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Posts Tagged ‘Mitt Romney’

PAC Plus polls Latinos in Texas

BOR reported last week on a poll of Texas Latinos conducted by PAC Plus. They zeroed in on the questions that had to do with Latinos’ impressions of Republicans and Democrats. For the survey PAC+ interviewed 2,685 randomly selected registered Hispanic voters in Texas counties with the highest number of Latino eligible voters: Bexar, Dallas, [...]

Not just Austin, dammit

What Flavia Isabel says: The single purpose of this post is to eradicate the phrase “Oh yeah, Austin is a blue dot in a sea of red” from the vocabulary of anybody who cares about turning Texas blue. I am so incredibly sick and tired of hearing this refrain. It’s part of the Austin mythology. [...]

Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 results resembled the 2012 results in each district. I went by vote percentages as reported [...]

Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn Noriega ======================================== HD126 63.86% 36.14% 62.26% 37.74% HD127 70.57% 29.43% 67.93% 32.07% HD128 72.95% 27.05% [...]

Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for now is a comparison of how President Obama did in the various redrawn districts versus [...]

How Latinos voted in Texas

Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey included a national sample of 5,600 Latino voters, as well as 11 state specific samples [...]

First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with comparison to 2008, is as follows: 2008 Votes Pct =========================== McCain 4,479,328 55.45% Obama 3,528,633 [...]

Obama leads in poll of Harris County

More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running for offices that are down the ballot. The poll shows the president leading in Harris [...]

Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued [...]

UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the [...]

Ticket splitters

For better or worse, we live in a polarized world. Often, knowing a candidate’s political party tells you most of what you need to know in a general election. But definitely not always, and this year in particular there are plenty of examples of candidates who aren’t worthy of the support of their partisan brethren [...]

Endorsement watch: For Wendy Davis

Very nice. Two state legislators are running to represent a demographically changing senatorial District 10: the incumbent, Democrat Sen. Wendy Davis, and Republican state Rep. Mark Shelton. Davis, who defeated an entrenched incumbent four years ago, did not take long to make her mark on the Senate, enhancing the populist image she honed as a [...]

Presidential campaign contributions in Texas

I suspect there’s not much in this story that will surprise you. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign raised nearly twice as much money in the greater Houston area than that of President Barack Obama – most of it from wealthier upscale communities – but more people overall contributed to the president’s re-election, according to a [...]

YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely voters from the Lone Star state (recontacted from an initial September poll). In the race [...]

Lyceum poll: Romney 58, Obama 39

This one is just nuts. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, with 58 percent to the incumbent’s 39 percent, according to a new Texas Lyceum Poll. The same survey has Republican Ted Cruz leading Democrat Paul Sadler 50 percent to 24 percent in the [...]

How about those judicial races?

The Chron takes a look downballot. Democratic judges who surprised Harris County in a 2008 rout because of strong turnout for Barack Obama are bracing for a tough fight in November after seeing the GOP, which had a clean sweep in 2010, continue to bolster its position statewide. In the county’s 23 contested state district [...]

YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41

Another new poll of Texas, from YouGov: Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney holds a solid, eleven-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 52% Romney to 41% Obama, in a poll of 1,254 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov. In the race for Senate, Republican Ted Cruz holds a 50%-31% over Democratic candidate Paul [...]

What that Wilson Perkins poll really tells us

There’s something about that poll of Texas last week that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. I only mentioned it in passing myself, so I want to go back and spend a little more time on it. As I said at the time, I thought the poll’s racial distribution – 60% Anglo, 26% Latino, [...]

New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama 55-40, according to a poll from Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which carries out surveys [...]

“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, [...]

Fifth Circuit strikes again

Dammit. A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that Texas did not act unconstitutionally when it moved to expel Planned Parenthood from a health and contraceptive care program for low-income women. The ruling overturned a preliminary injunction, issued in April by U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel of Austin, that banned Texas from enforcing rules designed to [...]

Romney-Ryan

Game on. You’ve probably read all you can stand to read about this by now since it was everywhere on the internets yesterday, but do read Charlie Pierce if you haven’t already – he’s the best cure for mainstream media stuffiness – and Michael Grunwald, who seems to have escaped the reality distortion field in [...]

Friday random ten: Let the games begin!

It’s the Summer Olympic Games! Pomp! Circumstance! Tradition! Overwrought personal stories! Athletic orgies! Ten songs about games! 1. Fool’s Game – Bonnie Raitt 2. The Name of The Game – from “Mamma Mia!” 3. Play The Game – Queen 4. Wicked Game – The Model 5. Cat’s Game – Greg Camp 6. Crazy Game – [...]

From the “If pigs had wings” department

It’s never a bad time to construct a counterfactual. What if Rick Perry had never said, “Oops”? What if he could have, for Christ’s sake, just remembered that he had wanted to gut the Department of Energy? What if he hadn’t climbed into a tan coat and Brett Favre jeans and released that abominable Youtube [...]

Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County

Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at the Presidential and Senate results for each of the State Rep districts. Here are the [...]

Precinct analysis: The “not Obama” vote, such as it was

I now have my hands on a draft canvass for the Democratic primary in Harris County, and you know what that means: Precinct data! I’ll be doing various analyses over the week so we can get a better idea of just what happened in this election. Let’s start with the Presidential race, such as it [...]

GOP results, statewide

Full, though not necessarily the most up to date, results, are here. The Trib and the Observer have good roundups as well. – Mitt. Yawn. He was at just under 70% statewide, with Ron Paul getting 11% and Rick Santorum 8%. You have to wonder what might have been if Santorum had held on through [...]

The Trib’s strange samples

Here’s the UT/Texas Trib poll result the Trib should have reported: Q19. If the 2012 general election for U.S. president were held today and Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, would you vote for [randomize] Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, someone else, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion? 1. Mitt Romney [...]

PPP’s April poll of Texas

Here’s Public Policy Polling’s latest snapshot of Texas heading into May and the primaries. If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate…but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for [...]

So long, Santorum

That sound you hear is Texas Republicans crying in their beer. Rick Santorum’s withdrawal today from the 2012 presidential contest makes Texas Republicans, once again, all but irrelevant in their party’s nomination process. The drawn-out nature of the race had given party activists rare hope that this would be the most competitive presidential primary since [...]

Texas will be relevant to the GOP nomination circus after all

After Mitt Romney’s unimpressive showing on Tuesday, the race for the GOP Presidential nomination continues to slog on with no clear end in sight. Which is good news, I guess, if you’re a Texas Republican because it means that your vote on May 29 will matter. And polls right now are showing a tight race [...]

Endorsement watch: For the love of God, stop this thing already!

This may be the earliest Chron endorsement ever. We say: Stop the shooting. We share the view of many that the Republican Party’s most constructive course going forward is to waste little time and unite behind the candidate most likely to compete effectively against President Obama. In our view, Mitt Romney is that candidate. We [...]

Colbert > Romney

Naturally. How popular is comedian Stephen Colbert’s semi-serious Super PAC, Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow? In Texas, it’s more popular that Mitt Romney’s leading Super PAC. Federal Election Commission records examined by the Houston Chronicle indicate more Texans have donated to Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow than to the pro-Romney Restore Our Future. [...]

Santorum surges in January UT/Trib poll

There will come a day when using the word “surge” to describe the now-frontrunning Republican Presidential candidate in Texas will get old. That day has not arrived yet. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has a commanding lead among Republican presidential candidates in Texas, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Santorum would [...]