At least we’re asking the question. Usually, we don’t even get that.
Colin Allred
Democrats are closing the gap in their uphill campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with polls showing improvement for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and national Democrats’ spending in the race a month ahead of Election Day.
For the first time this race, Allred pulled ahead of Cruz in a statewide poll last month, and he continues to poll within a margin of error with Cruz. National Democrats announced Texas would be included in a multi-million-dollar ad buy last week. Allred is consistently outraising Cruz, bringing in more than $1 million in a day twice in the third quarter.
Allred has also built a bipartisan coalition, securing the support of both his party’s left-wing bigwigs and prominent Republicans who have soured on Cruz. This week, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both encouraged voters in Texas to turnout for Allred. Former U.S. Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who both were on the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, have endorsed Allred.
Independent race ratings groups have taken notice. Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on Tuesday. Inside Elections shifted its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” last week.
“Allred’s unique coalition of voters, the resources and work of his campaign, and Cruz’s weaknesses all put the Texas Senate race in play,” Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson wrote in a memo Tuesday. “There is more work to do as we continue sharing Allred’s message, mobilizing our supporters and reminding voters what they don’t like about Cruz – but the Allred campaign is entering the final weeks of the race in the strongest possible position to secure victory.”
Allred still has a challenge ahead of him. He is running against one of Republicans’ best known and best funded candidates in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat into statewide office in more than 20 years. Cruz is one of the most adored candidates among Texas conservatives along with Gov. Greg Abbott, while Allred has had to battle his low name recognition outside of Dallas all cycle.
And at the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump continues to poll ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. That could give down-ballot Republicans a leg up, though Allred has higher approval in the state than Harris and has strategically kept the presidential campaign at a distance.
[…]
Cruz’s campaign has been able to lean on the dominance of conservatism in the state. The state voted for Trump with a margin of more than 5 points in 2020. The Harris campaign is not viewing Texas as a battleground this cycle, focusing instead on more easily attainable swing states.
Cruz’s attacks on Allred have portrayed the congressman as aligned with the most progressive wings of the party, noting he has voted faithfully with his party’s leadership when it was in the majority, though Allred is running as a moderate Democrat.
But as demographics in the state shift with a growing moderate, diverse and suburban population, both candidates are making plays for the center. Cruz launched a group of Democrats for Cruz in the spring, and Allred announced a coalition of Republicans for Allred with Kinzinger on Wednesday.
“They’re calling it the Kamala effect,” O’Rourke said last week during a campaign stop with Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. “Young people are getting registered to vote in record numbers.”
Since O’Rourke’s near victory in 2018, Republicans have won by larger margins in statewide races, including by nearly 10 points in the 2020 race between Sen. John Cornyn and Democrat MJ Hegar. O’Rourke lost his 2022 gubernatorial race against Abbott by 11 points.
As far as Republicans for Allred goes, you can add this:
Lifelong Republican and former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley told me this morning that he will vote for Democrats
@KamalaHarris and @ColinAllredTX rather than @realDonaldTrump and @TedCruz.STORY: https://wfaa.com/article/news/politics/inside-politics/texas-politics/prominent-texas-republican-endorses-democrats-kamala-harris-colin-allred/287-1a3450ff-8796-49bc-9363-e8e4d726c7b8
— Jason Whitely (@JasonWhitely) 10:58 AM – 06 October 2024
Glenn Whitley is the kind of old school business-friendly Republican that used to be ubiquitous in Texas but are now largely relics. I don’t know how many votes this moves – people like Whitley have for the most part either fully consumed the Trump kool-aid or they’re already Democrats – but the more Whitleys out there saying they’re voting for Harris and Allred, the more potential there is for others to follow their lead. You can see some more of the crew that Rep. Kinziger brought along here.
The comparison of Beto’s result in 2018 to Dem results in other years is valid but limited. All those results, including Beto in 2018, were affected in part by the greater national atmosphere. 2018 was a Democratic year, 2020 was more neutral, 2022 was (at least in Texas) more of a Republican year. I think 2024 is somewhere between 2018 and 2020, but it’s hard to say which one it’s closer to.
The poll numbers, which are the basis for stories like this and the ratings change in the race, are cautiously encouraging, but there’s still just that one poll that shows Allred in the lead, and then only by one point, 45-44. Allred as noted has consistently outperformed Kamala Harris in the Texas polls, which allows for the possibility of him squeaking out a win while Trump still carries the state. I remain skeptical of that, as there’s two elections’ worth of evidence that Trump is the low performer among Republicans, but this is a weird year. This scenario still depends on Harris running a close enough race in Texas. I think she’s on track to do better than Biden did in 2020, but she’d probably need to get close to 48 percent for Allred to have a strong chance; this is on the assumption that the third party candidates will have a more minimal effect at the Presidential level.
It’s easy to get tangled up in the what-ifs, so let me sum up a bit. Yes, I think Allred has a fighting chance. I’d feel better about that if there were more polls showing him with a lead and/or more polls showing Kamala Harris within at most three points of Trump. I’d feel better about it if the Harris campaign were in on trying to win Texas, I’d feel better about if if the DSCC had been involved earlier, and I’d feel better if there were more legislative pickup opportunities with more visible campaigns for them. This is the hand we’ve been dealt, and the fact that Allred is competitive despite the lack of complementary positive factors is encouraging in its own way. I can’t get my hopes up too much, but I do have some hope. I hope that’s good enough.