I’m sorry, but this doesn’t tell us anything.
Houston ISD voters are overwhelmingly willing to support a school bond package to upgrade campuses throughout the district, according to polling released Thursday, though questions remain about whether residents will back a $4.4 billion proposal on the ballot in November.
New polling by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research revealed three-quarters of 1,900 HISD residents surveyed in recent weeks said that they would back a school bond package that didn’t raise their property tax rates.
The finding bodes well for the district’s multibillion-dollar bond proposal this year, which doesn’t include a tax rate increase, but the temperature check leaves some uncertainty about whether voters will support the package.
The survey did not ask about HISD’s $4.4 billion proposal, which was not finalized at the time researchers conducted the polling, but rather a theoretical bond that did not raise taxes. HISD’s proposal would fund rebuilding campuses, fixing faulty air systems, upgrading school security and providing other improvements.
The results show little change in community support for an HISD bond since Rice researchers conducted similar polling six months ago. During that span, HISD’s leadership has made drastic budget cuts, ousted dozens of principals and posted major gains in student test scores.
“That’s really why we redid the survey in August, because a lot has happened between January and August in the district … so we really were curious to see if that was going to move the needle,” said Kori Stroub, associate director of research for the Kinder Institute’s Houston Education Research Consortium. “And it really didn’t at all.”
I mentioned the earlier poll in July, when the outlines of the bond issuance were coming into focus. There are several reasons why one should not take this seriously as a measure of support for the referendum.
1. It never actually asks the question whether one would vote for the specific bond package that will be on the ballot. I get that this survey was done before it was finalized, but that doesn’t change anything. It’s asking a general question about a theoretical bond, which to me is like a question pitting “generic Democrat” against a named Republican. It tells you something, but not what you want to know.
2. Along those lines, the first question the poll asks is about whether the respondent thinks Houston-area schools need more money to provide a quality education. I don’t have the exact wording of the question they asked (they never provide the questions used) but this is not only not the same thing – the question of how schools are funded is a legislative matter, and not what is on the ballot – it kind of primes the pump for the later ask about the bond.
3. The respondents are adults, in and out of HISD’s boundaries. Not voters, but adults. I expect this to be a high turnout election, but lots of adults in Harris County are not registered voters, and if we have 70% turnout of registered voters this fall, that will be an all-time record, by quite a bit. Also, too, not everyone who lives in HISD and shows up to vote will participate in that contest. In 2012, the last time we have an HISD bond referendum, which also happened to be in a Presidential election year, there was a 19% undervote rate (see page 49) in the referendum. Point being, their sample may be representative of HISD, but that’s far from the same thing as being representative of who will vote on the bond.
4. As discussed before in the previous post, HISD bond referenda are usually pretty popular, and usually pass with ease. As I said before, under normal circumstances I’d expect this referendum to do the same. But these are not normal circumstances, and the last time there was any kind of organized opposition to a bond, it barely passed. It is just not credible to me, given the recent history, that this one would pass with flying colors.
I don’t know what will happen with this bond. It may pass – the need is there, people want to support school bonds – but that absolutely cannot be taken for granted. I hope we get a real poll or two on this issue, because this wasn’t it. The Chron has more.
I share your view that the poll is meaningless. There is a large swathe of GOP and conservative voters who prefer home schooling or religious or private schools to public ones, or just don’t like any government spending, and I don’t expect them to vote for the bond. Coupled with the teacher’s union and opponents of Miles, I would expect the bond proposal to be in trouble.
Pingback: Different HISD bond referendum poll, different result | Off the Kuff