ECPS: Cruz 38, O’Rourke 37

Closest result yet, but it comes with a couple of caveats.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke

A new Emerson College e-Poll finds the US Senate race neck and neck with Senator Ted Cruz at 38% and US Rep Beto O’Rourke at 37%; 4% are voting for someone else and 21% were undecided. In the Governor race, Gov. Greg Abbott has a 20 point advantage- 48% to 28% for Lupe Valdez a former sheriff of Dallas County, 3% were voting for someone else and 20% were undecided. The e-Poll was conducted 8/22-8/25, +/- 4.4 percentage points.

There is a stark difference in voter perception between the two Republican candidates running for re-election. Abbott has a 47% favorable and 33% unfavorable with 18% neutral and 2% never heard of him, Cruz has a 38% favorable and 44% unfavorable with 18% neutral and less than 1% have never heard of him.

The disparities in popularity and in the two elections appear to be driven by Independent voters. Ted Cruz has a 57% unfavorable rating among independents and a 25% favorable rating, conversely, Abbott, the other Republicans has a 41% unfavorable and 37% favorable rating among independents. These numbers play out in the ballot test where O’Rourke leads Cruz 45% to 25% among independents, while Abbott leads Valdez 38% to 27% among independents.

Adding to Cruz’s problem is that he faces a popular opponent, Beto O’Rourke has a 37% favorable and 25% unfavorable, 27% were neutral, while 11% had not heard of him. There is a generational divide between Cruz and O’Rourke voters. Among 18-34 year olds, O’Rourke leads by 19 points (47% to 28%); among 35-54 he leads by 8 points (45% to 37%), Cruz has a 14 point lead with those 55-74 (47% to 33%), and the incumbent Senator leads by 22 points among those over 75 (39% to 17%).

Of all the polls we’ve seen so far, this one has the lowest level of named candidates by respondents. In fact, all but one of the polls we’ve seen up till now had at least 80% of respondents pick either Cruz or O’Rourke. I don’t know that that makes this poll suspicious to me, but it is curious. The wide disparity between Cruz/O’Rourke and Abbott/Valdez, which is something we’ve discussed before, is a bit of an outlier as well, though in tune with the other most recent poll. ECPS has polled Texas twice that I know of, in 2016 and 2014, both times showing narrower Republican leads than the end result, though they were much closer to the mark in 2016 than 2014. Remember the mantra: It’s just another data point.

Be that as it may, this puts our 13-poll average at 46.23 for Cruz and 40.46 for O’Rourke. If we limit ourselves to the five polls done within the last 30 days, Cruz’s lead is a mere 3.4 points. It’s a tight race no matter how you look at it. Link via the Dallas Observer.

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One Response to ECPS: Cruz 38, O’Rourke 37

  1. Bill Daniels says:

    Why is Beto pulling a Dan Patrick and refusing to debate Cruz? Usually, that’s a move made by the incumbent, who doesn’t want to give name recognition to his opponent.

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