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Canvass report: Results by State Rep district

The next thing I did with the canvass data was to sort it all by State Rep district and sum up how the statewide and countywide campaigns did in each of them. Note that there were Democratic State Rep candidates in only 21 of the 25 districts – nobody is running in HDs 128, 130, 132, and 136 – so there was no easy way for me to single them out. Instead, I aggregated them; they show up as “Others” in the totals below.

I’ve got all the data beneath the fold, as it won’t fit on the main index page screen with the sidebar present. I’ll give some thoughts on the data here, then you can click on to peruse it yourself.

Reading the data left to right, the columns in the first (statewide) group are: State Rep District, Obama votes (in that district), Clinton votes (HRC), Obama percent, Clinton percent, Noriega votes (RJN), other Senate candidates’ votes, Noriega percent, share of the Presidential vote (Pres %), Sam Houston votes, Baltasar Cruz votes, Houston percent, Pres %, Linda Yanez votes, Susan Criss votes, Yanez percent, Pres %.

In the second (countywide) group, the first five columns are the same, then we have: Mincberg votes, Hassan votes, Mincberg percent, Pres %, Adrian Garcia votes, other Sheriff candidates’ votes, Garcia percent, Pres %, Diane Trautman votes, John Webb votes, Trautman percent, Pres %.

Some thoughts:

– Rick Noriega won a majority in 16 of the 21 state rep districts, as well as in the four undifferentiated districts. He fell short of 50% in three Republican districts (HDs 126, 127, and 150) and had his worst showing in two African-American districts, HDs 139 and 141; he did carry the other African-American districts – 131, 142, 146, and 147, garnering almost 63% in the latter. I feel pretty confident that if I were to look at the 2006 primary results, Gene Kelly would have had his best showing in the same places as he did here. I agree with Greg – people aren’t mistakenly voting for “the dead dancer” – ironically enough, I’d say it was Barbara Radnofsky who put that meme into play – they’re voting for a guy who’s run for Senate the last four times it was up for election. As we saw in 2002 when there were three serious candidates with money and/or name recognition, Kelly gets no votes. The less information, the more likely people are to say “oh, I know that guy” and push the button for him. I think it’s just that simple. And I think that in 2010 if KBH steps down, or 2012 whether she does or she doesn’t, there’ll be enough interest from enough Democrats with money and/or name recognition to render Kelly moot, if he’s still drawing breath and paying filing fees by then.

To get back to Noriega, he unsurprisingly ran strongest in his home district 145, collecting a whopping 84% of the vote there. He topped 70% in HDs 134, 143, and 148, and 60% in 138, 140, and 147. All in all, not too bad.

– Sam Houston beat Baltasar Cruz everywhere except in the four districts that will have Hispanic representatives – HDs 140, 143, 145, and 148, where Houston got a respectable 46%. Linda Yanez, on the other hand, beat Susan Criss everywhere except HD 134, where she got 48%. I confess, I’m amazed at how thoroughly Yanez dominated Criss. I really would have thought that Criss’ proximity to Harris County would have been an asset for her – and indeed, if you reverse Criss and Yanez’s vote totals for Harris County, Susan Criss would be the nominee today – but it just wasn’t. Maybe the Chron’s endorsement carried some weight, maybe Criss wasn’t so well-known here, maybe something else. I don’t know the answer to that.

– If you’d asked me before the primary where I thought David Mincberg would do the best, I’d have guessed his home district, HD 134. Close, but not quite – though he got 80.47% in 134, he got 81.45% in HD 143. He also topped 80% in HDs 140 and 144, and only dipped below 72% once (71.97% in HD141). For a first-time candidate, even one as strong as Mincberg, that’s an impressive showing.

– I feel confident that Adrian Garcia had the best name recognition of any candidate on the countywide ballot. He likely needed it to survive the three-way primary under these extreme turnout conditions. Garcia did well across the board, gaining a majority in every State Rep district except for 127 and 141, where he got 48 and 49%, respectively. And he cleaned up in the Hispanic districts, which overlap or are next to his City Council district – HDs 140, 143, 145, and 148. He also broke 60% in HDs 137, 138, and 134, which was a strong district for many of the primary winners.

– I thought Diane Trautman would do well in her home turf of HD127, and I was right – she got 71.90% of the vote there. But that was only her third best performance, as both HDs 134 (79.33) and 148 (74.17) came out more strongly for her. I’m thinking those two districts are going to play a key role in GOTV strategies for the fall.

That’s all I’ve got. Click on to see the data in all its glory, and let me know if you have any questions. Oh, and to answer the question I got before, this data all came from the County Clerk’s office. It will be available, though not in such friendly form, on HarrisVotes, if it’s not already.

Obama HRC O Pct H Pct RJN Oth RJN % Pres % Hou Cruz Hou % Pres % Yan Crs Yan % Pres % HD126 8841 5794 60.41% 39.59% 5738 5815 49.67% 78.94% 6102 4038 60.18% 69.29% 5627 4543 55.33% 69.49% HD127 8995 7741 53.75% 46.25% 6140 6639 48.05% 76.36% 6916 4205 62.19% 66.45% 5707 5434 51.23% 66.57% HD129 7808 8125 49.01% 50.99% 7194 5065 58.68% 76.94% 6367 3915 61.92% 64.53% 5005 5408 48.06% 65.35% HD131 16756 5476 75.37% 24.63% 9307 8580 52.03% 80.46% 9974 5967 62.57% 71.70% 9320 6654 58.34% 71.85% HD133 7154 5617 56.02% 43.98% 5385 4501 54.47% 77.41% 5081 3424 59.74% 66.60% 4835 3672 56.84% 66.61% HD134 14233 12937 52.38% 47.62% 14471 5835 71.26% 74.74% 10965 5255 67.60% 59.70% 7802 8245 48.62% 59.06% HD135 6925 6437 51.83% 48.17% 5405 5133 51.29% 78.87% 5088 4013 55.91% 68.11% 5332 3776 58.54% 68.16% HD137 3563 3299 51.92% 48.08% 3047 2208 57.98% 76.58% 2481 2031 54.99% 65.75% 2742 1793 60.46% 66.09% HD138 5229 6836 43.34% 56.66% 5979 3719 61.65% 80.38% 4765 3488 57.74% 68.40% 4809 3472 58.07% 68.64% HD139 16111 4813 77.00% 23.00% 7836 8679 47.45% 78.93% 9462 5138 64.81% 69.78% 8552 6066 58.50% 69.86% HD140 2971 6575 31.12% 68.88% 4828 3013 61.57% 82.14% 2764 4182 39.79% 72.76% 5310 1720 75.53% 73.64% HD141 14566 4722 75.52% 24.48% 6359 7944 44.46% 74.15% 7928 4531 63.63% 64.59% 6910 5602 55.23% 64.87% HD142 15198 5937 71.91% 28.09% 8279 8138 50.43% 77.68% 8830 5500 61.62% 67.80% 8155 6236 56.67% 68.09% HD143 1919 7237 20.96% 79.04% 5370 2201 70.93% 82.69% 2184 4398 33.18% 71.89% 5212 1457 78.15% 72.84% HD144 4312 7860 35.43% 64.57% 5994 4213 58.72% 83.86% 4723 4251 52.63% 73.73% 5474 3592 60.38% 74.48% HD145 2546 8344 23.38% 76.62% 8180 1535 84.20% 89.21% 2461 5634 30.40% 74.33% 6685 1465 82.02% 74.84% HD146 19482 7569 72.02% 27.98% 11728 9329 55.70% 77.84% 11926 6097 66.17% 66.63% 9815 8130 54.69% 66.34% HD147 16541 6781 70.92% 29.08% 11656 6875 62.90% 79.46% 9638 6143 61.07% 67.67% 8989 6770 57.04% 67.57% HD148 6272 9888 38.81% 61.19% 9913 3374 74.61% 82.22% 5127 5966 46.22% 68.64% 7439 3729 66.61% 69.11% HD149 8991 6954 56.39% 43.61% 6290 5836 51.87% 76.05% 6120 4437 57.97% 66.21% 6322 4223 59.95% 66.13% HD150 8427 7062 54.41% 45.59% 6141 6264 49.50% 80.09% 6549 4428 59.66% 70.87% 5976 5011 54.39% 70.93% Others 31373 30039 51.09% 48.91% 24063 23026 51.10% 76.68% 24433 16120 60.25% 66.03% 21695 18826 53.54% 65.98%
Obama HRC O Pct H Pct Min Has Min % Pres % Gar Oth Gar % Pres % Tman Webb Tman % Pres % HD126 8841 5794 60.41% 39.59% 6464 2419 72.77% 60.70% 4941 4587 51.86% 65.10% 6298 2836 68.95% 62.41% HD127 8995 7741 53.75% 46.25% 7529 2133 77.92% 57.73% 4972 5394 47.96% 61.94% 7511 2936 71.90% 62.42% HD129 7808 8125 49.01% 50.99% 6802 2428 73.69% 57.93% 5008 4494 52.70% 59.64% 6315 2947 68.18% 58.13% HD131 16756 5476 75.37% 24.63% 9912 4070 70.89% 62.89% 8048 7158 52.93% 68.40% 9678 4690 67.36% 64.63% HD133 7154 5617 56.02% 43.98% 5390 2040 72.54% 58.18% 4207 3534 54.35% 60.61% 5230 2158 70.79% 57.85% HD134 14233 12937 52.38% 47.62% 12899 3130 80.47% 59.00% 9679 5286 64.68% 55.08% 11570 3015 79.33% 53.68% HD135 6925 6437 51.83% 48.17% 5843 2034 74.18% 58.95% 4727 3805 55.40% 63.85% 5476 2553 68.20% 60.09% HD137 3563 3299 51.92% 48.08% 2856 1069 72.76% 57.20% 2539 1682 60.15% 61.51% 2702 1189 69.44% 56.70% HD138 5229 6836 43.34% 56.66% 5808 1471 79.79% 60.33% 5086 2910 63.61% 66.27% 5217 2077 71.52% 60.46% HD139 16111 4813 77.00% 23.00% 9320 3413 73.20% 60.85% 8208 6246 56.79% 69.08% 8614 4757 64.42% 63.90% HD140 2971 6575 31.12% 68.88% 4564 1121 80.28% 59.55% 5727 1614 78.01% 76.90% 3937 2044 65.83% 62.65% HD141 14566 4722 75.52% 24.48% 7465 2907 71.97% 53.77% 5745 5969 49.04% 60.73% 7158 3842 65.07% 57.03% HD142 15198 5937 71.91% 28.09% 8828 3297 72.81% 57.37% 8031 5783 58.14% 65.36% 7973 4655 63.14% 59.75% HD143 1919 7237 20.96% 79.04% 4184 953 81.45% 56.11% 5439 1365 79.94% 74.31% 3571 1781 66.72% 58.45% HD144 4312 7860 35.43% 64.57% 6219 1554 80.01% 63.86% 5130 3466 59.68% 70.62% 5159 2819 64.67% 65.54% HD145 2546 8344 23.38% 76.62% 5288 1325 79.96% 60.73% 7235 1290 84.87% 78.28% 4622 2086 68.90% 61.60% HD146 19482 7569 72.02% 27.98% 12391 4316 74.17% 61.76% 9227 8385 52.39% 65.11% 11693 5096 69.65% 62.06% HD147 16541 6781 70.92% 29.08% 10041 3967 71.68% 60.06% 9201 6310 59.32% 66.51% 9751 4571 68.08% 61.41% HD148 6272 9888 38.81% 61.19% 7581 2076 78.50% 59.76% 9737 2262 81.15% 74.25% 7226 2516 74.17% 60.28% HD149 8991 6954 56.39% 43.61% 6443 2625 71.05% 56.87% 5319 4390 54.78% 60.89% 6198 3008 67.33% 57.74% HD150 8427 7062 54.41% 45.59% 7142 2337 75.35% 61.20% 5379 4827 52.70% 65.89% 6750 3019 69.10% 63.07% Others 31373 30039 51.09% 48.91% 27155 8527 76.10% 58.10% 19311 17855 51.96% 60.52% 24222 11343 68.11% 57.91%

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