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Posts Tagged ‘Gary Johnson’

Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 26,881 106,334 20.18% 79.82% CD10 78,602 38,896 66.90% 33.10% CD18 47,408 154,503 23.48% 76.52% CD29 […]

A theory about third parties

Before I get to that theory, have you ever wondered about the people who vote straight ticket Libertarian or Green in Harris County? I got to wondering about them, because that’s the sort of thing that I think about at times like this. Here are the total numbers of such people, grouped by Presidential and […]

Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump in Harris County despite trailing nationally. Clinton’s commanding victory here is […]

CBS/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43

Texas is being tracked as a battleground state. I can’t even believe I just typed that. Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, while in Texas – a state that has voted Republican by wide margins in recent years – Trump leads by a mere three points. […] In 2012 Republicans […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

UH Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38

Damn! Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has one of his slimmest leads yet over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Texas, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll among registered voters. Trump’s support falls within the survey’s margin of error, which is plus- or minus 3 percent, meaning the race is a statistical […]

The Trump dilemma

I’d almost feel pity for them, if they hadn’t brought this on themselves. Leading GOP elected officials — including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — condemned the words but continued to back their candidate, and pro-Trump grassroots forces appeared set in their support for the […]

UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 34

I have many thoughts about this. Between September 1 and September 20, 2016, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted a telephone survey of 550 Harris County registered voters as part of a larger Hobby School study on voter participation and engagement under the direction of Mark P. Jones, Renée Cross, and […]

ECPS: Trump 42, Clinton 36

Another state poll result to add to the list. A new Emerson College poll in Texas, which has long been a Republican stronghold, shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by only 6 points (42% to 36%), with 10% of respondents voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 6% for the Green Party’s Jill Stein and 6% undecided. […]

Evan McMullin to sue for ballot access in Texas

You know, that guy who recently turned up as the latest NeverTrump dreamboat? He wants on the ballot in Texas. Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin, an ex-CIA officer and congressional policy wonk who launched his campaign last week to offer “Never Trump” Republicans a conservative option, faces a steep political challenge gaining enough support to […]

PPP: Trump 44, Clinton 38

We knew this poll was coming, and it confirms what we have been seeing elsewhere. PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, […]

Three polling-related observations

This story is about the tough spot that Donald Trump is putting professional Latino Republicans in. I have no sympathy for any of them, of course, but what caught my eye in this article was this little nugget: “I’m not on the anti-Trump movement like some of my colleagues who I talk to every day, […]

Our first general election poll of Texas

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the […]

Precinct analysis: Third parties revisited

Politico has a question. Is Austin’s Travis County the nation’s Libertarian Party stronghold? The co-founders of a Libertarian political action committee based there make that case, arguing that the Texas locale is the “most Libertarian large county in America.” Wes Benedict and Arthur DiBianca of Libertarian Booster PAC note that 31 Libertarian candidates were on […]

The third parties

While I work my way through the precinct data in Harris County, we can keep looking at the county data for Texas from last week’s election. Here are the top and bottom ten counties by percentage of the vote for Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson: County Johnson % County Johnson % ============================================== Travis 2.72% Throckmorton […]

Courting the Ron Paul voters

Good luck with that. Libertarian presidential candidate and would-be spoiler Gary Johnson smoked out new campaign cash here this week. But his hopes are just a pipe dream unless he wins over Republican voters loyal to never-say-quit candidate Ron Paul. “Hundreds” of Republicans have promised Johnson they will switch his way if the Republican National […]