Tag Archives: HD148

Precinct analysis: Looking back at the 2012 landscape

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 We’ve had our first look at the way the new State House districts performed, and while we can expect the 2024 election to be a little different, it’s clear at this time that there aren’t many … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House 2022

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: It’s Beto, and very much not Abbott

The Chron endorses Beto O’Rourke for Governor by taking Greg Abbott to the woodshed. Not many years ago, a newly elected Texas governor told cheering supporters, “You voted for hope over fear, for unity over division, for the majesty of … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: The new State House map

Like it or not, we have new State House districts. We may as well acquaint ourselves with them. The coverage we’ve had so far has focused on the 2020 election numbers to say whether a district will be red or … Continue reading

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House approves its map

We’re getting close to the finish line. The Texas House on Wednesday approved proposed political boundaries for the lower chamber’s 150 districts that aim to fortify Republicans’ strength in the state House for the next decade. House Bill 1, authored … Continue reading

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The proposed State House map is out

The last of the bunch. Texas House members on Thursday released the first proposal for a new map redrawing the chamber’s 150-member districts. The initial draft would both increase Republicans’ strength across the state and the number of districts in … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House district changes by demography

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: County Attorney 2020 and 2016

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney The office of County Attorney gets less attention than … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: District Attorney 2020 and 2016

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities We move on now to the county executive office races for … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State Rep districts

Introduction Congressional districts We move now to State Rep districts, which is my usual currency since they provide complete coverage of the county with no partial pieces. You can also get a much more nuanced view of how things have … Continue reading

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A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading

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2020 primary runoff results: SBOE, Senate, House

Again, bullet points. Get used to it. SBOE6 Dem: Michelle Palmer had a 65-35 lead after early voting, and that was pretty much all there was to it. SBOE5 GOP: It’s much more boring and sedate, but the Republican candidate … Continue reading

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Early voting for primary runoffs starts tomorrow

Remember the runoffs? It’s time we settle who our nominees are. Who can vote in the runoffs? Texas has open primaries, meaning you don’t have to be a registered member of either party to cast a ballot in a primary … Continue reading

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Runoff reminder: State House

Previously: Statewide, Congress, SBOE and State Senate. There are seven Democratic primary runoffs for State House districts. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got. HD26 Located in Fort Bend County, HD26 is an open seat now held by Rep. … Continue reading

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More runoff debates

In case you had not seen this, as I myself had not before Sunday. Watch Democratic Candidate Debates Here! Every Tuesday and Thursday in May, join us for our debate series: Debate Schedule: Tuesday, May 5 – Harris County Precinct … Continue reading

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading

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Runoff roundup

Here, as best as I can determine, are the runoffs of interest for May: US Senate – MJ Hegar versus Royce West CD02 – Sima Ladjevardian versus Elisa Cardnell CD03 – Lulu Seikaly versus Sean McCaffity CD10 – Mike Siegel … Continue reading

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2020 primary results: State races

I’m going to direct you to the Texas Tribune results page, which combines both parties’ results and is a couple orders of magnitude less sucky than the revamped SOS election night results pages. Good Lord, whoever designed that “upgrade” from … Continue reading

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The interviews I didn’t do

As was the case with the 2019 Houston elections, there were too many candidates and too many races (and in this case, too little time as well) to do a full slate of interviews. I did what I could, and … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Some State Reps

The Chron made seven endorsements in contested Democratic State Rep primaries on Thursday, plus two in contested Republican State Rep primaries. This must be Part One, because there are multiple races left for them to do. I’ll get to that … Continue reading

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Runoff results: Eastman wins, Markowitz loses

I’m posting this before all the votes are in, but the results are not in doubt. Anna Eastman was leading Luis La Rotta by a 67-33 margin in HD148 after 26 of 37 vote centers were in. See here for … Continue reading

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January 2020 campaign finance reports: State House, part 1

I’m going to take a two-part look at the finance reports in State House districts. Part One will be from Harris County, looking at both contested primaries and contested November races. Part Two will focus on races in the counties … Continue reading

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Early voting for the legislative special election runoffs starts Tuesday

From the inbox: Early Voting for the January 28, 2020 Special Runoff Election for State Representative District 148 begins Tuesday, January 21 and ends Friday, January 24. During the four-day Early Voting period, five locations will be available to more … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2019 HD148 special election

I started this post while doing other precinct analysis stuff. Didn’t finish it with the others, but now that the legislative special election runoffs are next up on the calendar, I thought I’d finish it off. First, here’s how the … Continue reading

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HD28 poll: Markowitz 42, Gates 42

From the inbox: With the crowded field now narrowed to two, a new internal poll shows Dr. Eliz Markowitz (D) in a dead heat — 42 to 42 —with her Republican challenger, perennial candidate Gary Gates, in the race to … Continue reading

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After-deadline filing review: Houston area

There’s a lot to digest following Monday’s filing deadline, and as I’ve said I’m going to take some time and go over it in as much obsessive detail as you’ve probably come to expect from me. As a reminder, the … Continue reading

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All have filed who are going to file

Barring any late challenges, disqualifications, or lawsuits, what we have now is our lineup for the March primary. Most of what there is to say was covered in yesterday’s post, but here are the highlights and there is some big … Continue reading

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Filing update: Focus on Harris County

One more look at who has and hasn’t yet filed for stuff as we head into the final weekend for filing. But first, this message: Hi y’all, as we approach the filing deadline in Texas, this is a reminder that … Continue reading

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It could be March before District B gets to vote in their runoff

And honestly, by the same calculations, it could go later than that. The Houston City Council District B runoff could be delayed until March if a lawsuit contesting last month’s election result is not resolved by Monday, the Harris County … Continue reading

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Filing report update

We’re a week out from the official filing deadline for the 2020 primaries. There’s still a lot of known candidates who haven’t filed yet, but I expect there will be a mad flurry of activity this week, as is usually … Continue reading

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Early voting for the 2019 runoffs begins tomorrow

From the inbox: Early Voting for the December 14 Joint Runoff Election begins Wednesday, November 27, halts for Thanksgiving break, and resumes December 2-10. The polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., except Sunday, December 8, when … Continue reading

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