Feels like I’ve heard less about them this year than in 2022, but as the story notes, the Dems are on offense this time.
Michelle Vallejo
It’s déjà vu in South Texas.
Texas’ two most competitive congressional races will feature rematches from 2022, when Republicans spent millions to make inroads in the majority Hispanic, historically Democratic stronghold. It’s the same cast of candidates facing off against each other as last election cycle in both the 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, but several factors may shake things up this November.
The presidential and U.S. Senate races at the top of the ticket are infusing new zeal that has trickled down into greater resources for Democrats in U.S. House races. Meanwhile, indications of growing GOP support among Hispanic voters in the region continue to fuel Republican hope.
Democrat Michelle Vallejo is making another run for the 15th Congressional District against freshman Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The race was the most competitive in Texas last cycle, and Republican leadership viewed De La Cruz’s victory as a watershed moment in GOP outreach to Hispanic voters. De La Cruz is the first Republican ever to represent the district, which runs from Guadalupe County down to the Mexican border near McAllen.
Meanwhile, Republican former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores will be challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the neighboring 34th District to regain her old seat. Gonzalez unseated Flores in 2022 after he had served three terms in the neighboring 15th district. He switched districts after the 15th district was redrawn to be more favorable to Republicans, making way for De La Cruz’s win. Flores represented the district for a few months in 2022 after it was prematurely vacated by U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, a Democrat. The district runs from the Mexican border on the Gulf of Mexico to just south of Corpus Christi.
In 2022, Republicans were on the offense and Democrats were on defense.
It was a midterm election during President Joe Biden’s first years in office — a recipe for Democratic losses. Republicans, meanwhile, were eager to prove they could break new ground among Hispanic voters.
“We had a more difficult political environment in ‘22 and that affected a lot of a lot of folks around the country without regard to their own standing or their own record,” said Cameron County Democratic Party Chair Jared Hockema.
Republicans put up millions behind their three candidates in South Texas that year, branding them the “Triple Threat” or the “Trio Grande.” In addition to De La Cruz and Flores, Republicans were also throwing their support behind Cassy Garcia in her challenge against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in neighboring Congressional District 28, anchored by Laredo. The three young, conservative Hispanic women were cast as the new faces of representation in the region, which had long been dominated by middle-aged Democratic men.
Nationally, Republicans under-performed that year, despite winning a slim majority in the U.S. House. In Texas, Gonzalez beat Flores by over 8 percentage points. Cuellar trounced Garcia by over 13 percentage points — so much so that Republicans nationally opted against investing in the race this year, even after Cuellar was indicted on bribery, money laundering and working for another government.
[…]
This year, the tables have turned and Democrats have wind at their backs.
Democrats have an extra boost from the top of the ticket. They have consistently outraised Republicans this year, and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket injected fresh enthusiasm and cash.
“Without a doubt, Kamala has brought some excitement in, especially in young women, but also just young people in general,” Gonzalez said, adding that the campaign is fielding hundreds of requests to volunteer and block walk for Democrats. “We never had that type of excitement down here in the Rio Grande Valley in my eight years in Congress.”
[…]
The House Majority PAC, a super PAC connected to House Democratic leadership, reserved over $2 million for ads in South Texas. It launched two ads in the region supporting Vallejo in English and Spanish after a poll the group commissioned found her within 3 percentage points behind De La Cruz.
That’s in contrast to last cycle when House Majority PAC pulled its reservations from Vallejo’s race, angering Texas Democrats who felt the state was once again getting overlooked by the bigwigs in Washington. Vallejo lost in 2022 by over 8 percentage points. The DCCC also declined to air any ads for Vallejo that year, though they funded staffing in the district.
This time, DCCC said it is staying faithful to Vallejo.
“Michelle Vallejo is one of our Red to Blue candidates, working hard. Those are all districts that we think we can flip,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said. “So we are working hard in all of those.”
In the 34th district, Gonzalez is also optimistic that he’ll keep his seat. House Majority PAC included him in its ad buy, releasing an ad attacking Flores as an extremist. His seat is considered safer for Democrats, with the district voting for President Joe Biden in 2020 by over 15 percentage points. He also is no longer a new commodity in the 34th district.
“The difference is now the new section of the district that I had never represented before has gotten to know me,” Gonzalez said. “We brought billions of dollars of federal resources to a lot of different projects along district 34. I’ve built a lot of personal relationships that we didn’t have before coming into the district.”
Both Democrats can also benefit from Texas Offense, Texas Democrats’ first coordinated campaign in decades led by Rep. Colin Allred’s Senate run. The initiative allows Democrats up and down the ballot to share resources to maximize efficiency. Allred, whose mother is originally from Brownsville, has campaigned in the Rio Grande Valley with both Vallejo and Gonzalez.
“Texas Offense has invested six figures into our mission of electing South Texas Democrats up and down the ballot,” said Monique Alcala, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “We’re in the field, block walking, phone banking and laser focused on connecting with as many voters as possible to secure victory in November.”
Despite Rep. Cuellar’s legal troubles, the Republicans aren’t seriously contesting his seat, so I’m going to ignore that one. Hard to run against a guy you would like to accuse of being crooked when your Presidential candidate is a 34-time felon with multiple other counts against him pending. Such is life.
For the record, CD15 went 50.9 to 48.1 for Trump over Biden in 2020, while Biden carried CD34 by over 15 points. In 2022, Abbott beat Beto by six points in CD15 and lost to him by 13 points in CD34. To be blunt, I’m not worried about CD34.
As far as this year goes, as noted Vallejo and Gonzalez are strong fundraisers, with assistance this year from the national Dems for Vallejo and the extra benefit of the coordinated campaign, and yes I still have to slap myself to remember that this is a thing we are doing, this year. I think if Harris and Allred can outperform Biden that boosts Vallejo, but de la Cruz ought to get some benefit from being the incumbent. How much the abortion issue plays a factor is a question I can’t answer. I’d say CD15 is lean Republican, perhaps on the line between that and tossup, but de la Cruz is a slight favorite.