Tag Archives: Election 2018

Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: County executive offices

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County races appear towards the bottom of the ballot, after all of the federal and state races. With the exception of … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: The better statewide races

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer As noted before, Greg Abbott got 490K votes in Harris County, far less than the 559K he received in 2018 running against Lupe Valdez. Of the other six races … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Hidalgo versus Mealer

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus Abbott

All right, I have the full landscape data for Harris County and the November 2022 election, and I’ll be doing my usual thing with it. There’s a lot of data and a lot of ways to explore it, some of … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading

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Yes, we’re talking about Texas Senate 2024

Gromer Jeffers points out that Ted Cruz may run for both President and re-election to the Senate in 2024, which he can do under the law that was passed to allow LBJ to run for Vice President in 1960 (and … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Specifically, my precincts

I’m still waiting for the full landscape canvass data from Harris County – things are a bit up in the air right now because of the lawsuit filed by the local GOP, but I expect to get that data soon, … Continue reading

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SCOTx hears firefighter pay parity arguments

Lots at stake here. More than four years after Houston voters approved a measure that would grant firefighters equal pay with police officers, the legal battle to decide the referendum’s fate landed Tuesday in the hands of the Supreme Court of Texas. The … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading

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We do need to find someone to run against Ted Cruz

I don’t know who that ought to be yet, but surely someone is out there. Ted Cruz said on Saturday that he would seek a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2024, though he also did not rule out … Continue reading

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What to expect when you’re expecting a (larger) Democratic majority

I have three things to say about this. Despite narrowly winning reelection against bruising campaigns by well-funded challengers, the Democratic majority on Commissioners Court has made clear it intends to continue its progressive remake of Harris County. Though neither County … Continue reading

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On comparing counties from 2018 to 2022

I started with this. Voters in counties across Texas chose GOP leaders over Democrats at a higher rate than they did four years ago, a Dallas Morning News analysis shows. The findings, based on data as of noon on Wednesday, … Continue reading

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A brief look at the judicial races

From a few days ago: The advertisements rolled out with weeks to go until the November election. In one TV spot, the sister of Martha Medina urged Harris County voters in Spanish and another in English to honor her sister, … Continue reading

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Christopher Busby: The Case for Texas Democratic Optimism

(Note: The following is a guest post that was submitted to me. I occasionally solicit guest posts, and also occasionally accept them from people I trust.) The election came and went with a similar story. Texas Democrats just started to … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading

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In which Harris County Republicans look for moral victories

Believe me, as a Texas Democrat and a longtime fan of the Rice Owls, I know what it looks like to search for moral victories in the face of defeat. It looks like this. Harris County Republicans on Tuesday posted … Continue reading

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Judge Hidalgo celebrates her win

Winning is sweet. Victory laps are even sweeter. Fresh off a narrow reelection that was anything but assured, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo on Wednesday held a news conference to praise colleagues, thank supporters and call out some members of … Continue reading

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Some opening thoughts on the 2022 election

Done in the traditional bullet-point style. There may or may not be a part 2 to this, depending on the usual factors. – Obviously the overall result was disappointing. It was harder to see a Beto victory this year from … Continue reading

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Fewer mail ballots rejected in November

Good, but still could be better. Local election officials in Texas are reporting a drop in the percentage of mail ballots that have so far been flagged for rejection during the ongoing midterm elections, as compared with a spike earlier … Continue reading

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Final November 2022 EV totals: Catching up

First, some slightly outdated numbers from the Chron. Fewer Harris County voters cast ballots during this year’s early voting period than in the 2020 and 2018 elections, according to unofficial voter counts released after polls closed on Friday night. From … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Ten EV totals: Two to go

This is the data from Wednesday. It came in a little later than usual. Since yesterday was the vote-till-10PM day, I thought I’d provide this update now, and will give the final EV totals on Sunday. Final EV totals from … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Nine EV Totals: Still lagging

Nine days down, three to go: Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 are here. The Day Nine totals for 2022 are here. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2014 60,400 191,432 251,832 2018 80,279 557,264 637,543 2022 … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Seven EV totals: On to Week 2

Fresh from Sunday night: Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 are here. The Day Seven totals for 2022 are here. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2014 57,546 137,137 194,683 2018 77,347 429,009 506,356 2022 44,163 354,100 … Continue reading

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What will Tarrant County do this year?

Hoping for a blue result at the top and at least closer races below it, but we’ll see. Eight years after voting for Gov. Greg Abbott, Angela Martinez found herself waiting in line Tuesday to snap a photo with Beto … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Five EV totals: A closer look at mail ballots

The numbers are what they are. Nearly half as many people have so far voted by mail in Harris County as in 2018 during the same period, state data show. About 31,000 voters submitted mail-in ballots by the end of … Continue reading

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We hit a new peak in voter registrations

It’s good to see, whatever it “means”. Texas now has almost 17.7 million voters — 1.9 million more than four years ago, when Gov. Greg Abbott won re-election. New voter registration totals from the Texas Division of Elections show the … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Three EV totals: A lot like Day Two

Sorry, the days are long and my mind is full and I don’t have anything interesting to say. I will at some point. For now, this is what we get. Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day Two EV totals: Just the facts

I’m just going to get into it, I don’t have anything to add to the numbers. Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 are here. The Day Two totals for 2022 are here. Year Mail Early Total … Continue reading

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November 2022 Day One EV totals: The in person experience

Here’s your Chron story about Day One of early voting. More than 60,000 registered voters Harris County decided Monday they couldn’t wait any longer to cast a ballot for their choices in the 2022 midterm election. Monday was the first … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 3: Other county races

Part One Part Two Last time we looked at judicial races, which for all of the complaints about not knowing the candidates and just going by partisan labels have produced a consistent range of outcomes over the years. Some people … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 2: Judicial races

In Part One of this series, we looked at the relationship between statewide results and Harris County results for statewide candidates. In the last three elections, statewide Democratic candidates have done on average more than nine points better in Harris … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 1: How Harris compares

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the relationship between how statewide Democratic candidates do in Harris County versus how they do overall, and what that might tell us about the state of play in Harris County. Since I started … Continue reading

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