BOR reported last week on a poll of Texas Latinos conducted by PAC Plus. They zeroed in on the questions that had to do with Latinos’ impressions of Republicans and Democrats. For the survey PAC+ interviewed 2,685 randomly selected registered Hispanic voters in Texas counties with the highest number of Latino eligible voters: Bexar, Dallas, [...]
Posts Tagged ‘Barack Obama’
Not just Austin, dammit
What Flavia Isabel says: The single purpose of this post is to eradicate the phrase “Oh yeah, Austin is a blue dot in a sea of red” from the vocabulary of anybody who cares about turning Texas blue. I am so incredibly sick and tired of hearing this refrain. It’s part of the Austin mythology. [...]
News flash: Ted Cruz is not KBH
I know, I’m as shocked as you are. For nearly two decades, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison delivered thousands of federal projects to Texas that added billions of dollars to the state’s economy. The leader of a bipartisan approach known as “Team Texas,” Hutchison worked with Democrats and Republicans to send federal dollars to Texas, even [...]
Nate Silver takes another look at Texas
It’s always about the numbers. Since President Obama’s re-election in 2012, Republicans have worried about what an increasingly diverse electorate will mean for their future as a national party. Democrats, meanwhile, have started talking about turning ruby red states like Arizona and Texas blue. How worried should Republicans be? And how realistic are those Democratic [...]
Battlegound Texas officially launches
You have probably heard by now that Battleground Texas has officially launched. Spearheaded by organizers of Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012 — when Republican nominee Mitt Romney handily carried the Lone Star State — a new push, called “Battleground Texas,” officially launched Tuesday with the goal of seizing shifting demographics to make the state eventually [...]
We could do something to make voting easier if we wanted to
With all the negative news about voting rights in the news these days – voter ID, electoral college gerrymandering, challenges to the Voting Rights Act – it’s good to remember that positive change is still possible. On two major occasions—during his election-night speech and second inaugural address—President Obama has highlighted the need for election reform. [...]
Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008
Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 results resembled the 2012 results in each district. I went by vote percentages as reported [...]
Yet another report saying we should expand Medicaid in Texas
It’s the fiscally responsible thing to do, in addition to being the morally correct thing to do. Expanding Medicaid is a “smart, affordable and fair” decision for Texas, according to a report issued by Billy Hamilton, a non-partisan consultant commissioned by Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas and Texas Impact, a statewide interfaith network. “If [...]
Is there a way forward on expanding Medicaid in Texas?
It’s a little hard to know what to make of this. The Affordable Care Act is the federal law that Texas Republicans love to hate, but one top lawmaker says expanding health care for the working poor could happen if federal authorities are willing to strike a deal. Republican Sen. Jane Nelson, chair of the [...]
Friday random ten: Inauguration 2
It’s Inauguration 2 Weekend for President Obama. Here are a few suggested songs for the party playlist. 1. Back Where You Started – Tina Turner 2. Starting All Over Again – Mel & Tim 3. Serious Business – John Mellencamp 4. Work To Do – The Isley Brothers 5. Still Crazy After All These Years [...]
Julian 2016?
I have five things to say about this. Texas Democratic powerbrokers are quietly promoting rising star Julian Castro as a consensus building leader with bipartisan support as they position the charismatic San Antonio mayor for the party’s 2016 presidential ticket. In Julian Castro, who vaulted into the American spotlight at the Democratic National Convention last [...]
Remake the Fifth Circuit!
Yes, please. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is widely viewed as one of the nation’s most conservative federal appellate courts, but President Barack Obama could get a chance to change that perception in his second term. Ten of the 15 active judges serving on the New Orleans-based court were nominated by Republican presidents. [...]
Horse’s head sold separately
Shorter John Cornyn: “Unless President Obama gives us Republicans everything we want – and we insist that he be the one to come up with the list of things that we want, so we can attack him for it in the next campaign – we are going to destroy the global economy, because it’s the [...]
All or nothing on Medicaid expansion
Partial Medicaid expansion, in whatever the form, will not be an option. “Consistent with the law, there is not an option for enhanced match for a partial or phased in Medicaid expansion,” acting Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator Marilyn Tavenner told reporters on a call Monday. The administration’s reasoning goes like this: The [...]
How the so-called “fiscal cliff” might affect Texas
There is of course a very simple way to avoid this. If President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans cannot avoid tripping off the edge of the so-called fiscal cliff, then the Texas budget could be more than $1 billion short over the next two years. But fewer federal dollars flowing through the state budget would [...]
What’s $2 billion among friends?
Easy come, easy go, am I right? If Texas leaders turn down the federal health law’s Medicaid expansion, they will reject a $2 billion annual revenue stream for the state’s hospitals, according to Dan Mendelson, CEO and founder of Avalere Health, a strategic advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Speaking at about 2 minutes, 5 [...]
Precinct analysis: A closer look at the Latino districts
Here’s a more in-depth look at the Latino districts in Harris County. I’m particularly interested in the question of how President Obama did in comparison to the other Dems on the ballot, since as we know he lagged behind them in 2008, but we’ll see what else the data tells us. CD29 Votes Pct ======================== [...]
Getting out the vote in Bexar County
Stace pointed me to this Express News story about the Bexar County Democratic Party’s ground game for the November election. Many factors influence the outcome of an election, and precise analysis is not always available. But putting $600,000 into a get-out-the-vote effort can’t hurt. Bexar County Democrats’ big victories in this month’s election surprised many [...]
This is what a full-scale Latino outreach program looks like
This is what I’m talking about. President Barack Obama’s campaign team realized even before Romney was nominated that the growing Latino vote was the key to a second Obama term. And they acted to sew it up with an early, sweeping and persistent effort. It paid off, and it’s not clear that Romney even saw [...]
Precinct analysis: The range of possibility
Here’s a look at selected districts in Harris County that shows the range of votes and vote percentages achieved by Democratic candidates. I’ve thrown in the Obama and Sam Houston results from 2008 for each to provide a comparison between how the district was predicted to perform and how it actually did perform. Without further [...]
We should expect boring Congressional races for the foreseeable future
That’s my takeaway after reading this. For Pete Sessions, election night ended with yet another resounding send-off to Washington. He won a ninth term, with 58 percent of the vote. But an analysis by The Dallas Morning News raises questions about how long the swath of Dallas and Collin counties that makes up Sessions’ 32nd [...]
Demographic change in the Panhandle
What’s happening in other parts of Texas is happening in West Texas, too. Whites no longer are the majority group in 17 counties in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region, including Potter County, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. And based on current population growth rates, in at least four other counties, including Lubbock, non-Anglos could [...]
Is immigration reform likely to happen now?
With President Obama’s victory powered in part by overwhelming support from Latino voters, and a dawning if grudging recognition from the GOP that they can’t continue to alienate this growing segment of the electorate, some kind of deal on immigration reform seems increasingly likely. I still have my doubts, however. Prominent voices in both parties [...]
Precinct analysis: City and county
If you know a little something about Excel (or in my case, OpenOffice Calc, which has the same basic functionality), it’s fairly straightforward to calculate the vote totals and percentages for various candidates in various county, state, or federal districts. These districts are well-defined, and by that I mean they contain a certain number of [...]
Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama
Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn Noriega ======================================== HD126 63.86% 36.14% 62.26% 37.74% HD127 70.57% 29.43% 67.93% 32.07% HD128 72.95% 27.05% [...]
Will health insurance exchanges be on the Lege’s agenda?
The deadline was today for states to decide what they want to do about implementing health insurance exchanges. At least eight Republican governors vowed not to implement the health-care law until after the November election. “I will make that decision number one after the election,” Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley told a local television station in [...]
Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama
So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for now is a comparison of how President Obama did in the various redrawn districts versus [...]
How Latinos voted in Texas
Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey included a national sample of 5,600 Latino voters, as well as 11 state specific samples [...]
First pass at analyzing the 2012 results
This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with comparison to 2008, is as follows: 2008 Votes Pct =========================== McCain 4,479,328 55.45% Obama 3,528,633 [...]
2012 election results
As I type this there are still a number of unsettled races in Texas, so things may change between now and tomorrow morning after we’ve all had an insufficient night’s sleep. But here’s how they stand at this time, and I will use my what I’ll be looking for post as a jumping off point. [...]
Final EV totals
Early voting was up from 2008, but not quite as much as the initial hype might have led to you think. By the time early voting in Texas ended Friday night, an estimated two-thirds of those expected to cast a ballot in Harris County had already done so. That trend is mirrored around the country [...]
Obama leads in poll of Harris County
More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running for offices that are down the ballot. The poll shows the president leading in Harris [...]
Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?
Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued [...]
UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39
Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the [...]