Now that we’re hip-deep in this little legislative comedy, how exactly do we get ourselves out of it?
The lines in the sand are pretty clear. Democrats want the Republicans to take the DeLay redistricting plan off the table. Republicans want the Democrats back in the House, by whatever means necessary.
The Democrats are pretty much committed here. If they return without assurance that redistricting is a dead issue, then their walkout had no purpose. Everything positive they’ve gotten so far – sympathy from newspaper editorial boards, a fired-up voter base, recognition for having actual cojones – would not only disappear, it would be thrown back at them with vicious fury. They’ve given the GOP a slap across the cheek with their glove, so they cannot be seen to run away from the duel. In short, they started it and they’d better finish it.
This works for and against them. Surely some cooler heads in the state GOP have to be thinking that DeLay’s fantasy Congressional map isn’t worth all this crap. There’s no budget, school finance reform (which many new GOP legislators ran on) has already been delayed, and insurance reform (the Governor’s alleged top priority) is still vaporware. There has to be some temptation to give in.
On the other hand, if the Dems stay out for the rest of the week, the entire session is moot. If this happens, regardless of any special session makeup work, those same newspaper editors will blame them for the death of all the other bills that currently hang in limbo. There’s a point out there somewhere, I can’t say where it is, where the tide is likely to turn against the Dems. For sure, the GOP knows this, too, and may very well bank its strategy on it.
The GOP has more to lose in the short term, since they’re in complete control of the legislative agenda otherwise. They also have more flexibility in their possible options. They can play hardball and hope to do serious damage to the Democrats, or they can try to play the “statesman” card and magnanimously agree to concede on this trifling redistricting thing (knowing that they can try again in 2005) if the prodigal Dems will agree to come home and play nice. The latter scenario isn’t a clear win for them, but it likely recovers a lot of the yardage they’ve lost and it gives them a certain amount of moral high ground for the rest of the session.
I’m still struck by the relative silence of David Dewhurst. He’s remained optimistic and above the fray, and the longer this goes on the better he looks. Dewhurst supposedly wanted to run for Senate in 2006 but was talked out of it so John Cornyn could go for Phil Gramm’s seat. With rumors of KB Hutchinson’s retirement in 2006 floating around, Dewhurst may be looking to come out of this with a better reputation than Governor Perry, who has always been mentioned as the likely GOP nominee for Hutchinson’s seat. Given Dewhurst’s personal wealth and thus his lesser dependence on the state’s money raising machine, he could try to broker a deal, which if successful sure would make those editorial page writers swoon.
No matter how you slice it, this is still better entertainment than most of the summer movies promise to be.
This works for and against them. Surely some cooler heads in the state GOP have to be thinking that DeLay’s fantasy Congressional map isn’t worth all this crap. There’s no budget, school finance reform (which many new GOP legislators ran on) has already been delayed, and insurance reform (the Governor’s alleged top priority) is still vaporware. There has to be some temptation to give in.
Don’t be so sure, Chuck. The budget pretty much was going to force a special session anyway. Having the Dems walk out and scuttle practically the entire session, with it school finance reform and insurance reform gives the GOP two more juicy issues to upon which to campaign and in effect let’s Perry off the hook on “vaporware” insurance reform.
It’ll go something like, “I had an insurance reform bill ready for the house but the cowardly Democrats ran out on their duty.” BTW-Expect to hear “cowardly” a lot.
So, I don’t think the temptation is that big.
The thing I can’t figure out is why they used this tactic on this issue. Last week Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos said he could block it from even being discussed in the Senate. It would have likely died there. Besides, protecting Congressional districts will be viewed as looking out for the good of the party which appeals to the base. They could have used this tactic later when the social program budget cuts come and when they would have had a much better chance of winning and they would have had a broader political support.
It’ll go something like, “I had an insurance reform bill ready for the house but the cowardly Democrats ran out on their duty.” BTW-Expect to hear “cowardly” a lot.
Fair point, though Perry had better be able to produce such a bill if he’s going to make that claim. He’s also taken quite a bit of guff for this issue so far, so he runs a risk of ridicule.
That said, I can certainly see things being spun that way, and the “cowardly” label is sure to be heard quite a bit. This thing won’t be over until long after the Dems return.
“…Perry had better be able to produce such a bill if he’s going to make that claim. He’s also taken quite a bit of guff for this issue so far, so he runs a risk of ridicule.
That’s the thing, this gives him boatloads more time to address it. Special sessions usually deal with one or two specific issues. This won’t make the top 3 so he can coast for a while.
Charles, I don’t doubt the GOP will be able to make some intermediate term hay from this, but in 18 months, the voters are more likely to vote their wallets than any bit of current theater.
More importantly, I sense this is firing up a few Dems around the country. Maybe it’ll stimulate a little more energy in the party.
I have a hard time seeing how anybody comes out looking better from this except with their own core constituencies. To me it’s the middle voters and independents that will be most pissed off by this pissing match. Both sides are getting pretty urine-soaked here.
binkley: (first: hi!) I think you’re right. I’m not sure that as of now anyone has been swayed at the ballot box. If it makes for a meaner campaign, then I don’t know who that will benefit, either. The two people with a dog in this hunt are Craddick, who may not get a second shot at a leadership position if he rides a debacle to the ground and Sylvester Turner, who seems resigned to taking heat for whatever choice he made come the Mayoral Election.