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Posts under ‘Election 2016’

The rural/suburban tradeoff

Martin Longman returns to a point he has been making about the way the vote shifted in the 2016 election. Let’s try to be clear about what we mean. Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes in the suburbs from people who had voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney. She lost even more votes […]

Precinct analysis: SBOE districts

There are 15 members on the State Board of Education, five Democrats and ten Republicans. Of those ten Republican-held seats, four of them were in districts that were interesting in 2016: Dist Incumbent Clinton Trump Obama Romney ================================================= SBOE5 Mercer 47.0% 46.8% 42.9% 54.7% SBOE6 Bahorich 46.3% 48.6% 38.8% 59.7% SBOE10 Maynard 42.5% 51.6% 40.5% […]

Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

The Texas Legislative Council now has full data from the 2016 elections on its site, so this seemed like as good a time as any to take a look at the data from Congressional districts. I’m much more limited in what I can do when I have to rely on precinct data from counties because […]

Nonprofit VOTE report on voter turnout

For your perusal. NATIONAL TURNOUT Voter turnout exceeded 2012 at a level consistent with the last three presidential elections. 60.2% of the nation’s 231 million eligible voters cast ballots, according to ballots counted and certified by state election boards, compared to 58.6% turnout in 2012. Four in ten eligible voters didn’t vote. Among the most […]

Voter ID education was a massive failure

This is outrageous. The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs recently completed a report, “The Texas Voter ID Law and the 2016 Election,” based on surveys of registered voters who sat out the 2016 elections in the state’s two highest profile battleground jurisdictions: Harris County and Congressional District 23 (CD-23), which stretches from […]

Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape. Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the top of the ticket have recently done well. Specifically, they are the districts where Republicans […]

Two unsatisfying articles about the 2016 Democratic sweep in Harris County

The Democratic sweep in Harris County has drawn some national attention, as writers from the left and right try to analyze what happened here last year and why Hillary Clinton carried the county by such a large margin. Unfortunately, as is often the case with stories about Texas by people not from Texas, the results […]

Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is more useful for assessing possible legislative races. There were seven contested district and county court […]

Our first look at Senate district data

The Trib looks at the data we now have. In the state Senate, one Republican — Don Huffines of Dallas — is now representing a district that Clinton easily won, while two more — Konni Burton of Colleyville and Joan Huffman of Houston — are now sitting in areas that Clinton almost carried. In the […]

On those “improper” votes

Let’s be clear about this. Texas election officials have acknowledged that hundreds of people were allowed to bypass the state’s toughest-in-the-nation voter ID law and improperly cast ballots in the November presidential election by signing a sworn statement instead of showing a photo ID. The chief election officers in two of the state’s largest counties […]

Latino turnout was up in 2016

That’s what the numbers say. Nearly 30 percent more Texas Latinos went to the polls in 2016 than in 2012, reducing the participation gap with other Texas voters and signaling to some observers that elections will become increasingly competitive in the Lone Star State. Non-Latino voters increased by a more modest 9.2 percent between presidential […]

As goes Tarrant

The Trib ponders the one big urban county that is not like the others. Among the state’s five biggest counties, Tarrant is the only one that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past decade. The 2016 presidential election heightened Tarrant’s status as an outlier. Even as the rest of the state’s big-city territories […]

HCDP Chair Q&A: Lillie Schechter

(Note: I have sent out a brief Q&A to all of the announced HCDP Chair candidates for whom I could find contact information. I will run the responses I get in the order I receive them. While only precinct chairs will vote on the new Chair, I believe everyone should have some basic information about […]

The people who would have been denied the opportunity to vote in 2016

There were a lot of them. At least 16,400 Texans who voted in the November election wouldn’t have been able to cast ballots if the state’s voter identification law had been in full effect, state voting records show. […] Through a public records request to the Texas secretary of state’s office, the American-Statesman obtained copies […]

Precinct analysis: Dallas County statewides

Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with me. First up is the Railroad Commissioner race. Dist Christian Yarb Miller Salinas ========================================= CD32 […]

Precinct analysis: Dallas County Presidential numbers

News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself: Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein ======================================== CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056 HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217 HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287 HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205 HD104 6,941 25,168 414 200 HD105 20,979 25,087 855 246 HD107 24,162 29,159 991 274 […]

Precinct analysis: Texas Congressional districts

From Daily Kos: Texas’s GOP-drawn congressional map was designed to create 24 safely red seats and 11 safely Democratic districts, with only the 23rd District in the western part of the state being truly competitive. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state 57-41 and won those 24 red seats by double digits, while Barack Obama […]

Sheriff Gonzalez’s staff

Sheriff Ed Gonzalez combines diversity with experience in his braintrust. New Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez has tapped a diverse wave of law enforcement veterans to fill his top command staff, sharply increasing the number of minority leaders and naming the first female assistant chief ever in the sheriff’s office. In his first week as […]

The Trib looks at Fort Bend’s Democratic trend

It’s worth noting. Despite long being considered a Republican county, Fort Bend went blue on Nov. 8 when Hillary Clinton won the county with an almost seven-point margin of victory. It wasn’t just an electoral flip — it was a 13-point swing from the 2012 presidential election. And it marked the third presidential election in […]

Kim Ogg’s swearing in

New DA Kim Ogg took her oath of office at an earlier time than the other Democratic elected officials, then had a more celebratory followup event afterward. Ogg, who defeated incumbent Republican Devon Anderson in November, was first sworn into office just after the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Day. But Monday’s event gave […]

Here come the Dems

All the newly-elected county officials have now been sworn in. The new Harris County officials sworn in New Year’s Day had something in common: They were all Democrats. The swearing-in ceremony at 2 p.m. Sunday followed the Democratic Party’s sweep of every countywide office in November’s general election, including closely watched contests against incumbent Republicans […]

Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

I had some time to spare, so I spent it with the canvass reports from Brazoria County. You know, like you do. Here’s what I was able to learn. Trump Clinton R Avg D Avg Weber Cole ======================================================= Votes 36,572 15,127 37,036 14,996 37,917 14,678 Pct 68.58% 28.23% 71.18% 28.82% 72.09% 27.91% Trump Clinton R […]

Precinct analysis: Don’t be mesmerized by the Clinton/Trump numbers

From the DMN: Donald Trump may have carried Texas and clinched the White House in November, but support for the Republican presidential nominee waned in parts of the Dallas area — news that, in a typical election year, could spell trouble for some Republican-held congressional seats. A Dallas Morning News analysis of nine North Texas […]

The new Sheriff in town

Sheriff-elect Ed Gonzalez has his work cut out for him. When newly elected Sheriff Ed Gonzalez takes office on Jan. 1, he will face a tangle of budget, staffing and jail inmate safety issues inherited from more than a decade of struggles at the nation’s third-largest sheriff’s department. Staff shortages at the troubled jail operation […]

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend State Rep districts

Following on from yesterday’s post, here’s a look at the vote in Fort Bend from the perspective of the State Rep districts. Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem % =============================================== President 35,005 31,558 52.59% 47.41% CJ, 1st CofA 40,047 28,336 58.56% 41.44% 1st CofA #4 39,311 28,940 57.60% 42.40% 14th CofA #2 39,351 28,873 57.68% […]

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend Commissioners Court precincts

I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on it from which one can download an Excel-format canvass report. It’s laid out differently than […]

Luman will request recount

John Luman posted the following on Facebook yesterday: Talk about close races! As of last night’s “unofficial” results, only 27 votes separate Anne Sung and me. Given the tightness of the race, I feel compelled on behalf of all of you who supported and invested in me to ask for a ballot recount. Had I […]

Sung nips Luman in HISD runoff

By twenty-seven votes. Anne Sung narrowly defeated John Luman in a runoff election Saturday to take a seat on the Houston Independent School District board of trustees. Sung, who turns 38 Sunday, had the backing of the Houston Federation of Teachers. The Bellaire High School graduate taught in the Houston school district after working as […]

Runoff Day for HISD special election

From the inbox: Saturday, Dec. 10, is Election Day for voters in HISD Trustee District VII and City of Baytown Council District 3. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. There are 178,717 registered voters in HISD Trustee District VII eligible to vote in the Runoff Elections. A map of the boundaries […]

Runoff early voting: Light turnout

Hey, remember that there’s a runoff for the special election to fill the HISD Trustee position in District VII? Well, early voting for it ended on Tuesday, and turnout so far is about what you’d expect for such an election. Here’s the EV by location report for the runoff, which encompasses two races: for Baytown […]

Precinct analysis: None of the above

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at write-in candidates and at undervotes. Dist McMullen All WI McMullin% All WI% ========================================= HD126 354 […]

Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 PM, going on to win by a modest margin. Here’s how that broke down: Dist […]

Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 80,244 36,703 68.62% 31.38% CD18 46,062 154,354 22.98% 77.02% CD29 35,312 93,732 27.36% 72.64% SBOE6 […]

Time once again to discuss Latino political participation

Let’s jump right in. The long wait continues for Houston and Harris County residents eager for a steep uptick in elected Latino representation. Hispanic residents last year were 42 percent of the county population, up from 23 percent in 1990, yet Houston has yet to elect a Latino mayor, and no at-large City Council members […]