President Trump’s job approval rating remains marginally underwater in Texas, with 45 percent of registered voters saying that they approve and 50 percent saying that they disapprove. Thinking ahead to 2020, 48 percent of Texas voters say that they would definitely not vote for Trump if he was the Republican nominee, while 35 percent say that they would definitely vote for him and 14 percent say that they would consider voting for him.
Most of this poll is about the Democratic primary, in which Joe Biden leads the field in Texas. The latest UT/Trib poll finds the same thing. I continue to be way more interested in the November 2020 matchups, so that’s what I’m going to focus on. Here are the important numbers from the poll:
8. In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?
WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Definitely vote 35% 77% 3% 22% 40% 30% 41% 58% Consider voting 14 14 1 21 16 11 16 15 Definitely not vote 48 7 93 52 41 55 41 25 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Definitely vote 21% 32% 40% 47% 52% 46% 49% 9% 20% Consider voting 20 17 10 8 17 14 15 7 14 Definitely not vote 55 49 47 43 29 37 33 78 65 DK/NA 5 2 3 2 2 3 2 6 19. In the 2020 general election for the U.S. Senate, if John Cornyn is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?
WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Definitely vote 23% 49% 2% 16% 25% 21% 33% 30% Consider voting 30 36 13 39 32 28 29 37 Definitely not vote 35 8 77 31 32 38 31 21 DK/NA 13 7 8 14 12 13 8 12 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Definitely vote 11% 16% 28% 39% 34% 29% 31% 8% 17% Consider voting 38 36 26 19 34 32 33 22 26 Definitely not vote 31 36 36 34 23 28 26 58 41 DK/NA 20 11 9 8 9 10 10 12 1713. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 45% 87% 2% 39% 53% 36% 49% 69% Disapprove 50 9 95 56 42 57 46 27 DK/NA 6 4 3 5 5 7 5 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 36% 44% 46% 50% 64% 54% 59% 15% 29% Disapprove 55 49 51 47 33 40 36 80 62 DK/NA 8 7 2 3 3 6 4 4 8
In the June Quinnipiac poll, they polled specific matchups, with Biden leading Trump 48-44, and other Dems not doing quite as well. I’m not sure why they strayed from that path to this more generic question, but whatever. The numbers look pretty lousy for Trump regardless. Cornyn does a little better, which does not conform to my thesis that he will perform about as well as Trump, but there’s a lot more uncertainty in the Cornyn numbers. Trump’s approval numbers are better here than in that Univision poll, but still underwater, with 50% disapproval. His national approval numbers have been tanking, as are his national re-elect numbers, so this may be a reflection of all that. Approval numbers matter. No matter how you slice this, it ain’t great for Trump.
U.S. Air Force veteran MJ Hegar, with a scant 11% of Texas Democrats supporting her, leads the Democratic candidates in the race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The bigger piece of news might be this: 66% of potential Democratic primary voters said either that they don’t know who they’ll support or that they haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion.
Asked whether they’ve heard of the candidates, most of the respondents threw up their hands. State Sen. Royce West of Dallas, the most well-known of the candidates, was known to just 22% of voters, followed by Hegar, an unsuccessful 2018 congressional candidate from Round Rock, 21%; Chris Bell, a former U.S. representative and the party’s 2006 candidate for governor, 20%; Sema Hernandez, who ran against Beto O’Rourke in last year’s primary for U.S. Senate, 13%; Beaumont pastor Michael Cooper and political organizer Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, 12% each; and Amanda Edwards, an at-large Houston city council member, 10%. Everyone else was known to fewer than 8% of Democratic voters.
Nevertheless, in a race held today, Hegar is the favorite, at 11%, with the other candidates mired in the low single digits behind her: West, 5%; Hernandez and Tzintzún Ramirez, 3% each; Bell, Cooper and Edwards, 2% each.
“[Hegar] is really well positioned,”said Daron Shaw, professor of government at UT-Austin and co-director of the poll. “She’s the frontrunner. I don’t know that it’s her race to lose, but she’s certainly got a leg up.”
Like I’ve said, don’t focus too much on these numbers yet. When one or more of the candidates starts spending money on a state campaign, we’ll begin to see how the race may shape up. Until then, it’s all up in the air. The DMN has more.
Not sure how Daron Shaw can say it’s Hegar’s to lose at this point. Might be saying that because that’s what the Washington consultants are saying right now.
Royce has the best route of getting to and winning the runoff if he runs a compelling race, and embraces a strong digital effort. He will get much of the black vote in Dallas, Tarrant, East Texas, and a good chunk in Harris even with Edwards down there. He’ll have some support from the party machinery in the valley.
I think Hegar will be strong in Austin/Centex area, and in the suburbs in the metro media markets. That plus the rural areas outside east texas is enough to get into the runoff.
If Ramirez gets traction and financial support, with the help of Malitz and his team then look out.