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Posts Tagged ‘Mitt Romney’

We will have exit polls this year

Good. Two years ago, a consortium of news outlets that conducts nationwide exit polls during every November election announced it was scaling back efforts in Texas and 18 other states. The move left political researchers with little data to study shifts in the Texas electorate. This year, with a high-profile gubernatorial race on the November […]

What the Trib’s pollsters miss about their own polls

Having published their poll results, Jim Henson goes back and analyzes their gubernatorial poll, pronouncing it all a big success. The partisan responses to the poll results have been similarly predictable. The Republican chorus is singing I-told-you-so, chalking up Davis’ position to the impact of the media pack reporting of her biographical fudges. The Democratic […]

Lyceum poll: Abbott over Davis, 29-21

Make of this what you will. Republican Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Wendy Davis by 8 points in a hypothetical matchup for Texas governor, but it’s a statistical dead heat among women, according to a Texas Lyceum Poll of registered voters released Wednesday. Abbott, the attorney general, leads Davis, a state senator from Fort Worth, […]

Yet another wacky poll about Latino voting in Texas

Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in. Sen. Ted Cruz lost the Hispanic vote in Texas by about 20 percentage points, but out-performed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, according to post-2012 election polling shared with the Washington Examiner. Cruz defeated Democrat Paul Sadler last November by nearly 16 percentage points on […]

NPR’s odd claim about Latino voting in Texas

NPR takes its turn with the obligatory “can Texas turn blue” story, and in doing some provides a number I had not heard before. A new group called Battleground Texas is planning to spend tens of millions of dollars trying to turn Texas blue by 2020. It is made up of Obama campaign veterans, like […]

What the future may hold for Wendy Davis

Patricia Kilday Hart has her take on the Wendy Davis phenomenon, including the reaction of some Republicans to it. For both proponents and opponents of SB 5, the legislation that would have banned abortions past 20 weeks of pregnancy and required costly upgrades to abortion facilities, one point was irrefutable: The filibuster created a new […]

The trend matters as much as the average

I would characterize this Politifact analysis as basically accurate but not particularly meaningful. Republican consultant Karl Rove thinks Georgia Republicans need to be more like their Texas counterparts. In a May 18 speech at Georgia’s GOP state convention, Rove said Republicans have “got to get outside of our comfort zone and go places Republicans are […]

Taking back the Texas Senate

Colin Strother says the Democrats should not overlook opportunities to make gains in the upper chamber of the Legislature. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats need a miracle to pick up any single seat, much less turn the chamber Blue. The numbers show this reaction is based more on assumptions rather than any empirical evidence. […]

PAC Plus polls Latinos in Texas

BOR reported last week on a poll of Texas Latinos conducted by PAC Plus. They zeroed in on the questions that had to do with Latinos’ impressions of Republicans and Democrats. For the survey PAC+ interviewed 2,685 randomly selected registered Hispanic voters in Texas counties with the highest number of Latino eligible voters: Bexar, Dallas, […]

Not just Austin, dammit

What Flavia Isabel says: The single purpose of this post is to eradicate the phrase “Oh yeah, Austin is a blue dot in a sea of red” from the vocabulary of anybody who cares about turning Texas blue. I am so incredibly sick and tired of hearing this refrain. It’s part of the Austin mythology. […]

Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 results resembled the 2012 results in each district. I went by vote percentages as reported […]

Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn Noriega ======================================== HD126 63.86% 36.14% 62.26% 37.74% HD127 70.57% 29.43% 67.93% 32.07% HD128 72.95% 27.05% […]

Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for now is a comparison of how President Obama did in the various redrawn districts versus […]

How Latinos voted in Texas

Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey included a national sample of 5,600 Latino voters, as well as 11 state specific samples […]

First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with comparison to 2008, is as follows: 2008 Votes Pct =========================== McCain 4,479,328 55.45% Obama 3,528,633 […]

Obama leads in poll of Harris County

More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running for offices that are down the ballot. The poll shows the president leading in Harris […]

Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued […]

UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the […]

Ticket splitters

For better or worse, we live in a polarized world. Often, knowing a candidate’s political party tells you most of what you need to know in a general election. But definitely not always, and this year in particular there are plenty of examples of candidates who aren’t worthy of the support of their partisan brethren […]

Endorsement watch: For Wendy Davis

Very nice. Two state legislators are running to represent a demographically changing senatorial District 10: the incumbent, Democrat Sen. Wendy Davis, and Republican state Rep. Mark Shelton. Davis, who defeated an entrenched incumbent four years ago, did not take long to make her mark on the Senate, enhancing the populist image she honed as a […]

Presidential campaign contributions in Texas

I suspect there’s not much in this story that will surprise you. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign raised nearly twice as much money in the greater Houston area than that of President Barack Obama – most of it from wealthier upscale communities – but more people overall contributed to the president’s re-election, according to a […]

YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely voters from the Lone Star state (recontacted from an initial September poll). In the race […]

Lyceum poll: Romney 58, Obama 39

This one is just nuts. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, with 58 percent to the incumbent’s 39 percent, according to a new Texas Lyceum Poll. The same survey has Republican Ted Cruz leading Democrat Paul Sadler 50 percent to 24 percent in the […]

How about those judicial races?

The Chron takes a look downballot. Democratic judges who surprised Harris County in a 2008 rout because of strong turnout for Barack Obama are bracing for a tough fight in November after seeing the GOP, which had a clean sweep in 2010, continue to bolster its position statewide. In the county’s 23 contested state district […]

YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41

Another new poll of Texas, from YouGov: Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney holds a solid, eleven-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 52% Romney to 41% Obama, in a poll of 1,254 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov. In the race for Senate, Republican Ted Cruz holds a 50%-31% over Democratic candidate Paul […]

What that Wilson Perkins poll really tells us

There’s something about that poll of Texas last week that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. I only mentioned it in passing myself, so I want to go back and spend a little more time on it. As I said at the time, I thought the poll’s racial distribution – 60% Anglo, 26% Latino, […]

New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama 55-40, according to a poll from Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which carries out surveys […]

“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, […]

Fifth Circuit strikes again

Dammit. A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that Texas did not act unconstitutionally when it moved to expel Planned Parenthood from a health and contraceptive care program for low-income women. The ruling overturned a preliminary injunction, issued in April by U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel of Austin, that banned Texas from enforcing rules designed to […]

Romney-Ryan

Game on. You’ve probably read all you can stand to read about this by now since it was everywhere on the internets yesterday, but do read Charlie Pierce if you haven’t already – he’s the best cure for mainstream media stuffiness – and Michael Grunwald, who seems to have escaped the reality distortion field in […]

Friday random ten: Let the games begin!

It’s the Summer Olympic Games! Pomp! Circumstance! Tradition! Overwrought personal stories! Athletic orgies! Ten songs about games! 1. Fool’s Game – Bonnie Raitt 2. The Name of The Game – from “Mamma Mia!” 3. Play The Game – Queen 4. Wicked Game – The Model 5. Cat’s Game – Greg Camp 6. Crazy Game – […]

From the “If pigs had wings” department

It’s never a bad time to construct a counterfactual. What if Rick Perry had never said, “Oops”? What if he could have, for Christ’s sake, just remembered that he had wanted to gut the Department of Energy? What if he hadn’t climbed into a tan coat and Brett Favre jeans and released that abominable Youtube […]

Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County

Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at the Presidential and Senate results for each of the State Rep districts. Here are the […]

Precinct analysis: The “not Obama” vote, such as it was

I now have my hands on a draft canvass for the Democratic primary in Harris County, and you know what that means: Precinct data! I’ll be doing various analyses over the week so we can get a better idea of just what happened in this election. Let’s start with the Presidential race, such as it […]