will consider that you are serious about where the hate is coming from. Factually he was in a combat zone when he lost the eye, not in combat. By the way the comedian apologized, still waiting for you and Trump tp apologize for all the hate on the caravan and people from Mexico and Central America.

    The above is for you Mainstream, you still believe that Stan Stanart was using Soros name because Soros is Jewish?

  6. Manny Barrera says:

    By the way Mainstream, I have not heard Crenshaw apologize for the ad that the Republican Party is running that is so racist that some TV stations are not running it.

    I have not heard Crenshaw apologize for tearing children out parents arms.

    I have not heard Crenshaw apologize for Trump saying that is okay to shoot people who throw rocks.

    Did Crenshaw apologize for the Jewish murders in Pittsburgh? No

    So spare me, you belong to the party of hate Mainstream. I have not heard you apologize either.

  7. Jules says:

    Pretty much everyone agrees that the Republican caravan ad is lying racist hate.

    Some comedian on SNL is not the Democratic party.

    Mainstream, you have the warped view.

  8. Bill Daniels says:

    Manny,

    You should get with Kuff and print a book of your posts here, I have the title of the book all ready for you,

    Everyone I Disagree with is a Racist

    by Manny Barrera

    🙂

  9. Manny Barrera says:

    Bill, why would I lie, that is for you and your fellowship of evil. Not everyone that I disagree with is a racist, just the Trump Party fellowship. There are exceptions but they are exceptions.

  10. Mainstream says:

    After the election, I suggest all the regular commentators ought to get together for beers/coffee somewhere some night, as a gesture of unity. I propose Cafe Brasil, 7 p.m., Thursday Nov. 15. I will bring nametags.

  11. Paul Kubosh says:

    Manny, sorry to say but Bill nailed you. That was very funny.

  12. Manny Barrera says:

    Bill I want to leave you with some good news, the latest polls show Pete Sessions losing.

    Mainstream you mean I get to find out who all you really are? I will think on it, but I have an adult autistic child, that I take every where with me, so I normally don’t go to many places.

  13. Bill Daniels says:

    I would be amenable to meeting the motley crew here, especially if Manny shows up!

  14. Ross says:

    So, Manny, you think it’s not OK to shoot people throwing rocks? What should the reaction be? Is it OK to shoot people throwing rocks if one of the rocks hits someone and kills them? Or should authorities just stand there and get hit? Rocks can be deadly, and the response to rock throwing around the world often involves application of lethal force in some form.

  15. Manny Barrera says:

    No Ross I don’t think they should throw people for throwing rocks.

    When did a rock kill someone Ross? They are wearing helmets, Ross.

    Look why not take your AR-15 and go start shooting Brown People Ross, if it makes you happy.

    While you are at it, use your Ar-15 to go into a place where people are praying and shoot them because, just because.

    They throw beers during the parade for the Red Socks, you can shoot them people also Ross.

    They throw tomatoes in Spain, Ross you can shoot those people also.

    I am being stupid Ross, but no more than you.

  16. Manny Barrera says:

    No, shoot people for throwing rocks

  17. Manny Barrera says:

    Did the Mexican police start shooting at them rock throwers, Ross?

    What is wrong with you gun crazies, it is like you are looking for reasons to kill people.

  18. Jules says:

    Nobody has thrown a rock and Ross wants to shoot asylum seekers. Why would they throw rocks?

  19. Bill Daniels says:

    The Mexican federales were overrun by el cerotes, who threw rocks and burned the Mexican immigration center to the ground BECAUSE the federales failed to shoot, failed to defend their border. The Hondurans followed the Palestinian model of using violence to achieve their objective, then using women and children as human shields to prevent repercussion.

    We’ve been told more groups are on their way. If you like this free wheeling, violent, mass immigration model, then the US needs to do nothing. If, on the other hand, you don’t want to see the US flooded with unvetted, mostly uneducated and poor folks from totally not shithole countries, then something has to be done.

    Here’s what throwing rocks can do:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5100891/Border-Patrol-agent-killed-rock-throwers-ambush.html

    I don’t know why having more dead Americans like BP Agent Rogelio Martinez is somehow more noble than repelling an invasion force of mostly military age foreigners carrying the flag of the country they are supposedly fleeing from.

  20. Manny Barrera says:

    Do you ever stop spreading lies Bill? Martinez was an accident.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/04/02/598872658/a-border-patrol-agent-dies-mysteriously-the-sheriff-has-a-simple-theory

    But I understand that Aliens have landed in the Amazon forest, and are creating a clone army that will soon be attacking us. Help me spread that Bill.

  21. C.L. says:

    Always good for a laugh. Conflating Honduran refugees fleeing gangs and economic ruin with Palestinians suffering under Israeli rule/occupation ? Guffaw. Highly unlikely these folks are atune to those folks method of resistance.

    And when did a rock kill someone ? When David slay Goliath.

  22. Manny Barrera says:

    C.L. is that in the book where they placed dinosaurs in the Ark?

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