Population and voting trends: 2002 and 2006 judicial elections, Part II

In the previous entry, I said there was another way we could compare the 2002 and 2006 statewide judicial elections to get a feel for how partisan voting patterns changed at the county level. Turns out that the two Democratic candidates for statewide judicial office in 2006, Bill Moody and JR Molina, were also candidates in 2006. Let’s see how they did in each year.

County Jefferson Willett Change Moody2 Moody6 Change Dem Net =================================================================== Webb 6,557 3,588 -2,969 29,653 13,295 -16,358 -13,389 Hidalgo 19,517 15,739 -3,778 43,163 28,576 -14,587 -10,809 El Paso 27,602 24,960 -2,642 69,700 60,271 -9,429 -6,787 Jefferson 21,574 18,747 -2,827 30,805 24,553 -6,252 -3,425 Maverick 1,085 800 -285 4,699 2,736 -1,963 -1,678 Cameron 15,315 13,633 -1,682 26,239 22,977 -3,262 -1,580 Willacy 845 593 -252 2,530 1,234 -1,296 -1,044 Brooks 349 207 -142 1,828 891 -937 -795 Zapata 393 237 -156 1,786 845 -941 -785 Angelina 9,838 11,161 1,323 8,260 8,866 606 -717 County Jefferson Willett Change Moody2 Moody6 Change Dem Net ================================================================== Montgomery 55,526 54,018 -1,508 15,711 20,632 4,921 6,429 Fort Bend 49,406 49,953 547 34,660 42,890 8,230 7,683 Williamson 48,389 43,193 -5,196 22,913 31,466 8,553 13,749 Denton 72,040 63,475 -8,565 28,145 35,905 7,760 16,325 Collin 92,093 82,834 -9,259 30,313 42,514 12,201 21,460 Bexar 137,679 117,031 -20,648 124,500 134,383 9,883 30,531 Tarrant 195,001 166,293 -28,708 128,590 133,600 5,010 33,718 Travis 98,489 73,382 -25,107 110,926 130,546 19,620 44,727 Dallas 217,489 168,162 -49,327 205,742 204,310 -1,432 47,895 Harris 336,493 275,807 -60,686 280,739 271,021 -9,718 50,968 County Cochran Keller Change Molina2 Molina6 Change Dem net ================================================================== Webb 5,117 3,575 -1,542 30,982 14,135 -16,847 -15,305 Hidalgo 19,267 16,124 -3,143 44,009 29,133 -14,876 -11,733 El Paso 34,133 32,492 -1,641 60,608 54,028 -6,580 -4,939 Jefferson 21,786 19,747 -2,039 29,687 24,046 -5,641 -3,602 Cameron 15,383 14,924 -459 26,519 23,444 -3,075 -2,616 Maverick 980 862 -118 4,810 2,805 -2,005 -1,887 Angelina 10,267 12,216 1,949 7,662 8,280 618 -1,331 Willacy 868 659 -209 2,538 1,258 -1,280 -1,071 Dawson 766 1,755 989 1,289 1,227 -62 -1,051 Jim Wells 2,517 2,314 -203 6,023 4,839 -1,184 -981 County Cochran Keller Change Molina2 Molina6 Change Dem net ================================================================== Montgomery 56,686 57,502 816 13,683 19,490 5,807 4,991 Fort Bend 49,567 52,085 2,518 33,157 42,670 9,513 6,995 Williamso 50,071 48,599 -1,472 19,859 30,545 10,686 12,158 Bexar 136,742 133,090 -3,652 118,952 127,905 8,953 12,605 Denton 73,752 68,435 -5,317 24,636 34,432 9,796 15,113 Collin 93,516 88,847 -4,669 27,634 41,003 13,369 18,038 Tarrant 199,542 180,813 -18,729 119,562 128,575 9,013 27,742 Dallas 221,884 186,960 -34,924 194,803 195,356 553 35,477 Harris 339,473 295,795 -43,678 267,941 262,496 -5,445 38,233 Travis 99,173 83,346 -15,827 99,833 131,035 31,202 47,029

Note again that each 2006 race also featured a Libertarian candidate; the 2002 race between Molina and Cathy Cochran included a Green Party candidate.

The list of counties and the reasons for the changes in their performance are familiar by now, and I don’t have any new insights to add. The reason why Moody and Molina each did better in this comparison is simple: The previous comparison matched them up with the top performing Democrat in 2002 for each court. As it happens, they were each the second-best performing Democrat; there were five contested Supreme Court races, with Moody doing better than three others and worse than one, and three contested CCA races, with Molina doing better than one and worse than one. They were the only Democratic challengers in 2006, so the comparisons can only get more favorable from here. As you can see, their percentage and total votes improved even though turnout was down by 100,000 to 300,000 votes. I don’t know how many ways there are for me to say that the trend has been decidedly Democratic, but I guess I need to find one more, because there it is again.

I had thought this would be the last thing to say about this subject, but since I started writing this entry I thought of one more comparison to make, which I’ll publish next week. As always, let me know what you think.

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