Tag Archives: Lupe Valdez

Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading

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On comparing counties from 2018 to 2022

I started with this. Voters in counties across Texas chose GOP leaders over Democrats at a higher rate than they did four years ago, a Dallas Morning News analysis shows. The findings, based on data as of noon on Wednesday, … Continue reading

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Christopher Busby: The Case for Texas Democratic Optimism

(Note: The following is a guest post that was submitted to me. I occasionally solicit guest posts, and also occasionally accept them from people I trust.) The election came and went with a similar story. Texas Democrats just started to … Continue reading

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Some opening thoughts on the 2022 election

Done in the traditional bullet-point style. There may or may not be a part 2 to this, depending on the usual factors. – Obviously the overall result was disappointing. It was harder to see a Beto victory this year from … Continue reading

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Marist: Abbott 49, Beto 45

Another new pollster for this election. In the Texas governor’s race, Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott has a 4-point edge over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among registered voters statewide. However, Abbott’s advantage over O’Rourke doubles to 8 points among those … Continue reading

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Yeah, Greg Abbott has a ton of money

It’s the one thing he’s really good at. Gov. Greg Abbott is starting his 2022 reelection campaign with $55 million in the bank, a staggering figure even by the already high standards for which his fundraising is known. His campaign … Continue reading

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Yet another story about suburbs shifting away from Republicans

Collect the whole set! Texas is currently experiencing two trends that are favorable to Democrats: increasing urbanization, and big demographic shifts. The Texas Tribune recently reported that Hispanics are expected to become the largest demographic group in the state by 2022, with … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend

Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened. Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike% ====================================================== HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% … Continue reading

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Initial reactions: Statewide

I’m going to do a few of these “Initial reaction” posts about Tuesday’s elections as I try to make sense of all that happened. Here we go. Let me start with a number. Two numbers, actually: 4,017,851 and 48.26%. The … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Emerson College: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47

I’m just going to quit making predictions about when we’ve seen the last poll for this cycle. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) holds a 3-point lead over his Senate challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) ahead of next week’s midterm elections, … Continue reading

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UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 46

One last poll for the road. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. The poll, released Monday with just a over a week left … Continue reading

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Omnibus polling update

One last Trib poll: Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 45 percent in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Libertarian Neal Dikeman was the choice of … Continue reading

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The Beto-Abbott voters

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading

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What are your turnout scenarios?

I keep thinking about this: County Clerk Stan Stanart predicts up to a million Harris County residents could be casting ballots in a string of hotly-contested races. As you’ve heard me say many times, the Democrats’ main issue in off … Continue reading

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The Dallas County House battleground

Lot of seats in play here. [Julie] Johnson is among several Democratic candidates in Dallas hoping national and statewide talk of a blue wave will trickle down to several local state House races. A mix of Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, … Continue reading

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Differing views of likely voters

First we had this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Released Tuesday, the survey found Cruz with 54 percent support … Continue reading

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Valdez and Abbott come to terms on September debate

Good. Lupe Valdez, the Democratic candidate for governor, has agreed to debate the Republican incumbent, Greg Abbott, on Sept. 28 in Austin, ending weeks of uncertainty over whether the two would face off. Earlier this summer, Abbott announced his RSVP … Continue reading

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ECPS: Cruz 38, O’Rourke 37

Closest result yet, but it comes with a couple of caveats. A new Emerson College e-Poll finds the US Senate race neck and neck with Senator Ted Cruz at 38% and US Rep Beto O’Rourke at 37%; 4% are voting … Continue reading

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NBC News: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 45

It’s been three weeks since our last poll result. In a head-to-head match up, Cruz held a 4-point lead over O’Rourke. Forty-nine percent of respondents backed Cruz, compared to 45 percent who supported O’Rourke. Six percent of respondents remain undecided. … Continue reading

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The meta-campaign for Senate

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading

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The range of Republican anxiety

Some folks are a little scared about all this “blue wave” talk and poll numbers and what have you. As Ted Cruz took questions at a Republican women’s event [in Smithville] Saturday evening, Bastrop retiree Ronnie Ann Burt wanted to … Continue reading

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Lyceum: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 39

Good result, though the others with it could be better. A new poll released Wednesday suggests that U.S. Sen Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, are in a dead heat. The poll from Texas Lyceum shows Cruz … Continue reading

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Debating dates

We know what the best answer is. What the most likely answer is, I have no idea. The back-and-forth over when and where the two major candidates for Texas governor will debate continued Wednesday, with Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez announcing … Continue reading

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Two views of Democratic fundraising

Positive: For the first time in a generation, there is a Democrat running for Congress in every single district in the state. Most of those candidates vying to unseat Republicans will likely lose. Many are running in districts where President … Continue reading

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Debating debates

We have an agreement for a debate (mostly) between Greg Abbott and Lupe Valdez. Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott agreed Wednesday to participate in a televised statewide debate with Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez, the first in the general election runup. … Continue reading

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Gravis: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 42

Here’s a new poll of four statewide races in Texas, for which there may or may not be any news coverage. The executive summary: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 602 likely voters across Texas. … Continue reading

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UT/Trib: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36, part 2

We pick up where we left off. Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune … Continue reading

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UT/Trib: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36

Well, what do you know? Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Neal … Continue reading

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Who’s willing to tell Trump he’s all wet?

Not Greg Abbott or Dan Patrick. During a visit to Pinkerton’s Barbecue on Friday afternoon, gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez said Gov. Greg Abbott failed to forcefully refute the president, who said on Wednesday that some Texans “went out in their … Continue reading

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 39

Quinnipiac giveth, Quinnipiac taketh away. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has some breathing space from U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, according to a new poll released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday. In the banner statewide race in the state, the new survey … Continue reading

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Lupe and Beto

Beto O’Rourke has a year-old, well-funded campaign for US Senate. Lupe Valdez doesn’t have anything like those advantages in her campaign for Governor. Will her lower profile effort have a negative effect on his higher profile one? The race for … Continue reading

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