PREVIOUSLY: Senate and Congress
For the first time in awhile that I can remember, there’s not really a state or statewide legislative race generating much interest in Harris County. The candidates and incumbents for the Court of Appeals benches have been very active and visible, but that’s a different vibe. I may check in on those races later, but for now I wanted to focus on the legislative races of interest, plus the Railroad Commissioner. Back in January, there were multiple contested primaries to watch for, but those were all in deep blue districts. For this roundup, I decided to go back to the list of potentially competitive State Rep districts that I compiled after the misery that was the Republican primary, to hopefully focus some attention and energy on the idea that if we win a few of these, we can probably stop Greg Abbott’s larcenous voucher scheme in its tracks. So let’s go down that list of candidates and see what they tell us.
Katherine Culbert, Railroad Commissioner
Rachel Mello, SD08
Molly Cook, SD15
Fred Medina, HD14
Daniel Lee, HD26
Jonathan Gracia, HD37
Jennifer Birkholz, HD52
Dawn Richardson, HD54
Tony Adams, HD61
Michelle Beckley, HD63
Detrick DeBurr, HD65
David Carstens, HD66
Makala Washington, HD67
Denise Wilkerson, HD94
Carlos Walker, HD97
Elizabeth Ginsberg, HD108
Averie Bishop, HD112
Kristian Carranza, HD118
Laurel Jordan Swift, HD121
Chase West, HD132
Stephanie Morales, HD138
Dist Candidate Raised Spent Loan On Hand
==============================================================
RRC Culbert 6,685 3,530 2,400 0
SD08 Mello 2,538 3,309 3,324 865
SD15 Cook 136,296 198,153 0 51,511
HD014 Medina 5,036 2,164 0 1,373
HD026 Lee 5,000 0 5,000 5,000
HD037 Gracia 122,375 11,823 243,600 95,486
HD052 Birkholz 38,397 4,616 0 26,223
HD054 Richardson 15,417 10,471 0 6,344
HD061 Adams 3,429 851 0 0
HD063 Beckley 47,547 22,803 2,000 24,098
HD065 DeBurr 4,631 10,572 12,000 6,059
HD066 Carstens 5,900 2,400 7,000 4,000
HD067 Washington 2,477 1,820 750 657
HD094 Wilkerson 37,962 8,623 9,938 25,845
HD097 Walker 993 3,800 1,050 4,251
HD108 Ginsberg 113,169 24,458 0 95,984
HD112 Bishop 191,470 71,800 0 106,140
HD118 Carranza 263,930 48,718 0 191,088
HD121 Swift 108,117 41,561 25,000 35,486
HD132 West 47,430 6,818 0 40,286
HD138 Morales
I included Sen. Molly Cook (and that sure feels nice to type) out of curiosity, to see what her account looked like after two elections in quick succession in May. Given that her reporting period barely covered five weeks, that’s a nice showing. One of her stated promises is that she will be a force on the November campaign trail, and her ability to raise money will help with that. As for Rachel Mello, she’s running against Sen. Angela Paxton. I really wish this could have been a higher-profile race. If anyone deserves that kind of scrutiny this cycle, it’s Angela Paxton.
As for the House races, I would have liked to see more candidates raising enough money to run viable campaigns. I don’t know how much responsibility for that falls on the donor class, the TDP, the local parties, the candidates themselves, the Presidential race sucking all the oxygen out of the room, or something else. I realize that a lot of these races are aspirational, but we’re never going to get anywhere if we’re not trying our hardest to extend our reach. And as we saw in 2018, if the environment turns out to be more favorable than you thought, the wave can reach farther than you thought, with a little bit of assistance.
On the plus side, the races that are the most reachable also have the best-funded candidates so far, and they’re all in reasonable shape. That includes the last two Republican districts in Dallas County, two districts in Bexar County, and the Cameron County district the Republicans flipped in 2022. Winning even a couple of these could be enough to turn back the voucher tide. A handful of others have semi-decent money, which could be developed into more, so there is some potential for aspiration. That said, Greg Abbott has many millions at his disposal, and what he wants is a pliant Legislature. This is make or break stuff.
I’m pleasantly surprised by Chase West in HD132, who has outperformed my expectations so far. I’m disappointed that Stephanie Morales, who is a repeat candidate, has not filed any reports this year. Maybe it’s a system issue, but that should not be happening. HD26 is one of the reach-ier districts on this list, but the Republicans ousted their incumbent for not being sufficiently worshipful of Ken Paxton, so not putting our best foot forward there feels like a lost opportunity to me. There are very few local races of interest in our area. We’ve done our best work over the last 20 or so years turning red areas purple. We need to keep at it. I hope this is more of a priority in 2026.
I’ll look at the county races next. Let me know if you have any questions.
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