Off the Kuff: Election 2008 Archives

Presidential results by Congressional district

Swing State Project has compiled a list of Presidential results by Congressional district, for all 435 DCs around the country. I've pulled out the Texas numbers and put them in a Google spreadsheet for ease of viewing. Here are a few notable ones:



CD  Incumbent  Obama   Kerry   Gore

===================================

03    Johnson     42      33     30

07  Culberson     41      36     31

10     McCaul     44      38     34

21      Smith     41      34     31

22      Olson     41      36     33

24   Marchant     44      35     32

26    Burgess     42      35     38

31     Carter     42      33     32

32   Sessions     46      40     36

The numbers represent the percentage of the vote the Democratic Presidential nominee got in that district in that year. I believe this is a two-party comparison, so Nader votes were excluded; in other years, the third-party Presidential vote is small enough to not matter much. "Incumbent" refers to the 2008 officeholder.

(By the way, my assumption is that the 2000 results are derived from taking the data from the existing precincts for that year, regardless of which actual CD they were in at that time. That must be the case, because CDs 31 and 32 didn't exist in 2000.)

You can also now see similar figures from the Cook Political Report, which just released its updated PVIs to reflect the 2008 Presidential cycle. What does this mean?

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI) Explained

In August of 1997, The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness of each of the 435 congressional districts. Using the 1992 and 1996 major-party Presidential voting results, the PVI measured how each congressional district performed compared to the nation as a whole.

Using the results of the 2004 and 2008 elections, we have updated these PVI ratings and have even more information to draw upon to understand the congressional level trends and tilts that will help to define upcoming elections.

Developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata, the index is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years.

While other data such as the results of senatorial, gubernatorial, congressional and other local races can help fine tune the exact partisan tilt of a particular district, those kinds of results don't allow a comparison of districts across state lines. Only Presidential results allow for total comparability.

A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.

To determine the national average for these latest ratings, we have taken the average Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote for 2004 and 2008, which is roughly 51.3 percent, and that of Republicans, which is roughly 48.7 percent. So, if John Kerry captured 55 percent of the vote in a district and Barack Obama carried 57 percent in the district four years later, the district would have a PVI score of roughly D+5.

And here are the PVIs for the Texas districts:

04/13/09 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: The City Council districts revised

Last week, I presented data on the 2008 election results by City Council district and by city of Houston/not City of Houston. I said at the time that the measurement was a bit rough because precinct boundaries do not conform to City of Houston boundaries. After the post was published, I heard from Eric Ingenthron, who has been crunching some numbers for the Karen Derr campaign, and he was able to provide me some more granular data about individual precincts and the number of registrants in each that have the "city of Houston" designation on them. I then used his data to refine my results, and this is what I came up with.



District   Obama  Noriega  Garcia  Judicials

============================================

Houston     61.0     61.8    65.9       60.9

Harris      39.5     40.5    45.7       39.8

A           45.4     46.6    52.9       45.2

B           91.0     91.6    92.9       91.7

C           60.6     59.9    64.5       58.5

D           88.9     87.1    88.7       86.9

E           40.8     42.4    47.4       40.9

F           63.7     65.2    68.8       65.0

G           42.2     40.6    45.6       39.2

H           68.8     72.5    77.7       70.9

I           72.6     79.0    81.6       76.5

The first thing to note is that by getting better information about the Houston/not Houston distinction, I was able to shift about 100,000 votes that I had been counting as Houston out of that bucket and into the not-Houston bucket. Now instead of counting for about 57% of the total vote, the city of Houston now accounts for about 52% of the total, which is a much more accurate representation of the city to county population ratio. That's also the reason why the Democrats' share of the vote in each region went up, as the votes in question were less Democratic overall than the city of Houston share, but more so than the non-Houston share.

The biggest differences in the individual Council districts were in A, which shifted about six points in the Dems' favor, and B, which moved about four points in that direction. District D also became a bit bluer, by about a point. That made District A much closer to parity, with Adrian Garcia carrying the district, and confirmed my initial suspicion, which I'd thought had been rebutted, that it is winnable this year by a Democrat. District E became about a point less Democratic, District G a tenth of a point less so; they were the only districts to move away from the Dems in this recalculation. All other districts remained about the same.

Anyway, that's the revised data. Greg, who was correct to suspect that such a refinement would move the needle about two points overall inside Houston towards the Dems, has more.

04/07/09 | permalink | comments [1]

Precinct analysis: The City Council districts

I'd been wondering for a long time how the 2008 vote broke down by City Council districts, as well as for the city of Houston versus non-Houston Harris County. I finally did something about it awhile ago and made a call to Hector de Leon at the Harris County Clerk's office to ask him if precinct data was available from the 2007 election that could help me answer these questions. He very kindly provided me with a spreadsheet that gave all the 2007 results by precinct, and I was off to the races. Here's what I found out.

There's one key point that needs to be understood before I get into this: Precinct boundaries do not conform to City of Houston boundaries. In other words, a given precinct may have voters who live inside the City of Houston, and voters who do not. The effect of this on my analysis, since my data is only granular to the precinct level, is that about half again as many votes were counted as "City of Houston" than they were as "Harris County". That's because if a precinct had votes in it for the 2007 election in a city race, it was counted in its entirity towards the City of Houston total in 2008. Had this not been the case, I would have expected a roughly equal amount of votes inside and out of Houston in Harris County. I just don't have any way to make a distinction within a precinct, so we have to live with that.

That raises the interesting question of whether or not this skews the numbers I generated, and if so by how much? Precincts are geographically small, so these Houston/not Houston voters in the same precinct are basically neighbors for the most part. What's the bigger factor in determining their voting behavior: proximity or city limits? There's probably a master's thesis in that. In any event, my rough guess is that the results I've generated probably underestimate the Democratic-ness of the city of Houston and overstate it for its complement, but not by very much.

I note here I'm still using draft canvass numbers from 2008, which is basically all of the non-provisional votes. I don't think this makes much difference, either, but I wanted to mention it just to be clear. And so, without further ado...



District   Obama  Noriega  Garcia  Judicials

============================================

Houston     58.5     59.3    63.5       58.4

Harris      39.0     40.1    45.3       39.3

A           39.5     40.2    46.3       39.0

B           86.8     87.7    89.4       87.8

C           60.6     59.9    64.5       58.5

D           87.7     87.1    88.7       87.0

E           41.3     43.2    48.1       41.8

F           63.6     65.1    68.7       65.0

G           42.3     40.7    45.6       39.2

H           68.8     72.4    77.6       70.9

I           72.7     79.0    81.6       76.5

The numbers given are percentages of the vote, for Barack Obama, Rick Noriega, Adrian Garcia, and the county Democratic judicial candidates. A few thoughts:

- I had previously thought that District A would be amenable to electing a Democrat this year to replace the term-limited Toni Lawrence. That doesn't appear to be the case here. I was surprised to see that A was the most GOP of the districts - I'd have guessed it would have been E or G. It may be that the precincts that encompass District A also happen to include some strongly Republican non-Houston turf, more so than E or G, I can't say. But it does put a bit of a damper on my hopes for Jeff Downing and Lane Lewis.

- I expected Districts C and F to skew Democratic, but I was surprised by how much they did. Given that C's precincts likely include some pieces of West U and Bellaire, that's even more impressive. Democrats - and as that stands right now, that means Mike Laster - ought to win F this year, and I'd give good odds on winning C in 2011 when Anne Clutterbuck terms out.

- In the meantime, despite their inability to compete citywide, Republicans have overperformed a bit in winning district Council races, as they have five seats but are only a majority in three. As noted, I think that's a temporary situation, and given Adrian Garcia's showing in those three red districts, they shouldn't be taken for granted by anyone, either.

- Of course, the electorate for a historic Presidential race and the electorate for city races, even one with a wide-open Mayoral campaign, are two very different things. All things considered, that probably gives a more Republican tilt overall, one which is more pronounced in the years that don't have a Mayoral melee at the top of the ticket. How big an effect that is, and how much it's being counteracted by demographic trends, I couldn't say.

- Finally, I thought I'd add one more table, showing how many votes were cast in each Council district in the Presidential race, again bearing in mind all the caveats from above:



District     Votes

==================

A          118,019

B           72,743

C           73,627

D           81,009

E          113,438

F           43,704

G           99,061

H           47,409

I           35,492

Even if you assume some districts are more bolstered by precincts with non-Houston voters than others, there are still some pretty huge differences there. Let's just say I foresee large challenges for those who are tasked with redrawing City Council districts, whenever that may be.

04/02/09 | permalink | comments [3]

Jim Sharp investiture

Jim Sharp, who was elected to the First Court of Appeals in November, has asked me to pass along an invitation to his investiture, which will be held this Thursday, February 12, at 4 PM in the Gerald Treece Courthouse at the South Texas College of Law downtown. Details can be found here (PDF). Enjoy!

02/07/09 | permalink | comments [0]

Representative Walle

Really nice story in (somewhat oddly) the lifestyle section of the paper about freshman Rep. Armado Walle, who won the Democratic primary against long-term incumbent and former Craddick D Kevin Bailey last year. Walle has a great from-the-bootstraps story to tell and a track record of hard work and dedication that will make him a fine representative for HD140. I supported his candidacy, and I'm happy as heck to see him in Austin. Check it out.

01/20/09 | permalink | comments [1]

Supreme Court declines to hear TDP's appeal in voting machine suit

No surprise.

The U.S. Supreme Court refused Monday to revive the Texas Democratic Party's lawsuit complaining that eSlate voting machines widely used in the state don't properly record straight-party votes.

The court declined without comment to hear the case. Democrats had sued Texas and lost in lower-level federal courts.

[...]

Attorneys for the party argued that the voting machines, which are used in about 100 of the state's 254 counties, are prone to undercounting votes in general elections if someone casts a straight-ticket ballot but then marks an individual candidate's name, as if for emphasis. They said because the equipment doesn't record votes the same as other machines, use of them is a violation of the U.S. Constitution.

The Texas Secretary of State's Office has said that if a voter chooses a straight-ticket option first, but then goes through and pushes buttons for individual candidates on eSlate, those candidates are deselected and a vote for them won't be cast. If a voter chooses individual candidates first, then decides to pick the straight-ticket box, all of that party's candidates are selected.

All I can say is that my experience with the eSlate machine matches the SOS description of its behavior, and that I thought it was sufficiently obvious what was happening as to meet a reasonable standard for such things. There's certainly room for the interface to be improved, and we won't get into the issue of printed receipts, which I still think would be a fine idea, but I never bought the TDP's argument in this one. A statement from TDP Chair Boyd Ritchie is beneath the fold.

01/13/09 | permalink | comments [0]

Pierre claims uncounted votes in his lawsuit

Here's an update on Democratic judicial candidate J. Goodwille Pierre, who filed a lawsuit in December claiming that votes were improperly rejected in his race, which he lost by 230 tallies to incumbent Judge Joseph "Tad" Halbach.

The Harris County Clerk's Office sent [Shilonda R.] Williams a letter after the November election saying her ballot had been disqualified because there was no record of her voter registration.

But the bipartisan Early Ballot Board, formed to make final decisions on whether thousands of questioned ballots should have been counted, never got to deliver a verdict on whether Williams was missing from the registration list. The clerk's office withheld Williams' ballot from the referees because election workers apparently lost track of the electronic record of the choices she had marked on a voting machine.

Because there was no way to retrieve a record of her votes, it was uncertain Thursday whether her votes were rejected prematurely -- or counted when they should not have been.

The ballot board, chaired by Republican retired business executive Jim Harding, rejected more than 5,000 ballots cast by people who were allowed to vote on the condition that questions about their registration status would have to be resolved weeks later. Each of those voters had to fill out a "provisional ballot affidavit," swearing he or she was qualified to vote, before getting to touch a voting machine.

But more than 200 affidavits never made it through the system because there was no record of cast votes to go with them.

In some cases, people completed the affidavit without subsequently voting, according to ballot records. In others, election judges mistakenly gave provisional voters a code that allowed their votes to be recorded permanently, with no way for county workers or the ballot board to decide whether the votes should have been counted.

"My mistake -- went through as a regular vote," an election judge in northwest Houston wrote on a woman's ballot.

But in Williams' case and others, there was no ready explanation for why the clerk's office said it never received a ballot along with the affidavit.

It's clear from reading the story that there was some confusion over provisional ballots, and that some procedures might not have been followed completely. What's not clear to me is whether you can say this necessarily had an effect on the outcome. I would think the only possible remedy if you accept Pierre's arguments is a do-over. I don't see that happening, but I guess that's the judge's headache. The case is apparently now being litigated in Montgomery County, and there's no hearing date set yet. Makes me wonder if we'll have a resolution before the 2010 filing deadline. Cory has more.

01/09/09 | permalink | comments [0]

Walker withdraws election contest

That didn't last long. Losing HD11 candidate Brian Walker has withdrawn his election challenge to State Rep. Chuck Hopson.

State Rep. Chuck Hopson says he's home free. Hopson, D-Jacksonville, says he was notified by Speaker Tom Craddick's office [Monday] afternoon that his November opponent, Republican Brian Walker, has withdrawn his election contest.

"We are pleased that this election has come to a conclusion," said Hopson, first elected to the Texas House in 2000.

One less source of drama for the upcoming session, which didn't need any more of that. Thanks to BOR for the heads up.

12/24/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Election challenge in HD11

Brian Walker, the losing Republican challenger to State Rep. Chuck Hopson in the second closest election of the year in HD11, has filed paperwork for an election contest in the House. From the Quorum Report:

After the recount, Hopson beat Walker by more than 200 votes.

In his statement, Walker said, "The petition contains allegations of improper election procedures in Cherokee County that may have compromised the integrity of the election process. According to the Walker Campaign, an election contest is the only opportunity left for East Texas voters to get honest answers to some very troubling questions that were not answered before or during the recount process as well as a few that have arisen since. The allegations in the Petition for Election Contest are based on information provided by third parties to the Walker Campaign, first-hand observations by Walker campaign volunteers on Election Day, and first-hand observations by individuals overseeing the recount process in Cherokee County. The campaign is in the process of investigating each of the allegations individually to determine their level of merit."

At first blush, this would appear to be Speaker politics games. However, law and precedent would have Hopson sworn in on the first day along with his colleagues. The only vote he would not be able to participate in would be on the Walker election contest challenge if it actually made it to the House floor many weeks down the road..

[...]

Attorney Buck Wood said, "With Walker down more than 200 votes they have absolutely no chance on this. I think it was purely defensive because they thought we might seek to contest the Linda Harper-Brown election and I would have if we had pulled ahead after re-considering the de-selected votes. But we didn't."

"I doubt they will even pursue this," Wood said. "It would require proving systematic fraud."

You'd think if that were the case they'd have gotten AG Greg Abbott and his crack staff of vote-fraud-sniffer-outers on the job. Be that as it may, the main point to note is that this will not have an effect on the math for the Speaker's race. At least, assuming the Speaker's race doesn't drag out past the first couple of days or so, it won't.

Vince notes that this is the first election challenge in the House since Talmadge Heflin tried to overturn Rep. Hubert Vo's victory in 2005. I'd add that there were at one point a total of three election challenges in that cycle; the others were by Eric Opiela against Rep. Yvonne Gonzales Toreilles in HD35 and by former Rep. Jack Stick against Rep. Mark Strama in HD50. Stick dropped his challenge shortly thereafter, and Opiela followed suit before it got underway. My suspicion is that Walker's challenge will dissolve before it begins, but you never know. Trail Blazers has more.

12/18/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Huffman defeats Bell

Alas. The Democrats had the votes in November, but thanks to the Republican ringer, that wasn't good enough. My sincere thanks to Chris Bell for all he did. He deserved better. Congratulations for Sen.-elect Joan Huffman on her victory. May she be unlike so many of her fellow Republicans and respect the people who voted for her by serving her full term in office.

UPDATE: Here's Bell's statement:

"I entered this race because I truly believe it is vital for us to change the overall direction of our state. Though we came up short tonight, I am very proud of the campaign we have run - a campaign that focused on the issues that matter to the people of Texas and Senate District 17.

I traveled across this district and visited with so many of its residents about the concerns they face. It only reinforced my belief that in order to create a brighter future for our kids, we must act now to implement real education and health care reform.

I want to thank all of my supporters and campaign volunteers who worked tirelessly to bring real reform to the Texas Senate. We could not have made it without your time, energy and commitment to this campaign and to the future of Texas."

12/16/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Today is Runoff Day

12/16/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Some dirty tricks in the SD17 runoff

12/14/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Gallegos and Van de Putte criticize DSCC

12/12/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Dems drop legal challenge to Harper-Brown

12/12/08 | permalink | comments [0]

One hundred feet

12/11/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Lawsuit filed over rejected voter registrations

12/11/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Followup on the Libertarian effect in the House

12/11/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Get on the bus for Bell

12/10/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: North by northwest

12/10/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: The appeals courts

12/09/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Early voting is going on now in SD17

12/09/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Bettencourt speaks

12/07/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Endorsement watch: Bell again

12/07/08 | permalink | comments [0]

HD105 recount concluded

12/07/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Still more on Bettencourt

12/06/08 | permalink | comments [3]

A little more on Bettencourt

12/06/08 | permalink | comments [5]

Bettencourt resigning

12/05/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Bell on the air

12/05/08 | permalink | comments [0]

A message from the Bell campaign

12/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: Go west, young candidate

12/03/08 | permalink | comments [1]

That other recount

12/03/08 | permalink | comments [0]

HD105 recount lawsuit moves to federal court

12/02/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: Even in his own back yard

12/02/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Early voting locations for the SD17 runoff

12/01/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: It's Gene Green's world

12/01/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Be careful what you're thankful for

12/01/08 | permalink | comments [0]

The state of the Speaker's race in a nutshell

11/30/08 | permalink | comments [0]

The twelfth Senator

11/29/08 | permalink | comments [2]

There's a new Sheriff in town

11/28/08 | permalink | comments [1]

HD105 litigation update

11/27/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: Some other views

11/26/08 | permalink | comments [0]

HD105 recount litigation

11/25/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Precinct analysis: The microcosm

11/25/08 | permalink | comments [1]

More swearing-in ceremonies

11/25/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: What we've learned so far

11/24/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Precinct analysis: The Richmond Rail Effect 2008

11/20/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: CD07

11/19/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Precinct analysis: The declining Republican brand

11/18/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Meet the new District Clerk

11/18/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Election date set for SD17

11/17/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct analysis: The Obama effect

11/17/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Time to gear up for Chris Bell

11/17/08 | permalink | comments [1]

A word on voter registration numbers

11/16/08 | permalink | comments [0]

From the "Predictions that didn't quite pan out" department

11/14/08 | permalink | comments [4]

The counting is over

11/14/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Precinct data: Coming attractions

11/13/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Where - and when - the vote was

11/12/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Democrats sue Bettencourt over provisional ballots

11/12/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Recount in HD105

11/12/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Republicans hold HD105

11/11/08 | permalink | comments [0]

So was there an HGLBT endorsement backlash?

11/10/08 | permalink | comments [6]

That horse is dead. Please stop beating it.

11/10/08 | permalink | comments [4]

Republican recriminations

11/10/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Only provisional ballots left to go

11/09/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Time for Bell v. Huffman

11/08/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Vince and Brad

11/07/08 | permalink | comments [0]

The Speaker's race is officially underway

11/06/08 | permalink | comments [0]

The big urbans and the big suburbans revisited

11/06/08 | permalink | comments [1]

So what happened to the turnout?

11/06/08 | permalink | comments [3]

My court will go on

11/05/08 | permalink | comments [8]

Some more early thoughts on what happened

11/05/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Some early thoughts on what happened

11/05/08 | permalink | comments [9]

At the end of the day

11/05/08 | permalink | comments [4]

Tightening

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Fort Bend

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Early results around the state

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Early Harris County results are in!

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Where to get started

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [4]

A vote for voting today

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [4]

A complete list of interviews for this election

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

All my judicial Q&As

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

The big urbans and the big suburbans

11/04/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Report voting conditions and problems using Twitter

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Just vote

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [0]

SOS estimates nine million voters

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [2]

Only fools make predictions

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [3]

Interview with Mark Thompson

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Coattails and turnout in Harris County

11/03/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Look out for the last minute attacks

11/02/08 | permalink | comments [1]

"Mommy! He's hitting back!"

11/02/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Are you ready for the Speaker's race?

11/02/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Endorsement watch: "The Wire" meets The Financial Times

11/02/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Early voting: Right on target

11/01/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Endorsement watch: That's a wrap

11/01/08 | permalink | comments [0]

A cornucopia of late night electoral tidbits

10/31/08 | permalink | comments [0]

Early voting: Did I mention today is the last day?

10/31/08 | permalink | comments [1]

Endorsement watch: The "We just realized there's only one day of early voting left" edition