That means he does Republican things.
Beto O’Rourke
Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination.
“My plan is to vote for the Republican nominee,” Hurd told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”
“So, you would vote for President Trump over Beto O’Rourke?” Tapper asked.
“It’s most likely that Donald Trump is the likely candidate, right,” Hurd said.
“So, Trump over O’Rourke?” Tapper pressed again.
“That’s very clear,” Hurd replied. “Unless Beto O’Rourke decides to run as a Republican, which I don’t think he’s planning on doing.”
Normally, “Republican Congressman says he will vote for Republican President” is not news, but this is Will Hurd and Beto O’Rourke, stars of a buddy road trip video, in which Beto’s refusal to campaign against Hurd in the latter’s hotly contested Congressional race caused a minor kerfuffle before full-on Betomania made everyone forget the whole thing. Hurd survived his race by less than a point, in a district that Beto carried by five points, and it’s safe to say that some Dems think Beto’s hands-off approach to Hurd and his race was a decisive factor.
There is little doubt in my mind that Beto cost Dems a Congressional seat here. One can decide to care, or not to care, but that’s what happened.
— Harold Cook (@HCookAustin) 1:17 PM – 10 March 2019
It’s really hard to say what the effect actually was, but here’s a look at some numbers.
Dist Beto Litton Cruz Crenshaw
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CD02 129,460 119,992 132,559 139,188
Dist Beto Sanchez Cruz Wright
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CD06 124,144 116,350 132,290 135,961
Dist Beto Fletcher Cruz Culb
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CD07 130,185 127,959 115,642 112,286
Dist Beto Siegel Cruz McCaul
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CD10 154,034 144,034 153,467 157,166
Dist Beto Kopser Cruz Roy
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CD21 177,246 168,421 177,785 177,654
Dist Beto Kulkarni Cruz Olson
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CD22 147,650 138,153 149,575 152,750
Dist Beto Jones Cruz Hurd
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CD23 110,689 102,359 100,145 103,285
Dist Beto McDowell Cruz Marchant
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CD24 136,786 125,231 127,534 133,317
Dist Beto Hegar Cruz Carter
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CD31 139,253 136,362 145,480 144,680
Dist Beto Allred Cruz Sessions
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CD32 152,092 144,067 122,736 126,101
First things first: Beto outscored every Dem in each of these Congressional districts, ranging from leads of 2,026 votes over Lizzie Fletcher and 2,891 votes over MJ Hegar to 11,555 votes over Jan McDowell. He led Gina Ortiz Jones by 8,330 votes, and in most cases led the Dem Congressional candidate by about 10,000 votes.
On the other hand, Ted Cruz trailed each Republican Congressional candidate/incumbent except for three: John Culberson, Chip Roy, and John Carter. Cruz had more votes in each district except the two that were won by Democrats, CDs 07 and 32, and Will Hurd’s CD23. Cruz trailed Dan Crenshaw in CD02 by 6,629 votes and Kenny Marchant in CD24 buy 5,883 votes, but otherwise was usually with three to four thousand votes of the GOP Congressional candidate.
In every case, there were more votes cast in the Senate race than in the Congressional race. In some but not all of these Congressional races, there was a Libertarian candidate. In CDs 02 and 22 there were also Independent candidates, while in CD07 it was just Fletcher and Culberson. Generally speaking, where it was an R/D/L race, the Libertarian candidate for Congress got more votes than the Libertarian candidate for Senate. For example, in CD21, Libertarian Congressional candidate Lee Santos got 7,542 votes, while Libertarian Senate candidate Neil Dikeman got 3,333. That accounts for some of the differences between the races, but not all of it.
What I’m left with is the impression that there was a set of voters, consistent across Congressional districts, who voted for Beto but skipped most or all of the downballot races, including the Congressional race. At the same time, there was a smaller but equally consistent number of Republicans who did vote downballot, particularly in the Congressional race, but skipped the Senate race. I presume these people refused to vote for Cruz but didn’t want to go all the way and vote for Beto.
That leads to two key questions: One, were there nominal Republicans who crossed over to vote for Beto, and – crucially – other Democrats. We know there were in CD07, because we see it in the varying levels of support for Republican candidates, at the local level as well as at the state level. How many were there, and did they exist in equivalent levels in other districts? That I don’t know.
Two, could Beto have moved votes in the CD23 election? Beto gained a lot of renown giving other candidates visibility and opportunities to campaign at his events. The gap between hit vote totals and those of the Congressional candidates suggests to me that such support only went so far. If Beto had explicitly stumped for Gina Ortiz Jones, might it have helped her gain the 900 votes she needed to win? Maybe. Maybe it would have pushed some of those non-Cruz voters to not skip the Senate race. Maybe it would have helped Hurd convince some Republicans who think he’s a RINO squish that he’s better than they give him credit for. Actions cause reactions, and they don’t always work in the same direction.
I wish I could give a more definitive answer to the question, but I can’t. The difference in the race is small, but there weren’t that many people who voted in CD23 but skipped that race. I certainly understand the frustration. I get why O’Rourke partnered with Hurd – he was in the minority in Congress, and he needed someone on the team that had a chance to pass bills to advocate for border issues, on which the two of them largely agreed. The larger picture is that nothing was going to change until Congress changed, and flipping CD23 could have been necessary for that to happen. Part of Beto’s brand was a certain maverick-ness that caused him to skip certain political norms when that suited him. That led him to not turn on his ally. As Harold Cook says, people can feel how they want to about that. I feel like the real difference in the CD23 race was more Will Hurd and Gina Ortiz Jones than Beto O’Rourke, but I understand if you feel otherwise.
Hurd will lose in 2020, assuming the Democrats have a decent candidate.
“Part of Beto’s brand was a certain maverick-ness that caused him to skip certain political norms when that suited him. That led him to not turn on his ally. ”
I’m not going to fault Beto for that. It’s not like there’s a shortage of flip flopping and backstabbing in politics this days. Ortiz Jones can take another shot next year.