As I type this there are still a number of unsettled races in Texas, so things may change between now and tomorrow morning after we’ve all had an insufficient night’s sleep. But here’s how they stand at this time, and I will use my what I’ll be looking for post as a jumping off point.
Sen. Wendy Davis
First and foremost, State Sen. Wendy Davis was re-elected in SD10. I can’t begin to tell you how big that is. She was by far the Republicans’ biggest target this year, and she was again running in a district draw to favor a Republican candidate, this time without a Libertarian in the race to potentially draw votes away from her opponent. Yet she prevailed, riding an Election Day majority to a come-from-behind win, and thrusting herself squarely into the conversation for a statewide run at some point. Now the Democrats are assured of at least 11 Senate seats no matter how long it takes Rick Perry to call the special election to succeed the late Sen. Mario Gallegos, who also won, albeit much more easily. Again, this is huge.
As of this writing, Nick Lampson is trailing in CD14 by about 19,000 votes, with most of Galveston County still to report. I don’t know if he can win based on that. He fell short of the 60% he needed in Jefferson County that he supposedly needed, pulling 58.3% there. However, the Texas Tribune has called CD23 for Pete Gallego, who is leading by 6000 votes with only a handful of what are likely to be mostly friendly precincts still outstanding. Congrats to Rep.-Elect Pete Gallego!
It looks like Dems will exactly hit the target of +7 seats in the House for a total of 55. In addition to the three they won by default, they are leading in or have won HDs 34 (Abel Herrero), 78 (Joe Moody), 117 (Phillip Cortez), and 144 (Mary Ann Perez), while Rep. Craig Eiland has 53% with most of Galveston still out. Basically, Dems won four of the five districts in which they were the majority votegetters in most races in 2008, the exception being HD43, where turncoat Rep. JM Lozano appears to have held on. Sadly, Ann Johnson lost, but Gene Wu and Hubert Vo won easily.
Dems have picked up a seat on the SBOE as well, as Martha Dominguez has ousted Charlie Garza in SBOE1, while Marisa Perez won easily in SBOE3 and Ruben Cortez has held Mary Helen Berlanga’s seat in SBOE2. Considering what a massive clusterfsck this looked like after the Democratic primary, it’s a damn miracle.
With all but nine precincts reporting in Harris County, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. First, here’s the Presidential vote for Harris County as of this time:
Romney – 579,068
Obama – 579,070
Yes, Obama is leading Romney in Harris County by TWO VOTES. Good thing no one will call for a recount of that. The good news is that downballot Vince Ryan, Adrian Garcia, and Diane Trautman are all winning, while Mike Anderson has bested Lloyd Oliver. Sadly, Ann Harris Bennett appears to have fallen short by about 2400 votes. Fourteen of 20 Democratic judges won, while all five sitting Republican judges won, making the score 14-11 Dems overall.
Fort Bend County remained Republican. Obama will lose by a larger margin this time than in 2008 – he’s below 41% as I write this, but there are still 2000 precincts statewide to report. Given that, Keith Hampton never had a chance against Sharon Keller, but what is really disappointing is that he didn’t finish any closer to her than Obama did to Romney. However much newspaper endorsements meant in 2006, they meant squat to Keith Hampton. All of the Harris County-based appeals court candidates lost by about 10 points each. Incumbent Dem Diane Hanson lost on the Third Court, thanks in part to a peculiarly miniscule turnout in Travis County, but Dems knocked off three incumbent judges on the Fourth Court of Appeals.
Finally, all of the bond measures passed easily, as did the two Houston charter amendments and the Metro referendum. Dave Martin was elected to replace Mike Sullivan in Council District E with no runoff needed. Julian Castro’s pre-k referendum won. Marriage equality was victorious in Maine and Maryland, with Washington still out, and an anti-marriage equality referendum was narrowly losing in Minnesota. And Colorado legalized pot. Smoke ’em if you got ’em.
That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll have more later, including a bonanza of precinct analyses once I get the data. Thank you and good night.
UPDATE: Rep. Eiland did win, as did the other Democratic legislative candidates I mentioned, so it’s +7 in the House. Nick Lampson did lose, so it’s +1 for the Dems in Congress.
Steve Stockman’s back, so comedy is on the agenda again, unintentionally.
Yet again, Annise Parker’s administration has turned out to be a case of “One step forward, two steps back.” By cynically supporting the Metro referendum, she’s effectively killed any possibility of Houston ever developing a world-class public transportation system. This is a sad day for anyone who dreams of a cleaner and more livable city. Shame on the Mayor!!
Straight ticket voting both state and locally has come to dominate voting. There was next to no variation in state races, even with Keller. There was more in local races but no more than the two percent dip Oliver had. To quote what you once wrote about James Partsch-Galvan and apply it to Oliver, “No rational voter, given even minimal information about the candidates, would ever choose him.” We obviously have a tremendous amount of straight ticket voters to explain how a buffoon like Oliver got 48%. I guess that’s better than the alternative, which is that a large number of voters are stupid, ignorant, or actively trying to sabotage the county.
How good is the possibility that the 9 remaining boxes will lead ann bennet to win her race?
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Nick – Seems highly unlikely to me. Anything is possible, but I would not expect it.
My precinct had 6 provisional votes, not reflected in these totals. I do not recall if military ballots are still allowed to be counted if they arrive some days after the election date. If there are lots of other provisional ballots, if some of them count, and if some other ballots are still outstanding, it appears to me at first glance as if Coselli, Halbach, and Sullivan/Bennett are the only candidates in the zone where slight shifts could alter results.
They have 5 days for military ballots to come in. totals will shift but i don’t see any of the races shifting enough for outcome changes, based on the final total + military.
I suspect that if Fertitta had been the Dem candidate for DA that the Dems would have won that race too with a wider margin of victory for the down ballot candidates also in that column.
Provisional ballots have yet to be counted. THAT might end it for even more of my Fellow Republican Judges/ Candidates.
Is there a Sullivan-Bennett runoff since Sullivan didn’t crack 50%?
JJ – No. That does not apply to general partisan elections, i.e. races in which a straight-party ballot can be cast. In those elections, whoever gets the most votes wins, which is why Rick Perry won with 39% in 2006. All other elections – primaries, special elections, non-partisan municipal and school board-type races – require a majority, so for one of those there’d be a runoff. But not for this – Sullivan is in.
Good evening, Charles.
School board races are decided on a plurality, not a majority.
Thank you.
Mike Sullivan
Mike – First, congratulations on your victory last night. I wish you all the best in your new position. Second, I know you were a school board member, but I also know that my last two HISD Trustees – Anna Eastman and Natasha Kamrani – were elected in runoffs. So I think we are talking about two different things. If you’re referring to the State Board of Education, then I agree with you. If you’re talking about something else, I’m not sure what it is. Thanks!