That’s the sound of opportunity knocking.
Sen. Dawn Buckingham
State Sen. Dawn Buckingham, R-Lakeway, is set to run for land commissioner, according to two sources familiar with the decision not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Buckingham has made calls to potential supporters sharing her decision, said the sources. A Buckingham spokesperson, Matt Langston, said she was “seriously considering” running and would make an announcement soon.
The news of her decision comes two days after the current land commissioner, George P. Bush, announced he was running for attorney general next year, challenging fellow Republican Ken Paxton.
Buckingham was first elected in 2016 to represent Senate District 24 in Central Texas. While she won a second term last year, all members of the Senate have to run for reelection in 2022 due to redistricting, so she would have to give up her seat if she runs for land commissioner.
That’s the way the dominoes fall. Buckingham’s SD24 is strongly Republicans and got slighty more so over the course of the decade. It’s a mostly-rural/exurban district that’s partly Hill Country, partly I-35 Corridor, and partly West Texas, plus a piece of Travis County. It borders two Republican districts that used to be deep red but have trended strongly Democratic in SDs 5 and 25, plus one of the deepest red districts in SD28 that is lagging in overall population; SD24 itself was below the ideal population level as of 2018 (it was right at 900K at that time, up from 811K when the districts were drawn in 2011), so maybe it takes some blue precincts from the more-populated SD5 and SD25 while shifting whatever it can to SD28. I’m just spitballing here, redistricting is a lot more complex than that, but you get the idea. It’s still going to be a red district when all is said and done, but maybe 62-63% instead of 66-67%, and maybe with the potential to drift towards blue over time. Add it to the list of places where there will be a lot of action next May.
Elsewhere in people people resigning one office to (probably) run for another:
Texas GOP Chair Allen West announced his resignation Friday morning and said he is considering running for another office, potentially one that is statewide.
During a news conference here, West said a statewide run is “one of the things that I have to go to the Lord in prayer.” He said it would be “very disingenuous with so many people that have asked me to consider something” to not explore a run.
“Many men from Georgia, many men from Tennessee, came here to serve the great state of Texas, and so we’re gonna consider it,” said West, who grew up in Georgia. He added that he was announcing his resignation, effective next month, so that there is no conflict of interest as he weighs his next political move.
West, who has been most frequently discussed as a potential challenger to Gov. Greg Abbott, declined to say whether he was eyeing any particular statewide office, though he told a radio host earlier Friday morning that the host was “safe” to assume West was mulling a gubernatorial run. At the news conference, West also did not say when he would announce a decision on his next step, telling a reporter with characteristic combativeness that his “timeline is in my head and not in yours yet.”
West also raised the prospect he could run for Congress, noting he is a resident of the 32nd Congressional District, “and there’s a guy in Texas 32 I really don’t care for being my congressional representative.” The incumbent is Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas.
As for a statewide campaign, West said he would not be deterred by an incumbent having the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Trump has already backed Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick for reelection.
“You know, I don’t serve President Trump. I serve God, country and Texas,” West said. “So that does not affect me whatsoever.”
Yeah, I don’t like giving Allen West any space for his depravity, but you need to know what he might be up to. And yes, I know Sen. Buckingham isn’t resigning, she just would be giving up her seat to run for Land Commissioner. Anyway, that’s all the time we need to spend on this.
WHAT COUNTS AS A SCOOP THESE DAYS
Re: “according to two sources familiar with the decision not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.”
Assuming these two unidentified sources were on the receiving end of her calls, why would they have to be authorized to share with a journalist that they had been called or solicited for support? Why not just “people familiary with the matter”, WSJ-style?
And if, alternatively, they are her surrogates/agents, why mention them at all if they are “not authorized” by her, have nothing useful to disclosure, and a spokesperson is contemporaneously available to be quoted “on the record”?
Not to mention that the spokesperson doesn’t actually support the proposition that a decision to run for the office has been made, and arguably contradicts the duo of anons.
Can it fairly said that you are seriously considering doing somehting when you have already decided to do it?
Genre: Quality Journalism Critique
Topic/Issue: Media Reporting Standards
Not to diminish the value of the great public service provided by Mr. Kuff over the years, and the exquisite collection and presentation of disaggregated voting data, but:
DOMINOS FALLING ?
You gotta be kidding! — The Republican candidate just beat the Democratic one in the nominally nonpartisan Fort Worth mayor’s race 54% to 46%.
See
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/06/05/mattie-parker-victory-deborah-peoples-concedes-fort-worth-mayor/
And none of the multitudinous Dems even made it into the run-off in the recent special election to fill the vacancy in congressional district 6.
DEFYING THE MATH
The latter free-for-all contest is a perfect example of the abject lack of party cohesion and strategic thinking in the Tex-Dems’ camp.
How is it rational to send 10 candidates into the arena when the Republicans are stupid enough to do so, not to mention the quasi-incubency advantage (and name recognition) favoring the Republicans?
Any strategist worth his or her salt would have told Dems to have only the two strongest candidates throw their hats into the ring, in the hope of ending up with a runoff of Dem vs. Dem. After all, with more than ten candidates competing for votes, the threshold to get into the run-off could be very low. And Trump could only endorse only 1 on the GOP side, so even a possible Trump bump for that 1 GOP candidate wouldn’t preclude at least a Rep-Dem run-off thanks to 1 of the 2 Dems (1 of only 2 Dems) coming in second behind the Trump endorsee.
As for Allen West, he is very much worth paying attention to, and not just for entertainment or outrage cultivation purposes.
WARGAMING WEST
If Wannabe Governor West has any strategic sense, he will run as an independent against Abbott in the general election, rather than take him on in the primary. Why? – Two principal reasons:
(1) because Abbott will have then be forced to defend on two fronts simultaneously (if not three) in the general election, and will thus be weakened, in addition to being placed in a quandary with the thrust of his campaign rhetoric, what with challengers from opposite ends of the political spectrum, and
(2) because a plurality will be enough to win in November, giving West a better chance even though he couldn’t win with an outright majority. For the same reason, Beto would also have a chance to win in a three-way race, even if he lacks the capacity to cobble together a majority, and even if he gets clobbered for wanting to “take your guns away” in anti-Beto campaign commercials.
Are you listening, blue-wave prognosticators? Expectant sleeping giant awakeners?
If West challenges Abbott in the Republican primary, he needs to beat Abbott with an outright majority of votes. He would likely be crushed. Not only does Abbott already have Trump’s endorsement, West would be Abbott’s sole serious nemesis at that stage of the game (forget Huffines).
Given Abbott’s incumbency and fundraising advantage, West would be steamrolled, with much holler and clamor along the flattening path. Abbott would then be able to regroup and redirect his broadsides at Beto (or whoever his Dem opponent would be) in the general election campaign. And Abbott would still get much of the votes of West’s supporters – albeit grudging support — for lack of a more acceptable alternative. Surely, West’s insurgents wouldn’t go and become cheerleaders for Beto just to taunt Abbott. The only other option for them would be to sit it out, which — to the extent it happens — would also benefit Beto (or whoever the Dems’ candidate will be) by reducing the cumulative tally for Abbott.
Vote switching is worth 2, abstention at least 1, in the electoral calculus.
DISCLAIMER
This is just a third-party out-of-the-echo-chamber chaise-lounge opinion. Be free to disagree, and face the consequences. Rosy or otherwise.
Wolf,
Have you ever wondered why Dallas is a dangerous Hell hole, but drive west a bit, past Arlington, and Fort Worth has a much safer, nicer vibe? Ever considered why that is?
Unless you’re rich enough to live in the cloisered enclave of Highland Park, Turtle Creek, and the SMU area, if you want safety, you move OUT of Dallas.
D vs. HORSE ‘N MULE TOWN
I don’t agreed with your premise, Bill. Comparison of the incidence of crime requires good data, standardized definitions, and consistent methods of recordation and tabulation.
Anecdotes are for folks who refuse to think systemically, or simple don’t have the mental capacity.
As for the vibe as a personal experiential matter, it’s very good along the Katy Trail and the trailside ice house/beer garden, and even better at Kyle Warren Park. And you don’t have to live in the mentioned neighborhoods to enjoy the amenities.
That blackish Robert E. Lee and his horse on Turtle Creek have gone the way of the Lenin and Stalin busts (at least metaphorically speaking), but I am rather agnostic about it.
Arguably, the City should have left that piece of art in situ with appropriate interpretive panels and a comment chalkboard. Or perhaps the equestrian monument could been redeveloped into a coin-operated paint ball shooting range, so that those so inclined can take affordable shots at the controversial figure. Or just the horse.
Who said history cannot be hands-on and fun?