Tag Archives: Hillary Clinton

Don’t expect any surprises in the judicial races

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s a simple reason why the Democratic candidates and incumbents are expected to win all the judicial races in Harris County, as they did in 2016 and 2018. I’ll tell you why in a minute, but see if you can … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD03, CD06, CD25, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, Lulu Seikaly, Mitt Romney, polls, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, Van Taylor | Comments Off

CD25: Williams 45, Oliver 43

Posted on September 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Congressional polls, they keep coming. Progressive Democratic candidate Julie Oliver is in a close race with her GOP incumbent opponent Rep. Roger Williams, a new internal poll finds. The poll of 400 likely voters by EMC Research shows Oliver … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD25, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, polls, Roger Williams, Texas | 2 Comments

CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD21, CD31, Chip Roy, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Joe Kopser, John Carter, John Cornyn, Libertarian Party, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Wendy Davis, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, redistricting, Steve Radack, Texas, Tom Ramsey, voter registration | 1 Comment

PPP/Giffords: Trump 48, Biden 47

Posted on September 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Evan Smith: New @ppppolls poll in Texas: @realDonaldTrump 48 @joebiden 47 @JohnCornyn 44 @mjhegar 40 https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf #txlege #txsen #tx2020 — EvanSmith (@evanasmith) 3:18 PM – 08 September 2020 I could not find a news story, press release, or even … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Gabrielle Giffords, gun control, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | Comments Off

Poll: Michael Moore claims large lead in Commissioners Court race

Posted on September 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Keir Murray: Like Dallas County did over a decade ago, Harris County Commissioners Court poised to flip from 4-1 Republican to 4-1 Democrat in just two election cycles. @mmooretx strongly positioned to win Pct. 3. Trump trailing by 14 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, Donald Trump, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Kim Ogg, Michael Moore, polls, precinct analysis, Texas, Tom Ramsey | 2 Comments

A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 4 Comments

Now we’re getting favorable State House polls

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A recent poll of Texas House District 126, conducted for Democratic challenger Natali Hurtado’s campaign shows her essentially tied with Republican incumbent Sam Harless. The poll of 401 likely voters, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showed Hurtado … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Brandy Chambers, Celina Montoya, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, HD108, HD112, HD121, HD126, HD134, Hillary Clinton, Joanna Cattanach, Joe Biden, Morgan Meyer, Natali Hurtado, polls, Sam Harless, Sarah Davis, Steve Allison, Texas, The Lege | 4 Comments

Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | 4 Comments

Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

Posted on July 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Candace Valenzuela, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Ortiz Jones, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, Lizzie FLetcher, Lulu Seikaly, Mike Siegel, polls, President, redistricting, Senate, Sima Ladjevardian, Sri Kulkarni, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, Wendy Davis | 7 Comments

The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 1992, Election 1996, Election 2000, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Green Party, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Libertarian Party, polls, President, Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Texas, write-in candidate | 4 Comments

Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on June 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Royce West, runoff, Senate, Texas | 14 Comments

PPP: Trump 48, Biden 48

Posted on June 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You want polls, we got polls. In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, polls, President, Texas | 3 Comments

Democracy Toolbox (PPP): Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on April 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A new Texas poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden up by one percentage point over President Donald Trump and also provides insights into Texans’ concerns about voting during the COVID-19 outbreak. The poll was commissioned by … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, polls, President, Texas | 19 Comments

UT/Trib: Trump 49, Biden 44

Posted on April 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Our first post-primary poll. Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by five points in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. In a Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Governor, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, polls, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Wendy Davis | 17 Comments

What is “safe”?

Posted on February 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Saw this on Twitter, and it got me thinking: For those upset about critique of establishment politics: There are D reps in SAFE blue seats who side w/ the NRA, are anti-LGBT+, and yet are protected because they advance the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD28, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Henry Cuellar, Hillary Clinton, Jessica Cisneros, Kirk Watson, precinct analysis, President, SD14, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

Looking ahead in CD07

Posted on January 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This story is primarily about the Republican primary in CD07. I don’t care about that race or those candidates, but there’s some good stuff at the end that I wanted to comment on. Since she’s taken office, some Houston Republicans … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD22, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Jason Westin, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, Texas | 7 Comments

After-deadline filing review: The Lege

Posted on December 20, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Now we come to the State House, which is where most of the action will be in 2020. In 2018, much of the energy and focus was on Congressional races, to the point where some hand-wringing articles were written about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Aimee Garza Lopez, Alisa Simmons, Angela Brewer, Anthony Lo, Becca DeFelice, Bell County, Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Bill Zedler, Brazos County, Candy Noble, Celina Montoya, Claire Barnett, Collin County, Craig Goldman, Dallas County, Dan Willis, Democratic primary, Denton County, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Beck, Eric Holguin, HD106, HD108, HD121, HD122, HD14, HD149, HD32, HD54, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD84, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, Hillary Clinton, Hubert Vo, Janet Dudding, Jeff Leach, Jeff Whitfield, Jennifer Skidonenko, Joanna Cattanach, Jodie Laubenberg, Joe Drago, Joe Straus, John Frullo, John Gibson, Jonathan Cocks, Jonathan Stickland, Lampasas County, Likeithia Williams, Lorenzo Sanchez, Lubbock, Lydia Bean, Lyle Larson, Matt Krause, Matt Shaheen, Morgan Meyer, Nueces County, Raza Rahman, Rocio Hernandez, Sharon Hirsch, Shawn Terry, Steve Allison, Steve Riddell, Sugar Ray Ash, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, Todd Hunter, Tom Adair, Tom Ervin, Tony Tinderholt | 5 Comments

News flash: Republicans still like Trump

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I’m as shocked as you are. As in any sports bar in Texas when the Dallas Cowboys are playing on Monday night, most of the TVs at a British pub in northwest San Antonio were tuned to the … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Bexar County, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Engage Texas, Hillary Clinton, President, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 4 Comments

The evolving CD31 candidate landscape

Posted on November 11, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We have a lot of Democratic candidates raising 2018-type money in the big, targeted Republican-held Congressional districts. Some have clear frontrunners, at least based on money raised – Wendy Davis in CD21, Sri Kulkarni in CD22, Gina Ortiz Jones in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD31, Christine Eady Mann, Congress, Dan Jangigian, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Hanke, Hillary Clinton, John Carter, MJ Hegar, Murray Holcomb, Tammy Young, Texas | 2 Comments

The Harris County GOP thinks it can come back in 2020

Posted on September 10, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

They’re so adorable. Once a rock of Republican politics in Texas, Harris County has become nothing short of a nightmare for the GOP over the last four years as Hillary Clinton and Beto O’Rourke carried the county and Democrats dominated … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, George Bush, Harris County, HCDP, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, judicial races, Paul Simpson, President, Republican Party, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout | 6 Comments

Yet another story about suburbs shifting away from Republicans

Posted on August 31, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Collect the whole set! Texas is currently experiencing two trends that are favorable to Democrats: increasing urbanization, and big demographic shifts. The Texas Tribune recently reported that Hispanics are expected to become the largest demographic group in the state by 2022, with … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Justin Nelson, Lupe Valdez, Mitt Romney, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration | Comments Off

Once again with GOP anxiety

Posted on August 17, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I recommend Xanax. Or, you know, marijuana. I’ve heard that’s good for anxiety. Republicans have long idealized Texas as a deep-red frontier state, home to rural conservatives who love President Donald Trump. But political turbulence in the sprawling suburbs and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Census, Congress, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, President, Republican Party, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Will Hurd | Comments Off

You want to be President, you’ve got to come to Houston

Posted on July 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

And so they are. No Democratic candidate for president has won Texas in over 40 years, and yet the flow of Democratic contenders coming through the state, and Houston specifically, has been unusually strong in 2019. Just since March, 14 … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Democratic primary, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, President, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

The battle for the Lege is gonna be lit

Posted on June 24, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Fasten your seat belts. While the Texas Senate appears safe for Republicans, Clinton’s comments underscored the emphasis that some Democrats — both in Texas and outside it — are already putting on the fight for the majority in the state … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Akilah Bacy, Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Dennis Bonnen, DLCC, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Markowitz, Forward Majority, HD114, HD126, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, HD26, HD29, HD32, HD45, HD52, HD65, Hillary Clinton, Josh Wallenstein, Kelly Hancock, National Democratic Redistricting Committee, redistricting, Ruby Powers, Sarah DeMerchant, SD19, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Checking in on the national political atmosphere

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox, via G. Elliott Morris’ weekly email blast: Are Democrats doing as well as they were in 2017-2018? The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”, but that’s what special elections and the generic ballot are for. These numbers … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, polls, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 SBOE

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 State Board of Education positions, currently divided 10 GOP to 5 Dem. They’re bigger than State Senate and Congressional districts but no one raises any money for them so they’re basically decided by partisan turnout. As with … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Bell County, Beto O'Rourke, Debby Kerner, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Palmer, precinct analysis, redistricting, SBOE, Texas, Travis County, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Bill Zedler, Brad Buckley, Craig Eiland, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, GD31, Greg Abbott, HD102, HD105, HD106, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD117, HD121, HD122, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD14, HD23, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD32, HD34, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD54, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD74, HD84, HD85, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, Hillary Clinton, Jimmie Don Aycock, JM Lozano, Joe Straus, Jonathan Stickland, Matt Krause, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Todd Hunter | 11 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Angela Paxton, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Charles Schwertner, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Joan Huffman, Justin Nelson, Lupe Valdez, Mark Phariss, Mike Collier, Pete Flores, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, SD02, SD05, SD07, SD08, SD09, SD10, SD11, SD12, SD16, SD17, SD19, SD25, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only. In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Mitt Romney, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 22 Comments

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend

Posted on January 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened. Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike% ====================================================== HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Brian Middleton, Commissioners Court, County Judge, District Attorney, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Fort Bend County, Governor, HD26, HD27, HD28, HD85, Hillary Clinton, Justin Nelson, Kim Olson, KP George, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Senate, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Rep. Joe Pickett to resign

Posted on December 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We will now need two special House elections to get to full membership. State Rep. Joe Pickett of El Paso will leave his post effective Jan. 4. Pickett, a Democrat, made the announcement Saturday morning that he will step down … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2019, That's our Lege | Tagged Carol Alvarado, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2019, HD145, HD79, Hillary Clinton, Joe Pickett, SD06, SD19, Senate, special election, Texas, The Lege, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

The changing tides in Central Texas

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Statesman: Six Democrats came within 5 points or fewer in six Texas races, including three districts in Central Texas where Republicans traditionally win easily. Democrats now hold 13 of 36 Texas congressional seats. “This is about persistence. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD10, CD21, CD25, CD31, Congress, demography, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, I-35, Joe Kopser, John Cornyn, Julie Oliver, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 1 Comment

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