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Posts Tagged ‘John McCain’

What the future may hold for Wendy Davis

Patricia Kilday Hart has her take on the Wendy Davis phenomenon, including the reaction of some Republicans to it. For both proponents and opponents of SB 5, the legislation that would have banned abortions past 20 weeks of pregnancy and required costly upgrades to abortion facilities, one point was irrefutable: The filibuster created a new […]

Taking back the Texas Senate

Colin Strother says the Democrats should not overlook opportunities to make gains in the upper chamber of the Legislature. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats need a miracle to pick up any single seat, much less turn the chamber Blue. The numbers show this reaction is based more on assumptions rather than any empirical evidence. […]

Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 results resembled the 2012 results in each district. I went by vote percentages as reported […]

Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for now is a comparison of how President Obama did in the various redrawn districts versus […]

First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with comparison to 2008, is as follows: 2008 Votes Pct =========================== McCain 4,479,328 55.45% Obama 3,528,633 […]

UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the […]

Early voting, one week in

We have completed one full week of early voting, and through Sunday a total of 362,827 people had voted in person, with an additional 53,131 ballot being cast by mail, for a grand total of 415,958. The updated spreadsheet is here for your perusal. For comparison, there were 314,252 in person ballots cast through Sunday, […]

YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely voters from the Lone Star state (recontacted from an initial September poll). In the race […]

Mail ballots

Campos has been tracking mail ballot requests to the Harris County Clerk. Here is what the County put out yesterday evening: As of this evening we have approved 71,101 applications and sent out 67,376 ballots. We have received 19,468 voted ballots returned. 25,848 have been generated by the GOP and 20,866 by Dems. In an […]

New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama 55-40, according to a poll from Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which carries out surveys […]

“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, […]

A look at HD136

The Statesman takes a look at the new State Rep. district in Williamson County. All county and state elected officeholders from Williamson County are Republicans. The party has long dominated the area. But Democrats are eyeing the new district as a potential weak spot in the Republican stronghold, counting it among a handful of districts […]

Sadler’s challenge

Democratic Senate hopeful Paul Sadler is a strong candidate with limited resources. Where have I heard that before? In Victoria on a recent Saturday afternoon, the candidate for the U.S. Senate had the crowd on its feet, the shouts and applause washing over the meeting room like waves on the nearby Gulf. As he wrapped […]

The Trib’s strange samples

Here’s the UT/Texas Trib poll result the Trib should have reported: Q19. If the 2012 general election for U.S. president were held today and Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, would you vote for [randomize] Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, someone else, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? 1. Mitt Romney […]

Santorum surges in January UT/Trib poll

There will come a day when using the word “surge” to describe the now-frontrunning Republican Presidential candidate in Texas will get old. That day has not arrived yet. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has a commanding lead among Republican presidential candidates in Texas, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Santorum would […]

PPP: Perry takes lead on Obama in Texas

Not by that much, however. Rick Perry has an under water approval rating in Texas and he’s leading Barack Obama by a smaller margin than John McCain won the state by in 2008…but at least he is leading Obama, which is more than he could say the last time we polled the state. 45% of […]

2012 still looks like 2008 so far

The Texas Lyceum put out a series of polls this week – you can see links to them here – but it was the Thursday poll that interested me the most, as it was related to the 2012 elections. Here’s the press release: The third and final installment of the 2011 Texas Lyceum statewide poll […]

Maybe Perry for President would be good for us

When George W. Bush began being talked about as a Presidential candidate, the story line on him was that he was a well-liked, popular Governor who had bipartisan appeal and support in the state. Outgoing Democratic Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock supported him. Democratic House Speaker Pete Laney supported him. Numerous Democratic officeholders in Texas supported […]

Obama and Texas 2012

Jonathan Chait notes that recently the Obama re-election team has said it will put money into Texas, and observes that this is part of a bigger strategy. In the narrow analysis, Texas is a deeply Republican state. Obama lost it by a dozen points in 2008. It can’t possibly help him win in 2012. If […]

Saturday video break: It gets worse

Remember when being a maverick meant something? The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c

The immigration wedge issue for the GOP

I have three things to say about this story. Evangelical ministers in Texas and across the nation are splitting off from the hard right, declaring immigration reform is needed that includes a path to citizenship without first deporting millions of illegal immigrants. That aligns evangelicals with conservative Republican businessmen who want reform because they want […]

You tell ‘em, Chuck

Charles Barkley, speaking to ESPN’s Dan Patrick, talks sense about the Arizona “Show me your papers” law: DP: You’re a resident of Arizona, I’m curious if you think baseball should get involved with the immigration law. Do you like that they’re standing up for their players to say we’re concerned about this law? CB: I […]

Population and voting trends: 2004 and 2008 Presidential election

Taking a look at the voting trends in the fastest growing counties made me want to know more about this, so I broke out the spreadsheets and took a look. I’ll present the results in a three-part series, starting today with a comparison of the 2004 and 2008 Presidential election. Basically, I took the county […]

Where the votes are going

Matt Stiles looks at Census data and notes a political point. Seven Texas counties — Rockwall, Williamson, Collin, Hays, Fort Bend, Montgomery and Denton — are listed among the nation’s 30 fastest-growing areas, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released [Tuesday]. They are also Republican-voting counties, according to results in the 2008 general election. Sen. […]

From the “Will they never learn?” files

Back when I was having my Trib-based conversation with David Benzion, he mentioned a web ad that was released by the Texas GOP to attack Bill White in anticipation of his jump to the Governor’s race. That ad featured a song by The Platters. Apparently, the state GOP hasn’t gotten the message that using an […]

The Texas Trib and its polls

I’ve been so immersed in the Houston elections that I forgot to give a warm welcome to the Texas Tribune, which made its debut on Tuesday. I really like the look of the site, I like their lineup of writers, and I like what they’re aiming to do. Once their RSS feeds become available, I’ll […]

On the matter of turnout

This Star-Telegram story about turnout in the 2008 election versus turnout in the 2004 election has got some people talking. The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain sent more Texans to the polls last year, but the state still had one of the lowest turnouts in the country, according to data released by […]

Challenging Chet

Via Eye on Williamson, I see the national GOP is once again looking to try to beat Rep. Chet Edwards in CD17. There’s little question Republicans are looking to target Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), who could face yet another tough re-election in his solidly conservative Waco-based seat. The question is who his opponent will be. […]

Dallas Dems look to 2010

Never too early to be thinking about these things. “I don’t think it’s a big stretch to say we can do 57 percent [countywide] in 2010,” said Darlene Ewing, chairwoman of the Dallas County Democratic Party. Because of that comfort level, Ewing said, the county party is targeting Dallas County commissioner Precinct 4, held by […]

Pete Sessions and the Taliban

Rep. Pete Sessions in CD32 is the chair of the NRCC this cycle. He’s also…well, see for yourself. Frustrated by a lack of bipartisan outreach from House Democratic leaders, Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said today that the GOP should look to the Taliban for guidance in conveying its […]