Early voting for the primary runoffs starts May 20, which is to say a week from Monday. Are we not excited?
Molly Cook
Few voters paid attention to Saturday’s state Senate District 15 special election that saw emergency room nurse Molly Cook prevail over state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, a result the veteran Democrat blames on himself.
He and his supporters got complacent, Johnson admitted Monday.
Now, the four-term state rep has less than three weeks to reverse Saturday’s defeat. The pair face off again in a May 28 Democratic primary runoff.
“It’s time to take the gloves off,” Johnson said, taking aim at Cook. “Obviously, your tricks have worked. Your lies invigorated your people. It engaged them and enraged them and they went to the polls.”
[…]
Johnson blamed his defeat on “poli-tricks,” pointing the finger at a series of mailers sent to voters by the Cook campaign that claimed Johnson is not trustworthy enough to defend Democratic values in the Senate.
One of the mailers claims Johnson has “caved to Greg Abbott too many times” and details perceived shortcomings in Johnson’s record on the issues of gun control, abortion rights, healthcare expansion and public school funding.
He also said he expects further political attacks in the weeks leading up to the primary runoff, specifically targeting his family life.
“I underestimated the impact,” Johnson said. “Sometimes when you tell a lie enough, in some peoples’ heads, it becomes the truth.”
Cook denied Johnson’s claim that her campaign is planning to roll out any negative campaigning about his family. A primary race is the most appropriate time for a “thoughtful and deliberate review” of Johnson’s record of service in the House, she added.
[…]
For months, Johnson has been framing himself as the race’s frontrunner, touting a long record of service on Houston City Council and in the state House of Representatives. He largely has avoided engaging in direct back-and-forth with Cook apart from an April 17 debate.
Now, he promises to confront the negative campaigning head on, teeing up what could be a contentious final few weeks leading to the runoff.
Cook, for her part, said she intends to continue the strategy that delivered Saturday’s victory and the title of senator-elect, striking a tone as the new frontrunner in declining to respond to Johnson’s comments.
“We are not taking a single thing for granted,” Cook said. “The district has placed a lot of trust in us, but that means they also trust me to go out and win on May 28.”
The win may give Cook a small boost in fundraising and enthusiasm among her supporters, although it is unlikely to have a large impact on the runoff, said Michael Adams, a professor of public affairs at Texas Southern University.
Johnson’s strategy prior to the special election was to present himself in the mold of Whitmire, a moderate Democrat known for dealmaking in a Republican-controlled Senate, Adams said.
“He started running a more centrist campaign thinking he could draw from the well of Whitmire’s supporters, and that wasn’t the case,” Adams said.
Adams also credited Cook’s multiple strong campaigns in the district, first running in 2022 running against Whitmire in the Democratic primary, for boosting her name ID despite not previously holding elected office.
I think there’s something to Johnson’s statement that he “got complacent” for the special election, which to be fair had mostly low stakes. I’m aware of quite a bit of canvassing done by the Cook campaign – which, again to be fair, is what you’d expect the candidate that trailed by 15 points in the previous election to do – as well as quite a bit of mail, including a number of attack mailers. Johnson’s campaign sent some mail, including some hits on Cook, as well, just not as much. I have no doubt that this sprint to the finish line will be loud and messy.
How loud and messy it gets will depend in part on how much each campaign has to spend. The most recent campaign finance reports we have – for Johnson and for Cook – are the 8 day reports for the special election. Here’s where they stand:
Candidate Raised Spent Loan On Hand
==============================================
Cook 291,236 239,404 0 88,079
Johnson 227,983 108,336 35,000 94,491
There will be an 8 day report for the primary runoff, which should drop on May 20, so we’ll see how busy they’ve been in the meantime. I agree with Professor Adams that the win on the 4th gives Cook a bit of momentum but not that much. It’s a different race and a different electorate, and while turnout won’t be as high as it was in March (49,603 total votes out of 53,083 cast ballots) it will be higher than it just was in the special. Cook needs her supporters and she needs to win over some of the folks who voted for a different candidate before. Johnson in theory just needs his own voters. The HD139 runoff should help Johnson; there’s no analogous race that ought to boost Cook. We’ll see how it goes.
As a reminder, my interview from the primary with Molly Cook is here and my interview with Jarvis Johnson is here. Go listen to them (again) and get ready to vote soon. Early voting for this one is strictly a five day Monday-to-Friday affair, so make sure you get right on it.